800+ all-time GOAT Augustine Choge has already done that, except plus sub 1:45 and minus sub 27. But he's already proven capable of the sub 27 by running sub 60 HM twice.
Jakob will never be capable of a sub 60 HM. Too big. Sub 27 is debatable. Choge will run sub 27 if he ever decides it's important to him. Unfortunately he doesn't seem to understand his unique place in history and might not bother.
Sub 27 for 10k and sub 60 for the half are not equivalents.
A sub 27 is far more impressive.
Only 72 men have ever broken 27 minutes for 10,000m, and only 3 of them are non-African born (Fisher, Rupp, Solinsky).
However, 276 men have broken 60 for a half, including 13 non-African born runners.
To add, a 26:59 10k is worth 1227 WA points; whereas a 59:59 HM is worth 1187.
Not 276 but 277 - too much to comprehend?
But for sure this number is irrelevant (Choge is no. 120).
But - yes - BW is among the most stupid letsrunners.
Yomif Kejelcha is the closest with his 3:31 1500 being the only outlier.
On paper he might be closer, but looking at each of their career trajectories, Jakob is much closer. Jakob benefits with the typical moving up the distance as he gets older, whereas Kejelcha can’t with the shorter distances. Kejelcha hasn’t run a 1500/mile in several years and looks to have turned his focus to these longer distances. His 1500 PB was from almost 5 years ago. I don’t see him being a serious contender to break the 3:30 barrier at this point in his career. Jakob probably won’t focus on the longer distances until a few more years, and we could have a field day of what he could run a 10k in. There’s probably a handful of threads devoted to that.
Does J Ingebrigtsen want to impress a handful of posters on this website? Does J Ingebrigtsen want to get the unofficial let'srun award for greatest range ever? Does J Ingebrigtsen instead want to earn 1500m gold in Paris? J Ingebrigtsen (if p.e.d. clean) cannot be a sub-27 10000m guy and also a 1500m international gold medalist within a short time period.
Does J Ingebrigtsen want to impress a handful of posters on this website? Does J Ingebrigtsen want to get the unofficial let'srun award for greatest range ever? Does J Ingebrigtsen instead want to earn 1500m gold in Paris? J Ingebrigtsen (if p.e.d. clean) cannot be a sub-27 10000m guy and also a 1500m international gold medalist within a short time period.
I mean, Jakob’s not running the 10k this season or anything. Right now, his focuses are on the 1500 and 5k. The speculation is just that he could run an excellent 10k if he aimed for that, and in several years when he moves up in distance (as all runners do), he will have the chance to prove us right.
On paper he might be closer, but looking at each of their career trajectories, Jakob is much closer. Jakob benefits with the typical moving up the distance as he gets older, whereas Kejelcha can’t with the shorter distances. Kejelcha hasn’t run a 1500/mile in several years and looks to have turned his focus to these longer distances. His 1500 PB was from almost 5 years ago. I don’t see him being a serious contender to break the 3:30 barrier at this point in his career. Jakob probably won’t focus on the longer distances until a few more years, and we could have a field day of what he could run a 10k in. There’s probably a handful of threads devoted to that.
I don’t think he’ll ever do it, sure. But I think it’s possible he could’ve done it last year if he’d run a couple DL 1500s. Guy closed a 12:41 with 4:54 for the last 2k, and lost to Jakob by .01 in a 7:23 race with his last 400 in ~54 flat. 3:29.x in an Oslo or Lausanne type race wouldn’t be surprising.
To malmo of 3+ years ago: surely Komen could have broken 27 minutes. It would be weird if a 3:29/12:39 guy couldn’t break 27. His PB was only 27:38, but that was in a season when he ran four 3ks in 7:44, 8:03, 7:51 and 7:45, and didn’t place higher than 7th in any of them. Take ‘96-‘98 Komen and it’s a whole different story.
Does J Ingebrigtsen want to impress a handful of posters on this website? Does J Ingebrigtsen want to get the unofficial let'srun award for greatest range ever? Does J Ingebrigtsen instead want to earn 1500m gold in Paris? J Ingebrigtsen (if p.e.d. clean) cannot be a sub-27 10000m guy and also a 1500m international gold medalist within a short time period.
Classic 600 yd. guy. I would contend that Jakob has been capable of 3:27 or sub-27 on the very same day.
”Range” tends to be a little overrated on this board, because it’s not a great priority for most of the top athletes. So when for example Jimmy Gressier ran 3:33.90 and 59:46 last year, there were posters impressed by his so-called-exceptional range, when really that’s entirely normal for a 12:56 5,000m runner.
Does J Ingebrigtsen want to impress a handful of posters on this website? Does J Ingebrigtsen want to get the unofficial let'srun award for greatest range ever? Does J Ingebrigtsen instead want to earn 1500m gold in Paris? J Ingebrigtsen (if p.e.d. clean) cannot be a sub-27 10000m guy and also a 1500m international gold medalist within a short time period.
Classic 600 yd. guy. I would contend that Jakob has been capable of 3:27 or sub-27 on the very same day.
”Range” tends to be a little overrated on this board, because it’s not a great priority for most of the top athletes. So when for example Jimmy Gressier ran 3:33.90 and 59:46 last year, there were posters impressed by his so-called-exceptional range, when really that’s entirely normal for a 12:56 5,000m runner.
Exactly. Even though Jakob is focusing on the 1500-5k range he is incredibly strong and runs a lot of miles. He wouldn't have to change his training all that much to run a sub-27 10,000, if at all.
I don't think the sub 3:26 will happen, or the sub 26:10. But I could see the sub 7:20 and sub 12:35. The 3k/5k seems to be his best range right now, and he's getting to the point where his natural speed is maxed out so his 1500 will have a tough time getting much faster, another full second would be a lot.
At this moment the relevant question should be: Will he be the first athlete ever to run
sub 3:26 in the 1500m
sub 7:20 in the 3000m
sub 12:35 in the 5000m
and sub 26:10in the 10000m
I think he can do it provided HE OVERCOMES HIS INJURY PROBLEMS.
Jakob is extremely hard to predict. -In 2020 and 2021 I thought he would take down the mile / 1500m WR’s in the coming two seasons (given no injuries), and also that 7.20 and 12.35 would fall…
In 2022 I was (very) disappointed by his mile pb and 1500m races. -Especially one of his 3.29 flats (very good conditions and pacing). I was of course aware of his indoor WR 3.30.60, but I don’t even know if that translates to sub 3.29 outdoors… Jakob also had a few words about that he maybe had reached his peak (although not gotten that peak out in times). But the 5000m capacity looked promising, and his hilly xc Euros the same, and the rumours of him being in “monster shape” in December before sickness struck…
The 2023 racing season was extremely uplifting and surprising, after long time winter sickness and injuries. Here he showed a potential he never before even has alluded to (I think his Oly race must be somewhat down played due to the advantage of Tim as pacer; it can not have been a near 3.26.0 run; Willis f.ex was far to nice in his estimate there IMO).
2023 showed something I didn’t know: Jakob has struggled constantly with injuries (and quite a lot with sickness) since late 2019 and through the entire 2023 (even in between his important summer and fall races) -his anticipated invulnerability and consistency haven’t been real at all. The bricks on bricks, and slowly upping of mileage and threshold works that more than everything would reveal Jakob’s enormous capacity seemed to be a myth…
So it’s seems like Jakob can do stellar performances without his “consistency training formula “, at least for a while. But maybe he only can glide a season or two on past consistency before he again must hit this under current of unbroken brick on brick… -Anyways: This leaves us extremely impressed but also insecure about his future. Much more insecure than before, but also with glimpses of never before seen capacity…
So to be more in touch with your post: Yes, I think Jakob in 2023 showed capacity to break 3.26 in a year or two. He could already have had the mile and 3000m WR’s (not jet lag, better pacing, more rested before the 3000m in Eugene). And maybe sub 12.35 (he thinks so himself, and although he hasn’t run an all out 5000m I think he may know what he is talking about based on training and real gut feeling).
The 10000m? -Very hard to say. Of course clearly sub 27 (based on the Euros xc), but I doubt even Jakob knows for sure based on his training / no training done similar to an all out 10k… Saying that his training is obviously as suitable for 10k/half marathon as for 1500m/5k (with some minor adjustments).
Some other fast athletes (1500/5000m), like Komen and Mo Farah never ran fast pb’s in the 10k /half marathon, whereas Bekele and Haile and a few others obviously did. I think we can hope Jakob is as good as he thinks also here, but we need a race or two…
My conclusion is this: It’s a little depressing that Jakob has lost his consistency and “bricks on bricks”. But it’s really interesting that he can progress significantly even when being sick and hurt…