Is Florida About to Make the Same COVID Mistake Again?

Again, I just don't see any facts behind this position. People in the Northeast generally wear masks and have not engaged in reckless behavior, and there is a strong testing apparatus. When they have done dumb things (that wedding in Maine, college kids partying at BC/SUNY Oneonta etc.) there have been spikes. If the herd immunity thing was legit, it wouldn't matter. Not many people have it in the Northeast, which is a great starting point. People mostly follow the rules/common sense. That is why the numbers are low in my view.

joedirte wrote:

The Northeast (at least those areas with high death rates this past winter / spring) is the safest place in the country right now because most of it is close to herd immunity. The whole reason their numbers dropped off was due to that factor and not due to shut downs. Areas that were not hit as hard initially will see some spikes when they really have to start heating again. The places most likely to have outbreaks are those that didn't allow it to run through their population.

According to the test data Florida has had a much higher total number of infections per capita than New York. Why didn't Florida reach "herd immunity" in July when the cumulative infection rates were similar?

5.22% positive is the number for today. An improvement on yesterday, but more worse than the 10 days before yesterday. We'll see what happens.

Monkeys typing wrote:

joedirte wrote:

The Northeast (at least those areas with high death rates this past winter / spring) is the safest place in the country right now because most of it is close to herd immunity. The whole reason their numbers dropped off was due to that factor and not due to shut downs. Areas that were not hit as hard initially will see some spikes when they really have to start heating again. The places most likely to have outbreaks are those that didn't allow it to run through their population.

According to the test data Florida has had a much higher total number of infections per capita than New York. Why didn't Florida reach "herd immunity" in July when the cumulative infection rates were similar?

Simple. New York only tested individuals with symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization due to testing shortages when the epidemic was raging in New York. Florida has been testing much more broadly (asymptomatic individuals, mildly symptomatic individuals, etc.). New York is probably close to 70% immunity at this point. Antibody studies likely under estimate the actual level of immunity in a population due to limits in the test sensitivity (this was exhibited in studies of infected individuals that were tested 2-3 months after recovery by Vanderbilt and UCLA, where the antibody levels had dropped below the detectable level of the test in about half the patients, even though they likely still had immunity).

Update:

Florida is mostly stable. Cases aren't low by any means (regularly 2000-3000 with 4-6% adjusted positivity, 6-8% raw numbers). That being said, I can't say we've seen a spike or a major uptick in spread...for now.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Update:

Florida is mostly stable. Cases aren't low by any means (regularly 2000-3000 with 4-6% adjusted positivity, 6-8% raw numbers). That being said, I can't say we've seen a spike or a major uptick in spread...for now.

Translation, those who have been claiming a decline in deaths is primarily related to a level of herd immunity are correct. Those claiming social distancing measures worked were wrong..... again.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Update:

Florida is mostly stable. Cases aren't low by any means (regularly 2000-3000 with 4-6% adjusted positivity, 6-8% raw numbers). That being said, I can't say we've seen a spike or a major uptick in spread...for now.

Translation, those who have been claiming a decline in deaths is primarily related to a level of herd immunity are correct. Those claiming social distancing measures worked were wrong..... again.

Just like Sweden, right? (checks notes) Uh, oh.

Precious Roy wrote:

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

Translation, those who have been claiming a decline in deaths is primarily related to a level of herd immunity are correct. Those claiming social distancing measures worked were wrong..... again.

Just like Sweden, right? (checks notes) Uh, oh.

Please Elaborate? Sweden has had 7 day moving average of 1-2 deaths a day for around 2 months. Where is the issue?

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

Translation, those who have been claiming a decline in deaths is primarily related to a level of herd immunity are correct. Those claiming social distancing measures worked were wrong..... again.

You CANNOT have herd immunity with about 10% of the population infected.

The decline WAS because of all the measures you mentioned in the later part of your post, plus with kids staying at home. Watch what happens in exactly 2 weeks from now (public schools in Dade and Broward County going back to in-person classes this week).

Silly sauce as usual Primo.

Precious Roy wrote:

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

Translation, those who have been claiming a decline in deaths is primarily related to a level of herd immunity are correct. Those claiming social distancing measures worked were wrong..... again.

Just like Sweden, right? (checks notes) Uh, oh.

I'm guessin' Roy boy ain't check Sweden's 20 year mortality rates. Might cause his despair narrative to crumble though we know he's impenetrable to facts.

Sorry doomers- I know you want mass death to fulfill your miserable lives. But there is plenty of misery that you have caysed due to the policies you promote. You could at least drink a toast to that.

https://twitter.com/ianmSC/status/1313885563255103493

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Again, I just don't see any facts behind this position. People in the Northeast generally wear masks and have not engaged in reckless behavior, and there is a strong testing apparatus. When they have done dumb things (that wedding in Maine, college kids partying at BC/SUNY Oneonta etc.) there have been spikes. If the herd immunity thing was legit, it wouldn't matter. Not many people have it in the Northeast, which is a great starting point. People mostly follow the rules/common sense. That is why the numbers are low in my view.

Now that was funny. Mask fetishists always are. People in the Northeast don't wear any more masks than in Florida. I was in both in July. Beaches in NY were just as packed as in Florida and few were wearing masks in both. Yet, the left liked to portray Florida as evil grandma killers. So sad when people only rely on information from the MSM.

It's kind of like the WWE of sports.

Allen53 wrote:

Sorry doomers- I know you want mass death to fulfill your miserable lives. But there is plenty of misery that you have [caused] due to the policies you promote. You could at least drink a toast to that.

"The most recent weeks still have a lot of additions coming, but the trends continue pointing in that direction."

Yes, exactly. Given the lag of weeks (and in some cases *months*) in deaths' being reported to CDC, it's a little difficult to make much of a statement about trends.

...But I certainly hope deaths from COVID-19 are fewer and fewer. Don't want anyone else to die from this terrible disease. By the way:

I wish the best to everyone.

A different chart here--still showing a slight downward trend in the USA! Hope there are fewer and fewer deaths through the rest of the year (none would be nice!--though not very realistic).

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GGRV_enUS751US751&biw=1745&bih=881&ei=1CB-X8PFCq-HytMPxdCd8AM&q=september+covid+deaths+in+united+states&oq=september+covid+deaths+in+united+states&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzIICCEQFhAdEB4yCAghEBYQHRAeMggIIRAWEB0QHjIICCEQFhAdEB4yCAghEBYQHRAeMggIIRAWEB0QHlCRvAVYtMwFYI7eBWgAcAB4AIABX4gB3giSAQIxNJgBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXrAAQE&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjD_7WDpaPsAhWvg3IEHUVoBz4Q4dUDCA0&uact=5

joedirte wrote:

The Northeast (at least those areas with high death rates this past winter / spring) is the safest place in the country right now because most of it is close to herd immunity. The whole reason their numbers dropped off was due to that factor and not due to shut downs.

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY FALSE. Hard to overstate how wrong this is.

The virus tore through Orthodox communities during the spring and some have been speculating that those groups might be close to herd immunity. But in fact the current slight uptick in NYS as a whole is being fueled by high rates of infection...in Orthodox communities.

The US as a whole is reliably estimated to have 85-90% of its population still vulnerable to infection.

lease wrote:

Allen53 wrote:

Sorry doomers- I know you want mass death to fulfill your miserable lives. But there is plenty of misery that you have [caused] due to the policies you promote. You could at least drink a toast to that.

"The most recent weeks still have a lot of additions coming, but the trends continue pointing in that direction."

Yes, exactly. Given the lag of weeks (and in some cases *months*) in deaths' being reported to CDC, it's a little difficult to make much of a statement about trends. . . .

More up to date sources of COVID deaths (dotted red line) show the trend over the last month or so to be pretty flat at around 5000 deaths/week. Claiming trends on the tail end of the excess death data is misleading at best.

CircusClowns wrote:

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

Translation, those who have been claiming a decline in deaths is primarily related to a level of herd immunity are correct. Those claiming social distancing measures worked were wrong..... again.

You CANNOT have herd immunity with about 10% of the population infected.

The decline WAS because of all the measures you mentioned in the later part of your post, plus with kids staying at home. Watch what happens in exactly 2 weeks from now (public schools in Dade and Broward County going back to in-person classes this week).

Silly sauce as usual Primo.

School has been in person since the beginning of September in Hillsborough County (Tampa bay) one of the largest school districts in the entire nation, no issues thus far.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

Precious Roy wrote:

Just like Sweden, right? (checks notes) Uh, oh.

Please Elaborate? Sweden has had 7 day moving average of 1-2 deaths a day for around 2 months. Where is the issue?

That's rich. The fact that seven day moving average on positives has more than tripled since the beginning of September clearly shows that there is no herd immunity. But now you move the goal posts and look at deaths, which lag infection by about 4 weeks.