Is Florida About to Make the Same COVID Mistake Again?

Florida closed up like everybody else. In Florida the counties and municipalities have a lot of power and the governor let them make the decision to lock down, which they did, before the redundant state-wide lockdown orders came (in response to CNN spreading a bunch of viral videos of crowded beaches, most of which were old or used deceptive camera angles). They also focused on keeping covid out of nursing homes. Compare deaths in Florida versus New York and compare the mainstream media coverage of each and it's surreal.

GlobalRebellion wrote:

Florida closed up like everybody else. In Florida the counties and municipalities have a lot of power and the governor let them make the decision to lock down, which they did, before the redundant state-wide lockdown orders came (in response to CNN spreading a bunch of viral videos of crowded beaches, most of which were old or used deceptive camera angles). They also focused on keeping covid out of nursing homes. Compare deaths in Florida versus New York and compare the mainstream media coverage of each and it's surreal.

This is incorrect in the sense that while Florida did this for a time, they stopped and then had a large surge as I said.

In June, indoor dining, gyms etc. were open throughout the state. They had to be re-closed in July. Here's one article for instance:

As I'm saying, this exact scenario is what I'm worried is about to happen.

I'm going to Disney World next month, yes it's been open since July 11th and won't be closing. Common sense people, that's all it takes;)

No. They are wearing masks, Most of their super spreaders have developed immunity or died and the climatic conditions will soon be shifting back in their favor. They should be fine until next July. Hospitalizations have dropped 60% or so from their peak.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/florida

“Flattening the curve” never meant elimination of the curve. At some point the curve will happen. It is inevitable.

Wrong, Florida didn't have much virus to begin with, in comparison to New York, which is why not that many died for a long time. There was a great deal of resistance to standard public health measures but they did close the schools March 13 and close access to nursing homes. But they left too much open and re-opened as much as possible far too soon. As of mid June, they had 3500 dead or so. Now, it's over 11,000. They also averaged 10-14k cases per day in July. Now, they've cut down by 60-70% in daily testing so that accounts for a good proportion of case drops, while infection rates aren't that much better, barely under 13% the last time I checked last week. But they re-opened schools throughout most of the state, excepting Miami area, as well as colleges and universities, and that is already starting to appear in the numbers. Within a few weeks, there will be a lot of cases from transmission in schools and colleges, which in turn will lead to a spike in deaths over the next six weeks. As flu emerges, the combination will lead to a bad season. Bottom line, though, is that they allowed, so far, two spikes, the second particularly deadly with about 8,000 deaths in 2 1/2 months, because of lax policies.

Flattening the curve never meant elimination of the curve wrote:

“Flattening the curve” never meant elimination of the curve. At some point the curve will happen. It is inevitable.

If it was so inevitable, why aren't countries like Japan, South Korea or Germany experiencing what Florida has. Numerous US States haven't had massive surges like Florida as well.

Schools are open in most counties, not sure about the Miami area. Restaurants and gyms are open in most counties as well. You have to wear a mask into the restaurant or gym, but not once you sit down at the restaurant or start your work out (at my gym at least).

Masks are mandatory in most indoor places like shopping malls and grocery stores. They are also mandatory in schools. Sports have started back for kids as well.

Cases and hospitalizations are way down in FL.

California averaged just over 5,000 new cases per day over the last week. Florida averaged under 3,000 per day over the same time frame.

FL had 52 deaths per 100,000 residents, below the US average of 55 deaths per 100,000. It barely cracks the top 20 states for this metric. CNN likes to pick on the Republican governor, but for the third most populous state with Tourism as a major industry, his record isn’t nearly as bad as they make it seem.

Texas is on a similar path. The governor is giving hints of lifting restrictions. Bars are currently closed and restaurants are supposed to be at 50% capacity. Condition have improved significantly from mid to late July when ICU capacity was blown. But we are still at a pretty significant level of community spread with an average of 4-5k cases a day. To put it into perspective, France is freaking out because they are up to 4-5k cases a day. France would have to be at 15k cases a day to match per capita what is currently considered "progress" in Texas.

This is definitely a new phase for the virus with a lot of uncertainty. It was pretty obvious that the virus was going to surge after the southern states reopened so quickly. Too many people just went about their lives as if nothing happened. Now, people are generally doing a much better job of doing the right thing. I see masks worn everywhere I go now. Testing capacity has greatly expanded since reopening in June.

I think there is a chance that cases continue to decline through September but then start to reverse significantly in mid October. I do not think we will see the same explosive growth, mainly because we will never get back down to the low numbers we had back in May. But I think we will get back up to about where we were at the peak of the summer outbreak if bars open up and a lot of kids go back to school face to face.

Really the big question for the fall is how much the weather will affect transmission. Warm and humid air did not do much to stop transmission, but will dry air aid transmission that much?

This is a very rosy assessment. Florida was in great position in June, not hard-hit early. But since then it is DFL in handling the pandemic, hence the criticism. Florida deaths are far from done as well with them lagging 3-4 weeks. We can expect a couple more weeks to boost those per capita stats, even if there is no case surge.

I miss the good old days when they were scaring the beejesus out of us and stealing our rights and wealth using a fake narrative about terrorism.

Now this effin Covid scam

A friend of mine works in hospital administration in Florida. He said the numbers are way better thank 6 weeks ago. So I don’t think they’re made up.

I think one thing you are hopefully missing is once the virus rips through an area one huge possibility is it is much harder for it to take off again. The virus is going to run its course and yes we can take precautions but some of it is beyond our control. Florida has a very older population and despite that their numbers are on par with a lot of states and way way better than a lot of northeastern states that got hammered by the virus. I’m in Ct. are we doing great with covid now because of precautions we’re taking (much less precautions than when virus was killing tons of people here- we’ve got 4th highest death rate) or because it already infected the most vulnerable? Might be a weather component as well. And when you open back up might make a difference but we locked down hard here and still tons and tons of people kept dying .

I was about to say look at Louisiana. They got a big spike in March cause of marsh gras. Now are getting second spike like rest of south. However the hard hit areas the first time - New Orleans are not seeing a big spike this time. That points to possibly some sort of immunity and hope that the northeast won’t get clobbered when the weather turns this winter. I just searched twitter and saw this thread on Louisiana .

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1295716257673641984?s=21

We’ll see. I think there is no doubt that *some* of Florida‘s residents will be protected due to the widespread nature of the virus. Herd immunity? I doubt it.

The difference you’re ignoring Wejo is that Florida unlike other hard-hit areas (Northeast, most of Europe) does NOT wait for spread to be minuscule (let’s say >1500 cases, >4% real infection rate) before taking major reopening steps. So they’re really testing the idea that enough people have gotten it or they just don’t mind people who aren’t completely vulnerable getting it. We’ll see if it works out, but it is not the same as what your state did.

Why are we posting crackpot theories from “el gato malo” about the pandemic? I just don’t see the point in spreading misinformation around public health. We’re six months in and still promoting this stuff?

Joe Dirt:

You have been wrong since January, 2020 regarding corona-19 virus.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

We’ll see. I think there is no doubt that *some* of Florida‘s residents will be protected due to the widespread nature of the virus. Herd immunity? I doubt it.

The difference you’re ignoring Wejo is that Florida unlike other hard-hit areas (Northeast, most of Europe) does NOT wait for spread to be minuscule (let’s say >1500 cases, >4% real infection rate) before taking major reopening steps. So they’re really testing the idea that enough people have gotten it or they just don’t mind people who aren’t completely vulnerable getting it. We’ll see if it works out, but it is not the same as what your state did.

Agreed . Just saw Fauci on today show. And he was saying what you’re saying . The lower you get it it to the better you will be when it comes back.

My hospital friend said they do expect an uptick w school reopening and activities around that. But covid is not a huge threat to kids and I still don’t think there is evidence kids spread it to adults or at large numbers. Most people don’t seem to know this.

My personal thinking is protect the old and vulnerable , be responsible, and the rest of us can weather this. And I think hard core lockdowns don’t work that well. State death rates seem to follow a more regional pattern rather than a lockdown no lockdown pattern or degree of lockdown.

It helps that our governor didn’t send covid patients into our nursing homes to keep the death rate down. Those that are in the danger range 70+ should continue to isolate themselves and take precautions but the rest of us can get back to life.

My kids went back to school this week and started XC/dance with other children. Actually attended an XC meet last weekend, races went off in 2 waves 3 min apart. Temps taken to come in and masks required while not competing/warming up. Life is starting to feel more normal.

The moment the geniuses in charge believe its safe enough to send all kids back to school in person the virus will take off again. And just wait for flu season. Because of the precautions already in place this flu season won't be as bad as it was say last year, but the confusion of trying to distinguish between the regular flu and COVID is going to bring the health care system in Dade County particularly to it's knees. Again.

This will not vanish like some in charge say it will. There will be a resurgence. Do not let your guard down people.