UNC-Chapel Hill reverses plans for in-person classes after 130 students test positive for Covid-19

UNC median family income is $135,000 and 1.2% come from a poor family but become wealthy as adults. 60% of students are from the top 20% of U.S. income families.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/college-mobility/university-of-north-carolina-chapel-hill

A severe flu season is 61k deaths, the final total for 2017-18. We're at 173k deaths, at least, and growing about 1k per day in August, for COVID, which is being under-, not over-, reported. Over the last 100 years since the Spanish Flu, one flu season, in 1968-69, was comparable in the proportion of the population killed, at about 500 per million (the Hong Kong flu killed 1 million worldwide), and one flu season, the Asian flu of 1957-58, was worse at about 670 per million (1.1 million deaths worldwide/COVID's currently at at least 770,000 worldwide). I predict COVID to reach that point in mid to late October, which is comparable to 220,000 deaths in the U.S. now. At that time, hospital care was nowhere near as sophisticated as today. If this had hit in the 1960s, deaths would be closer to half a million by now, I am sure.

Someone asked a very simple, logical question, and you responded with a character sketch laced with crazy. How did you get lack of empathy, selfishness, and a desire to infect others from "Did any of them feel sick?"

zxczxcv wrote:

A severe flu season is 61k deaths, the final total for 2017-18. We're at 173k deaths, at least, and growing about 1k per day in August, for COVID, which is being under-, not over-, reported. Over the last 100 years since the Spanish Flu, one flu season, in 1968-69, was comparable in the proportion of the population killed, at about 500 per million (the Hong Kong flu killed 1 million worldwide), and one flu season, the Asian flu of 1957-58, was worse at about 670 per million (1.1 million deaths worldwide/COVID's currently at at least 770,000 worldwide). I predict COVID to reach that point in mid to late October, which is comparable to 220,000 deaths in the U.S. now. At that time, hospital care was nowhere near as sophisticated as today. If this had hit in the 1960s, deaths would be closer to half a million by now, I am sure.

This is a false conclusion due to several reasons.

#1 we did not have this mass testing and panic for those past flu's. Meaning Dr's had to diagnose the cause of death by clinical methods. Given about half of the US COVID deaths are nursing home patients there is a real question about how many of those deaths had they occurred during the past pandemics been chalked up to the Flu vs old age. Likely the pandemics you mentioned were being measured by today's standard applied to COVID they would have been order of magnitudes higher.

#2 Our population is much more unhealthy. If you took our fat population and pulled out the immunity to those flu's and let them run wild as novel viruses today they would do far more damage today.

We have never tested for a virus in this magnitude and for that reason, it is extremely difficult to compare to past pandemics. The fact that over 84% of COVID Deaths have comorbidity and over 80% under the age of 80 involves an underlying condition the death count is highly suspect. The death count does not differentiate between COVID being the underlying cause of death or comorbidity. The CDC's count through 8/15 is 155K, they do not count the COVID deaths Liberal governers determined by ways of time travel.

We have also never financially incentivized medical facilities to list a pandemic as cause of death. Put COVID as the cause of death for someone dying on a ventilator, here's an extra $39K for you no proof required.

So there may be an argument to be made that modern medical care has saved lives that would have been lost if this hit 50 years ago. But there are a lot of other factors that point to this being overcounted compared to past pandemics.

Actually, the definition of COVID-19 as cause of death is as "underlying cause of death," so that co-morbidities, which are there in most COVID and flu deaths, are not thought by the doctor or medical examiner to have been lethal, but only a contributing factor. You're thinking about cause of death in the wrong way. This is not mere presence. They are instructed by the CDC not to count merely dying with COVID as a COVID cause of death. It has to be what leads to death, given the background factors, so that without COVID-19, they wouldn't have died, and COVID-19 is what led to death, given that the patient was susceptible to it because of other factors, which were not in themselves sufficient to kill him or her.

CDC memo said COVID should be listed as a cause of death if patient tests positive or if patient is suspected to have COVID. We then decided to pay hospitals extra money to list COVID as cause of death. Nothing to see here!!!!!!!!

Comparing COVID to Flu deaths is worthless because Flu is listed as cause of death on somewhere between 3000 to 7000 death certificates a year in the US but we accept the number is between 36-60K annually. Its not very scientific because it is not a thing to list viruses as cause of death. Because in 90% of deaths where a virus is a contributing factor there is a serious underlying health condition and the physician lists that condition as the cause of death and does not list the virus as the cause of death. Also, ask a dr how many people with terminal cancer who were on their last legs and passed away they tested for different strains of the flu. Not very many.

"CDC memo said COVID should be listed as a cause of death if patient tests positive or if patient is suspected to have COVID. We then decided to pay hospitals extra money to list COVID as cause of death. "

I have heard from reliable family the local hospital declared a heart patient death as Covid-19 when in fact they did not have Covid-19 at all. The hospital did this, it is assumed, to get the extra money that a Covid-19 death brings in. If this is really true this is very dishonest and I may want to contact the newspaper and ask them to report on this. Then hold whoever was involved responsible.

colored me shocked almost wrote:

Shut this down until we Get Biden in office. Until then, quit being selfish and killing people's grandparents!!

Sadly, if and when Biden wins the lizard brained tribal republicans and all of their patriots will defy and undermine and sabotage anything that resembled a national or centralized initiative.

This is such a dumb argument. It's been repeated 100s of times here. Just stop.

The CDC puts in serious work to model and estimate the actual mortality of influenza. It is very scientific! The 50k+ per year deaths that you see reported for the flu are more similar to the "with COVID" metric that people love to misinterpret.

See here:

You're basically proving my point by saying "yeah the CDC estimates flu mortality using excess deaths/testing/etc and we accept that." Do you reject excess death models for COVID that corroborate 150k+ deaths? Can't have it both ways (but I'm sure you will try, or just stop responding as you do in every other thread).

You can’t prove a method by explaining it. CDC relies on a vast bureaucratic network that has proven time and again that it is fruitlessly ineffective.

united banks of America wrote:

You can’t prove a method by explaining it. CDC relies on a vast bureaucratic network that has proven time and again that it is fruitlessly ineffective.

Ok, so, what's your point.

We don't know how many people die of the flu?

Do you think it's undercounted? Over counted?

Gathering data on 300 million americans is going to be bureaucratic. I don't think anyone has called into question their flu mortality modelling. But sure, go ahead, I'm don't think it helps whatever argument you're trying to make!

A year ago, a relative of mine contacted the flu. He was hospitalized with pneumonia and had a small stroke while on life support. I believe his cause of death was listed as complications from pneumonia and flu wasn’t anywhere in there.

I suspect flu deaths undercounted.

over under wrote:

A year ago, a relative of mine contacted the flu. He was hospitalized with pneumonia and had a small stroke while on life support. I believe his cause of death was listed as complications from pneumonia and flu wasn’t anywhere in there.

I suspect flu deaths undercounted.

Isn't that because the pneumonia is what killed him? For instance, if you have epilepsy and die during a seizure, it is usually a lack of oxygen or an injury that kills you. You don't die of epilepsy.

I'm genuinely asking, not arguing.

I worked as an RN in an ICU in the late 90s through mid 2000s. I never once was asked to test a patient for the flu. Never once saw it written as "cause of death. " And unfortunately, I witnessed many deaths.

over under wrote:

A year ago, a relative of mine contacted the flu. He was hospitalized with pneumonia and had a small stroke while on life support. I believe his cause of death was listed as complications from pneumonia and flu wasn’t anywhere in there.

I suspect flu deaths undercounted.

The 50k + deaths you see per year from flu are numbers that have been corrected to account for this.

You can read about it in the link I posted above -- how the CDC attempts to do it.

It's true that flu deaths are under reported on death certs. which is why the CDC attempts to model and get a 'true' number.

My point is that you have no frame of reference. The veracity of these numbers can neither be proven nor disproven. Stats gathering is fraught with error, a min or clerical can have a considerable swing in either direction. Stats are the cornerstone of logic and logic is one step removed from assumption and assumption is the mother of fuk ups. I’ll never understand data wonks

united banks of America wrote:

My point is that you have no frame of reference. The veracity of these numbers can neither be proven nor disproven. Stats gathering is fraught with error, a min or clerical can have a considerable swing in either direction. Stats are the cornerstone of logic and logic is one step removed from assumption and assumption is the mother of fuk ups. I’ll never understand data wonks

I see. So the solution is to throw your hands up say:

"We'll never know! Estimates aren't good enough!"

What do you propose making decisions based on, gut feelings?