Monaco forecast: Too hot for 5000 WR?

MY PREDICTION :

CHEPTEGEI 5K : 12:33

GRESSIER 5K : 13:03

WANDERS 5K : 12:54

-------

JAKOB 1500M : 3:28:89

mon5000 wrote:

I'm getting it from Weather Underground. Actually looks to be 71-72f dew points in the evening.

I've run outside a couple of times in those conditions and it is miserable. Cut my mileage by half this summer as a result.

Strange the discrepancy between WU and Accu-Weather. I just put in the actual stadium (Stade Louis II, Monaco) as location in Accu-Weather and again got an evening temp of 76 with a dew point of 64.

Anyway, if it ends up being a 70+ dew point a sub 12:50 will be impressive.

Starno wrote:

MY PREDICTION :

CHEPTEGEI 5K : 12:33

GRESSIER 5K : 13:03

WANDERS 5K : 12:54

-------

JAKOB 1500M : 3:28:89

wat

A humid mass of air will enter Monaco on thursday and will remain until saturday.

All local sources say this too, there will be a 70-71F dew point at race time unfortunately.

Lawrence the Cable Guy wrote:

mon5000 wrote:

I'm getting it from Weather Underground. Actually looks to be 71-72f dew points in the evening.

I've run outside a couple of times in those conditions and it is miserable. Cut my mileage by half this summer as a result.

Strange the discrepancy between WU and Accu-Weather. I just put in the actual stadium (Stade Louis II, Monaco) as location in Accu-Weather and again got an evening temp of 76 with a dew point of 64.

Anyway, if it ends up being a 70+ dew point a sub 12:50 will be impressive.

Cable guy. 12:50 is always impressive.

Starno wrote:

MY PREDICTION :

CHEPTEGEI 5K : 12:33

GRESSIER 5K : 13:03

WANDERS 5K : 12:54

-------

JAKOB 1500M : 3:28:89

Realistic predictions:

Cheptegei: 12:45

Gressier: 13:15

Wanders: 13:15

Jakob: 3:30

malmo wrote:

Lawrence the Cable Guy wrote:

High of 83 F, low of 73F for Friday. By the evening it will probably be 75 deg F at best, much warmer than ideal for a WR. .

False premise. 75° isn't too warm. The top ten 5000m times were run at and avg of 70° that means at least half of them have been well over 70°. I see a 71, 72, and thre 80s.

I did a study of this about ten-15 years ago, calculating the average start time temperature of the 50 best performances in each event 1500-10000m. I calculated the average of top 1, 2, 3, .....50. I'll try to find the raw data but I do have the graph in front of me.

https://imgur.com/KpYl0PK

The graph was from 2005. Here is the data.

1 12:37.35 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 1 Hengelo 31.05.2004 62-58-53 (58)

2 12:39.36 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 1 Helsinki 13.06.1998 66-62-57 (65)

3 12:39.74 Daniel Komen KEN 1 Bruxelles 22.08.1997 71-68-66 (71)

4 12:40.18 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 1 Saint-Denis 01.07.2005 59-58-57

5 12:41.86 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 1 Zürich 13.08.1997 86-72-59 (72)

6 12:44.39 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 1 Zürich 16.08.1995

7 12:44.90 Daniel Komen KEN 2 Zürich 13.08.1997 86-72-59 (72)

8 12:45.09 Daniel Komen KEN 1 Zürich 14.08.1996 68-62-57 (62)

9 12:46.53 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 1 Roma 02.07.2004 86-76-66 (80)

10 12:47.04 Sileshi Sihine ETH 2 Roma 02.07.2004 86-76-66 (80)

11 12:48.81 Stephen Cherono KEN 1 Ostrava 12.06.2003 87-73-59 (80)

12 12:48.98 Daniel Komen KEN 1 Roma 05.06.1997 71-66-62 (65)

13 12:49.28 Brahim Lahlafi MAR 1 Bruxelles 25.08.2000

14 12:49.64 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 1 Zürich 11.08.1999 69-63-57 (64)

15 12:49.71 Mohammed Mourhit BEL 2 Bruxelles 25.08.2000

16 12:49.87 Paul Tergat KEN 3 Zürich 13.08.1997 86-72-59 (72)

17 12:50.22 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 1 Bruxelles 26.08.2005 64-58-51 (58)

18 12:50.24 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 2 Ostrava 12.06.2003 87-73-59 (80)

19 12:50.25 Abderrahim Goumri MAR 2 Bruxelles 26.08.2005 64-58-51 (58)

20 12:50.80 Salah Hissou MAR 1 Roma 05.06.1996

21 12:50.86 Ali Saïdi-Sief ALG 1 Roma 30.06.2000 82-73-64 (75)

22 12:51.60 Daniel Komen KEN 1 Stockholm 08.07.1996 68-58-48 (63)

23 12:52.26 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 1 Oslo 27.06.2003 77-64-51 (71)

24 12:52.29 Issac Songok KEN 1 Roma 08.07.2005 80-74-68 (75)

25 12:52.33 Sammy Kipketer KEN 2 Oslo 27.06.2003 77-64-51 (71)

26 12:52.38 Daniel Komen KEN 1 Milano 07.09.1996 57-52-46

27 12:52.39 Salah Hissou MAR 2 Roma 05.06.1997 71-66-62 (65)

28 12:52.53 Salah Hissou MAR 1 Milano 09.06.1999 80-68-57 (75)

29 12:52.61 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 3 Oslo 27.06.2003 77-64-51 (71)

30 12:52.70 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 2 Zürich 14.08.1996 68-62-57 (62)

31 12:52.76 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 2 Roma 08.07.2005 80-74-68 (75)

32 12:52.79 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 1 Saint-Denis 31.08.2003 66-57-48 (61)

33 12:52.80 Gebre-egziabher Gebremariam ETH 3 Roma 08.07.2005 80-74-68 (75)

34 12:52.83 Hicham El Guerrouj MAR 2 Saint-Denis 31.08.2003 66-57-48 (61)

35 12:52.99 Abraham Chebii KEN 4 Oslo 27.06.2003 77-64-51 (71)

36 12:53.12 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 3 Saint-Denis 31.08.2003 66-57-48 (61)

37 12:53.19 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 1 Berlin 01.09.1995

38 12:53.37 Abraham Chebii KEN 1 Saint-Denis 04.07.2003 66-62-57 (63)

39 12:53.41 Khalid Boulami MAR 4 Zürich 13.08.1997 86-72-59 (72)

40 12:53.45 Salah Hissou MAR 2 Zürich 11.08.1999 69-63-57 (64)

41 12:53.66 Augustine Choge KEN 4 Roma 08.07.2005 80-74-68 (75)

42 12:53.72 Philip Mosima KEN 2 Roma 05.06.1996

43 12:53.84 Assefa Mezgebu ETH 1 Bruxelles 28.08.1998 50-55-50 (55)

44 12:53.92 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 1 Oslo 30.06.1999 54-58-51 (60)

45 12:54.07 Sammy Kipketer KEN 2 Roma 30.06.2000 82-73-64 (75)

45 12:54.07 John Kibowen KEN 4 Saint-Denis 31.08.2003 66-57-48 (61)

47 12:54.08 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 1 Zürich 12.08.1998 93-78-62 (81)

48 12:54.15 Dejene Berhanu ETH 3 Roma 02.07.2004 86-76-66 (80)

49 12:54.36 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 2 Saint-Denis 04.07.2003 66-62-57 (63)

50 12:54.58 James Kwalia KEN 5 Oslo 27.06.2003 77-64-51 (71)

51 12:54.60 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 1 Nürnberg 13.06.1997 75-64-53 (64)

52 12:54.70 Dieter Baumann GER 5 Zürich 13.08.1997 86-72-59 (72)

53 12:54.72 Paul Tergat KEN 3 Zürich 14.08.1996 68-62-57 (62)

54 12:54.82 Daniel Komen KEN 2 Bruxelles 28.08.1998 50-55-50 (55)

55 12:54.83 Salah Hissou MAR 2 Milano 07.09.1996 57-52-46

56 12:54.85 Moses Kiptanui KEN 3 Roma 05.06.1996

57 12:54.99 Benjamin Limo KEN 3 Saint-Denis 04.07.2003 66-62-57 (63)

58 12:55.03 Sammy Kipketer KEN 1 Oslo 28.07.2000 69-58-48 (69)

Malmo, could you explain what the 4 temps are? Thanks for posting this.

I guess not surprisingly Kenny had nice cool temps for his WR. I still think for that to be broken similar conditions will likely be needed. Heat & humidity might not effect these guys as much as the running masses but it will have some effect.

I'm curious if you have temperature data for Komen's 3000m WR. That looked like a really hot day from the race video.

While certainly not a weak WR, I do wonder if the 5k WR isn't as strong as it seems on paper. The Diamond League format of circuit racing has seemed to disincentivize fast racing in favor of tactical racing. We have had years with long sub 13:00 droughts when athletes like Mo Farah were clearly capable of running significantly faster. The Paris 5k in 2012 or the Brussels 5k in 2018 are rare exceptions where high caliber athletes pushed each other, and despite of questionable pacing in both races managed to deliver very fast times. Neither of those races were record attempts, or even set up to be anything more than the usual diamond league 12:55-13:10 affair, yet guys like Barega proved that they could break into the 12:40s.

Ahmed's time trial this year was impressive, but it seems to only build on the theory that the drought in fast times over the last decade has more to do with lack of trying than a lack of ability.

If this will indeed be a WR attempt, it will be the first we've seen since Bekele was in his prime.

I believe Cheptegei can get into the lower 12:40s. But the 12:30s seem to be a stretch.

The best demonstration of his raw speed was his 55 lap kick in the 10000m in Doha, and his 12:51 5k on the road. And while both were notable, it's a far cry from the Bekele / Komen / Gebrselassie territory that he's aiming for.

And even if he is indeed in the shape to get the WR, the pacing is a factor that may very well not allow for it. A 12:37.00 is a average 2:31.4 seconds for Kilometer.

The splits for the 3 12:40 5ks in history are:

Daniel Komen (1997)- 12:39.74 (2:32.7, 2:32.7, 2:31.9, 2:31.21, 2:31.21)

Haile Gebrselassie (1998)- 12:39.36 (2:34.8, 2:31.6, 2:32.9, 2:32.8, 2:27.3)

Kenenisa Bekele (2004)- 12:37.35 (2:33.24, 2:32.23, 2:31.87, 2:30.59, 2:29.42)

Only Daniel Komen had even pacing the whole way. Gebrselassie and Bekele both had to overcome slow opening 2ks with ridiculous finishing kicks.

So Cheptegei is going to have to get even pacing of at least 5:03 through 2k. Pacing through 3k would be preferable but I doubt there's anyone up for running a 7:34 3k. If the pacing goes for that long it's more likely the WR attempt gets screwed by a slow 3k split of 7:40 or so.

Without knowing about the pacing information it's hard to make a prediction. I believe Cheptegei will be in stellar shape, but a WR attempt over a long distance hinges on more than just the physical capabilities of the athlete.

He won't get it in 70+ degree whether with some noticeable humidity. Period.

He should have good pacing through 2K, but he'd have to be lucky to get pacing to 2400 or 2800. 3K-3200 is not happening.

I'll give him 12:46 under the circumstances.

zxczxcv wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSSBtxvd5BI

Jeez! I didn't notice that K splits before...

2:33.24

2:32.23

2:31.87 (7:37.34)

2:30.59

2:29.44

Amazing

Rewatching this video, reading the split, it is a very suffocative performance.

Incredible. Can t imagine Cheptegai doing better even with better pacing. Starting too fast is a recipe for punishment at the end.

Is Cheptegai even a sub 7:30 racer? Doubt it. Even if he is more strength than speed this record ask for atleasr 7:22 -23 ability.

Hardloper wrote:

The weather is perfect. The key is the fact that its 40 minutes after sunset, not the air temperature.

The weather is not perfect. Your right in that temperature isn't everything but check out the dew point - nearly 70. I'm sorry 78 degrees with a 70 degree point is FAR from perfect.

The dew point in the last 2 WR attempts was 55 or lower, ) which was also the dewpoint when Ahmed ran his 12:47 a few weeks go.

How much will it slow him down? 10 seconds?

PS. I ran a 5000 on Saturday on the track in 79 degree weather with 71 dew pointhere in Baltimore and it felt pretty warm (admittedly the sun was out. I course I didn't start to fade until about 14 minutes in and by then Joshua will be finished but let's be honest, he's not breaking the WR in these conditions.

mon5000 wrote:

Nope. The weather looks to be atrocious. The air temperature doesn't matter as much when around 75f but they will feel the dew point of 70f. That is an oppressive condition. I would expect them to be 15+ seconds slower than they would normally be. They just won't be able to cool off efficiently during the run.

For reference, the conditions in Portland on July 10 when Ahmed ran 12:47....52f dew point!!

Good post. What did you record the temp to be for his 12:47? I'm curious. I estimated it to be 73. Here it will be 6 degrees warmer with a dew point nearly 20 degrees higher.

Lion belt wrote:

Rewatching this video, reading the split, it is a very suffocative performance.

Incredible. Can t imagine Cheptegai doing better even with better pacing. Starting too fast is a recipe for punishment at the end.

Is Cheptegai even a sub 7:30 racer? Doubt it. Even if he is more strength than speed this record ask for atleasr 7:22 -23 ability.

7:22-7:23 ability?

Nah. Only one guy has run sub-7:23. Only two guys have run sub-7:24, El G and Komen.

Bekele and Geb both ran 7:25+. Cheptegei could probably run in the range of 7:27-29. I don't think he'll get the record but he is in the ballpark.

Lion belt wrote:

Rewatching this video, reading the split, it is a very suffocative performance.

Incredible. Can t imagine Cheptegai doing better even with better pacing. Starting too fast is a recipe for punishment at the end.

Is Cheptegai even a sub 7:30 racer? Doubt it. Even if he is more strength than speed this record ask for atleasr 7:22 -23 ability.

Remember Cheptegei has the huge advantage of having the lights to pace him as well

rojo wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

The weather is perfect. The key is the fact that its 40 minutes after sunset, not the air temperature.

The weather is not perfect. Your right in that temperature isn't everything but check out the dew point - nearly 70. I'm sorry 78 degrees with a 70 degree point is FAR from perfect.

The dew point in the last 2 WR attempts was 55 or lower, ) which was also the dewpoint when Ahmed ran his 12:47 a few weeks go.

How much will it slow him down? 10 seconds?

PS. I ran a 5000 on Saturday on the track in 79 degree weather with 71 dew pointhere in Baltimore and it felt pretty warm (admittedly the sun was out. I course I didn't start to fade until about 14 minutes in and by then Joshua will be finished but let's be honest, he's not breaking the WR in these conditions.

Yes, I hate the be the one to rain on the excitement but this is too warm and humid for a world record. He could still run a 12:41, but they need at least good conditions (below 70) to start to think about 12:37

Good analysis.

While pacing can certainly help, Kenny B. only was paced through 2k. After the pacer dropped he ran faster leading the final 3k.

Also while pacing lights might help (more so if one is used to running with them) pacing lights require more mental effort to follow than required to follow an actual runner ahead of you.

More importantly, pacing lights offer zero drafting benefits like an actual running pacer provides

malmo wrote:

Lawrence the Cable Guy wrote:

High of 83 F, low of 73F for Friday. By the evening it will probably be 75 deg F at best, much warmer than ideal for a WR. .

False premise. 75° isn't too warm. The top ten 5000m times were run at and avg of 70° that means at least half of them have been well over 70°. I see a 71, 72, and thre 80s.

I did a study of this about ten-15 years ago, calculating the average start time temperature of the 50 best performances in each event 1500-10000m. I calculated the average of top 1, 2, 3, .....50. I'll try to find the raw data but I do have the graph in front of me.

https://imgur.com/KpYl0PK

You confuse average with median above.