Monaco forecast: Too hot for 5000 WR?

ttt for the knowledgeable.

im not sure on any of this, but i think ive read on here where some world records were set in 70+ weather.

maybe heat does not affect these freaks the way it does the rest of us mortals?

75 F seems like the max temp before you’d be negatively affected in a 13 minute race. Maybe 10 degrees above “perfect” though.

I still don’t think he’s indicated 5,000 WR capability, but it would be very cool if he gets it.

77-78F predicted. Hotter than ideal but still decent.

Joshua went on a 6-day training camp in Kampala to run on a proper track for the first time in months and to acclimatise with warm weather.

He ran there a 7:41 3000m TT at altitude, without tapering and 72F and high humidity. It will be very close.

Lawrence the Cable Guy wrote:

High of 83 F, low of 73F for Friday. By the evening it will probably be 75 deg F at best, much warmer than ideal for a WR. Anyone know what the weather was for the 3 sub 12:40s? I know Geb's was quite cool; not sure about Kenny's WR and Komen's 12:39. But I bet it was way cooler than Friday will be.

I am optimistic Joshua will eventually get Kenny's WRs but it will take perfect conditions. I'm thinking they'll start out at WR pace but fade the last 2000m to a 12:45 or so.

I believe a poster said it was mid to high 70s and similar winds for the bowerman 5k time trials.

Not ideal but manageable

Las Cruces and Portales, New Mexico are closest in altitude to Kampala, just under 4000 ft. The NCAA altitude conversion for them for the steeple is about 9 seconds. So, Cheptegei's time trial would have been worth about 7:32-33, very fast. Monaco weather's usually a bit warm for the 5, but perfect for the 1500m. Try for the world record at a cooler meeting, maybe in Switzerland, if this doesn't work.

Top Ten all-time:

1 12:37.35 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Hengelo 31.05.2004

2 12:39.36 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Helsinki 13.06.1998

3 12:39.74 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Bruxelles 22.08.1997

4 12:40.18 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13.06.82 1 Saint-Denis 01.07.2005

5 12:41.86 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Zürich 13.08.1997

6 12:43.02 Selemon Barega ETH 20.01.00 1 Bruxelles 31.08.2018

7 12:44.39 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Zürich 16.08.1995

8 12:44.90 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 2 Zürich 13.08.1997

9 12:45.09 Daniel Komen KEN 17.05.76 1 Zürich 14.08.1996

10 12:45.82 Hagos Gebrhiwet ETH 11.05.94 2 Bruxelles 31.08.2018

The top ten all-time were all run in cooler places, Belgium, Netherlands, and Switzerland, except for Bekele's run in Paris (St.-Denis). (It's 93 degrees today in Hengelo!) I wasn't able to find the weather in Hengelo in 2004 for the world record, but for what it's worth in May 2010 it was in the 50s and low 60s.

In the race video, at 1:17, after Jos Hermens finally scooted off the track upon finishing instructions to the pacers, the announcer said in Dutch something that sound like the temperature was good, good for world records. The people in the crowd are wearing light jackets and putting their hands together. It looks like it was cool.

His time trial was solo and converted to a 7:32. Pacemakers supposed to go thru 3k in 7:35, but I'm thinking more like 7:38-7:40 with the names listed. That's probably best considering the heat for him to run his optimal time in that weather, but not optimal to get a 12:37 which I didn't think was going to happen regardless. I'm thinking a 12:45-12:47. It gets very hot in Uganda so I think he's fairly heat acclimated, but that only does so much. Say it was 60-65 degrees, I'd call a 12:39-12:41. Having that said Ahmed ran 12:47 with a 5:00 last 2k in low 70's, so who knows? But Ahmed was also the 5k bronze medallist last year so it's not like I think Cheptegai is that much better.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

75 F seems like the max temp before you’d be negatively affected in a 13 minute race. Maybe 10 degrees above “perfect” though.

I still don’t think he’s indicated 5,000 WR capability, but it would be very cool if he gets it.

The weather is perfect. The key is the fact that its 40 minutes after sunset, not the air temperature.

The conditions are honest. It will be afer sunset so sun wont be a factor, humidity will be around 80%, the temperature will be around 25 not ideal but not like currently where it is well above 30 and this is not a marathon.

Regardless of the conditions his chance are very remore to say the least.

For sprinters, hot is great. 90 degrees is great. 400 meters probably 85. 1500 this Friday might actually be perfect at 75 degrees. 5k they'd probably want more like a 60-65 degree day. 10k upper 50's. half marathon and marathon 45 degrees.

I pulled these numbers out of my a$$ and personal experience. 75 degrees is warm if you're doing more than a mile or so.

Lion belt wrote:

The conditions are honest. It will be afer sunset so sun wont be a factor, humidity will be around 80%, the temperature will be around 25 not ideal but not like currently where it is well above 30 and this is not a marathon.

Regardless of the conditions his chance are very remore to say the least.

Wtf does “honest conditions” mean? You’ve been watching too much Flotrack.

Lawrence the Cable Guy wrote:

High of 83 F, low of 73F for Friday. By the evening it will probably be 75 deg F at best, much warmer than ideal for a WR. .

False premise. 75° isn't too warm. The top ten 5000m times were run at and avg of 70° that means at least half of them have been well over 70°. I see a 71, 72, and thre 80s.

I did a study of this about ten-15 years ago, calculating the average start time temperature of the 50 best performances in each event 1500-10000m. I calculated the average of top 1, 2, 3, .....50. I'll try to find the raw data but I do have the graph in front of me.

The temp doesn't matter, the WR is not in danger. I could see 12:45 happening.

Hardloper wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

75 F seems like the max temp before you’d be negatively affected in a 13 minute race. Maybe 10 degrees above “perfect” though.

I still don’t think he’s indicated 5,000 WR capability, but it would be very cool if he gets it.

The weather is perfect. The key is the fact that its 40 minutes after sunset, not the air temperature.

Nope. The weather looks to be atrocious. The air temperature doesn't matter as much when around 75f but they will feel the dew point of 70f. That is an oppressive condition. I would expect them to be 15+ seconds slower than they would normally be. They just won't be able to cool off efficiently during the run.

For reference, the conditions in Portland on July 10 when Ahmed ran 12:47....52f dew point!!

mon5000 wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

The weather is perfect. The key is the fact that its 40 minutes after sunset, not the air temperature.

Nope. The weather looks to be atrocious. The air temperature doesn't matter as much when around 75f but they will feel the dew point of 70f. That is an oppressive condition. I would expect them to be 15+ seconds slower than they would normally be. They just won't be able to cool off efficiently during the run.

For reference, the conditions in Portland on July 10 when Ahmed ran 12:47....52f dew point!!

Not sure where you are getting a 70 dew point. Accu-Weather shows Friday in Monaco with an evening dew point of 64; 63 in the afternoon. That's not great but way better than 70. But I do agree with you that dew point is a critical metric for running performance.

Lawrence the Cable Guy wrote:

mon5000 wrote:

Nope. The weather looks to be atrocious. The air temperature doesn't matter as much when around 75f but they will feel the dew point of 70f. That is an oppressive condition. I would expect them to be 15+ seconds slower than they would normally be. They just won't be able to cool off efficiently during the run.

For reference, the conditions in Portland on July 10 when Ahmed ran 12:47....52f dew point!!

Not sure where you are getting a 70 dew point. Accu-Weather shows Friday in Monaco with an evening dew point of 64; 63 in the afternoon. That's not great but way better than 70. But I do agree with you that dew point is a critical metric for running performance.

Are you sure you're reading that correctly. WU shows the DP won't drop below 71°. Start time is 9:13.

I'm getting it from Weather Underground. Actually looks to be 71-72f dew points in the evening.

I've run outside a couple of times in those conditions and it is miserable. Cut my mileage by half this summer as a result.

Lawrence the Cable Guy wrote:

But I do agree with you that dew point is a critical metric for running performance.

Yup DP is critical.

5.14.2010 DOHA Kipchoge 12:51 Chepkok 12:51

The race was run at night. 8:35pm. Sunset at near the Equator is 6:00pm. That means the race went off two and a half hours past sunset.

The temperature was about 94°, the DEW POINT was 54°. In other words it was ideal for running fast.