New Zealand 102 days with out Covid case records 4 new cases from unknown source will lock country down for 3 days

why so doom and gloom? wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

The crisis is now, not in the future. Nothing is "permanent" in the present. So what should be the response, looking at those countries that have failed to control the spread of the virus?

New Zealand's present lockdown - which isn't at the strictest level and is focused on Auckland - is only for 3 days. I suspect it may weather it rather well.

The only alternative to controlling the virus is not controlling it. We see where that leads.

So what does three days do? How does a three day lock down make any sense?

Could someone answer how a three day lock down is some amazing strategy to Covid 19 eradication ?

Armstronglivs wrote:

why so doom and gloom? wrote:

So what does three days do? How does a three day lock down make any sense?

To enable contact tracing from the 4 cases identified without further spread of possible infection.

Do you believe that?

Armstronglivs wrote:

The asymptomatic give it to those who get very sick and even die - 163,000 presently in the US. .

Many of those 163,000 were assumed to be infected with COVID-19. They are included in the death count without confirmation of infection.

According to the CDC, COVID-19 has an infection-fatality rate of 0.6 - for every 1,000 infections, 6 people will die, 994 will live.

Exaggeration and overreaction has ruled in the US since the first person died on Feb, 28 in the state of Washington.

No, I am not. It is you who used the description "a systematic breakdown of government". I see that you can't defend that.

The pandemic requires a response to the situation we are experiencing now. We don't yet know where it will be in a year or more. While it continues to spread in other countries New Zealand has no alternative but to keep it out. There is no "living with the virus"; it kills and destroys economies both.

It isn't just New Zealand that will face the question of what should be the response if there is no effective vaccine; all countries will be affected. But that is a situation that cannot yet be anticipated. International tourism and travel must continue to be restricted while the disease is prevalent; however other parts of the economy can continue to function - with government help. To the extent there is further opening up will depend on how well other countries contain the virus. Herd immunity is not an option - for reasons explained above.

The long-term will depend on what happens in the long-term; this is a constantly changing situation, we don't yet know what the future might be. We are in the middle of a siege; it is too early to plan how the siege will end - we are still enduring it.

DanM wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

The asymptomatic give it to those who get very sick and even die - 163,000 presently in the US. .

Many of those 163,000 were assumed to be infected with COVID-19. They are included in the death count without confirmation of infection.

According to the CDC, COVID-19 has an infection-fatality rate of 0.6 - for every 1,000 infections, 6 people will die, 994 will live.

Exaggeration and overreaction has ruled in the US since the first person died on Feb, 28 in the state of Washington.

Bollocks.

why so doom and gloom? wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

To enable contact tracing from the 4 cases identified without further spread of possible infection.

Do you believe that?

Nah - you're right; the moon-landings were faked.

runnerch wrote:

Been there, done that wrote:

He obviously hasn't been to Hanoi in the winter. Though it is very warm in Ho Chi Minh city in January. Hanoi is 700 miles north, and they do turn on the heat there in the winter.

Fair point about Hanoi. But the idea that ac/heating, or lack thereof, can account for the difference between 165,000 deaths and 16 (or 58) deaths is nonsense anyway.

The CDC recommends between 6-12 air changes per hour for control of respiratory diseases. When commercial air handlers are in heating mode, they draw in a minimal amount of outside air (typically about 20%) and the rest is recirculated air. In cooling mode, they will draw in either the 20% minimum or 100% outside air depending upon whether or not the enthalpy of the outside air is below the enthalpy of the return air (typically this happens around 78 degrees F and 55% RH, an enthalpy economizer in a dry state like Colorado will still draw in outside air that is 90 degrees and 15% humidity as it still has a lower enthalpy than the return air in this condition). This temperature also tends to dictate whether or not people are spending more time indoors versus outdoors. The recirculated air is then passed through a filter (typically these filters are 50-85% effective in removing the water droplets that epidemiologists are concerned about (whereas hospitals utilize HEPA filters that are 99.97% efficient at removing these particles). A lot of older buildings draw in little to no outside air and the systems are typically poorly maintained, so those air flows are often not attained. So we see lots of COVID in states that are in cooling mode that are not in economizer mode. Here is a list of cities by heating degree days and by cooling degree days.

Heating Degree Days:

Key West, FL - 10

Tampa, FL - 725

Phoenix, AZ - 892

Los Angeles, CA - 1,154

Houston, TX - 1,599

Auckland, NZ - 1,824

San Francisco, CA - 3,005

NYC, NY - 4,805

Denver, CO - 5,524

Boston, MA - 5,634

Aspen, CO - 7,882

Cooling Degree Days:

Key West, FL - 5,400

Phoenix, AZ - 4,936

Tampa, FL - 3,427

Houston, TX - 2,700

Los Angeles, CA - 1,537

NYC, NY - 1,096

Boston, MA - 1,036

Denver, CO - 807

Auckland, NZ - 334

Aspen, CO - 171

San Francisco, CA - 65

It corresponds quite well with when these regions experienced their outbreaks (those with high HDD experienced outbreaks in the winter, while those with high CDD experienced theirs in the summer once the economizers shut off). Tuberculosis clinics in the third world have seen similar effects when they close their operable windows during cold stretches (when the weather is warm and they are trying to cool using operable windows and ceiling fans, their transmission rate is nil. When they close the windows, their transmission rate spikes). Operable windows provide about 20 air changes per hour.

When I spoke about the gov't I didn't know you weren't from the USA -see the example I used to prove my point. Having said that, NZ looks great right now because because they only needed to lockdown for 7 weeks. However, if NZ doesn't plan for the long term, the current adulation will turn to angst, fear, and rage.

I see no problem with asking what the comprehensive strategy will be to get everyone through to 2022 and beyond. However, you seem to resist the idea that there's any alternative to lockdowns.

New Zealand has shafted themselves royally.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zj3d1oBj3Wo&t=0s

Some_Local wrote:

When I spoke about the gov't I didn't know you weren't from the USA -see the example I used to prove my point. Having said that, NZ looks great right now because because they only needed to lockdown for 7 weeks. However, if NZ doesn't plan for the long term, the current adulation will turn to angst, fear, and rage.

I see no problem with asking what the comprehensive strategy will be to get everyone through to 2022 and beyond. However, you seem to resist the idea that there's any alternative to lockdowns.

There isn't yet. Look at what has happened in Victoria, where the spread of the virus got out of control. The overwhelming requirement of community transmission is to trace, identify and isolate. New Zealand will be trying to avoid what has happened in Victoria. If it does, the lockdown will be limited and short. Presently, no other strategy has been shown to be successful in dealing with outbreaks.

The fact is that there will be no "normal" while the disease is present, and no economic fix. Absent a vaccine the only strategy available is suppression if not elimination.

YMMV wrote:

New Zealand has shafted themselves royally.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zj3d1oBj3Wo&t=0s

New Zealand hasn't shafted itself anything like the Trump administration has shafted the US. Leading the world. For deaths and the bigliest recession since the Great Depression.

It seems the virus was picked up from cargo ship docked. Things just got crazy.

This is why America's are by far the dumbest idiots on the planet when morons like you say these statements.

This is where I disagree. The long term destruction that will be caused by the all-or-nothing approach we have now will lead to far more severe consequences. You feel the current strategy is best as it controls the overall spread of the disease. However, the current strategy was put in place hoping to have each country be able to return to some level of normalcy after a matter of weeks, not a year or more.

Let's say there's never a vaccine, or at best case something similar to the flu vaccine that's only effective if you get the strain it guards against. Do you really believe the world is just going to sit by and let themselves be forced to not feed their families?

Armstronglivs wrote:

why so doom and gloom? wrote:

Do you believe that?

Nah - you're right; the moon-landings were faked.

So you actually believe that in three days of a shutdown a virus spread can be stopped?

Why throw in the moon landing bit?

DanM wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

The asymptomatic give it to those who get very sick and even die - 163,000 presently in the US. .

Many of those 163,000 were assumed to be infected with COVID-19. They are included in the death count without confirmation of infection.

According to the CDC, COVID-19 has an infection-fatality rate of 0.6 - for every 1,000 infections, 6 people will die, 994 will live.

Exaggeration and overreaction has ruled in the US since the first person died on Feb, 28 in the state of Washington.

Wrong. More than half the states do not count presumptive deaths. COVID 19 has a very distinct signature on CT scans. Presumptive cases are typically those where a CT scan shows the scarring and fluid build up that is typical of COVID 19 pneumonia. States like Texas toss out these cases because they require a confirmed test and a final coroner's report before the case is counted as a COVID 19 death.

Armstronglivs wrote:

The fact is that there will be no "normal" while the disease is present, and no economic fix. Absent a vaccine the only strategy available is suppression if not elimination.

there could be a normal tomorrow for 90% of people if governments just told the very old, very obese, and sick people to voluntarily self-isolate. then we could achieve herd immunity amongst the general population and when the vulnerable came back out of isolation, they would be less likely to catch the virus as there would be less transmission.

they would still have to deal with seasonal outbreaks, just like with the normal flu, but that's life. people die from illnesses, it helps keep population growth in check.

The New Zealand government puts lives ahead of the economy, unlike a number of other countries that have a high death toll and a struggling economy (like the UK). Economies will recover; dead people don't.

We are still in the early days of the pandemic. The most successful strategy at this stage is suppression of the virus in order to firstly save lives; second, to not overburden the health system; and, thirdly, enable a return to a more normal and less restricted existence as soon as possible. That is not an "all or nothing" approach; it is trying to achieve a combination of goals balanced against each other.

An important part of the strategy is to try to find a vaccine - that would end the pandemic - but the strategy does not mean proceeding on the basis a vaccine might never be developed. It is far too soon to make that gloomy prognostication. For now, what we have to do is deal with the virus as best we can while there is still no vaccine. That may mean increasing our ability to suppress the spread of the virus, through improved prophylaxis, and also better testing and contact tracing.

We cannot simply return to the way things were because we have had enough of the virus; it won't have had enough of us. While it is still amongst us our lives must change. If there is no vaccine - and it could take years for that pessimistic outcome to be apparent - we have to continue to find ways to suppress the spread of the disease while still functioning as an economy and society. But it will undoubtedly mean less economic growth and lower living standards for some time. There is no way around that while Covid is with us. As New Zealand's former prime minister Helen Clark has said, "we are in this for the long haul".

"So you actually believe that in three days of a shutdown a virus spread can be stopped?"

The health experts believe that time will enable them to trace the path of the infections while preventing further spread; if it takes longer, then it will take longer. I don't presume to know better than they do. And nor should you. They are experts for a reason.