The sub-1:40 because it's the only one that probably could already have been broken. I suspect that Rudisha in 2012 could have broken 1:40 if the London Olympic finals had been a time trial with pacers. So all it takes is another Rudisha-like talent and the right race conditions. After that I actually think the 10000m is most likely and the 1500m least likely because the new shoes help more in longer races.
cvcvnjk wrote:
Bring back the mile. wrote:
Did or did not Kipchoge run 26.2 miles in 1:59:40? It happened and the barrier was broken. Bannister is praised for running sub 4:00 for the first time in a non official race with pacers, why can’t Kipchoge be praised for the first athlete under 2 hours?
Bannister didn’t have a car plus laser beams plus rotating pacers and a ridiculous shoe
Yeah cause it was 1 mile lol
My Thoughts wrote:
Bad Wigins wrote:
Sub 26 is the most breakable. Everyone who has been near the current WR could realistically have gotten there if they'd went for it.
12:30 is not possible without some amazing new drugs and officials looking the other way. (There may be some, if recent performances are any indication, but they're not looking that good just yet)
3:40 will never happen. Probably not possible and nobody's trying. Everyone who gets near 3:26, which isn't close to 3:40, gets busted for doping.
But the sub -100 800 is the hardest barrier of them all. At 8 m/s, even with a draft, the drag forces are too great and sap too much power to get back around in sub 50, unless you went out in well over 50.
I've never understood this "(insert time slightly faster than current WR) is impossible" logic. How exactly do you come to that conclusion? I'm sure that in the future, new training methods will be created that are superior to our current methods, athletes will appear that are more talented than anyone we've previously seen, and athletes from countries that don't currently have a chance in running will be given better access to the sport.
If I travelled back in time to 1972 when the 800 record was 1:44, I'm sure I could find people saying "Sub 1:42 is impossible" "Sub 1:41 is impossible." And so on. Only difference is we didn't have internet to see people saying it. People of the future will look back at threads like this and laugh.
We already have that superior training method here and now! The problem is that the world of running doesn't know that yet.Will be interesting to see what's happening with one of the worlds greatest runners who trains with the method now.
It probably comes down to who gets away with doping or new shoe technology. I think that if a shoe is made that manages to cut the lap time by 0.5 seconds per lap, then the 800m record will be broken but not the mile, 5000m or 10,000m. In addition, Rudisha could run a few tenths faster with drafting. The second easiest will be 5000m, because one must be able to run 12.30, to be able to run sub 26.00, but there are more attempts at 5000m, thus greater chance of it being beaten. Mile is most difficult, because history shows that no one is around and it has been a long time since it has shown signs of progress. The 800m record is relatively new with 1.40.91 from 2012, while the shoe technology is still improving at road races with, for example, 26.24 at 10k. With a clash of titans in the 10k road race between Kejelcha, Kipruto, Barega and Kjeptegei, 26.15 should be realistic, preferably with Hagos Gebrehiwet as pacemaker.
World records, 800m and shorter are the toughest to break going forward. We have greater global participation. Specifically 400m to 800m have improved the least. There are few nations who produce sub-10 100m athletes. There are few nations who produce sub-2:10 Marathoners. Many nations produce sub-47.5 400m athletes & sub-1:47.5 800m athletes. This means many nations have given it their best efforts at 400/800. Jamaica tries to produce 400/800 athletes. Ethiopia tries to produce 800/1500 athletes. Greater global participation is not going to change much, 400/800. A poster brought up 800m WR, 1972. Kenya was only 11 or so years past Mau Mau in 1972. Kenyans had more important concerns in 1972 than racing sub-1:44. We have far more sub-1:44 gents and some more 1:43 gents today, but to race sub-1:40 800m, we need a F.A.T. 45.5 400m man who can race sub-45.5 400m while training for 800m on relatively low mileage. Sub-1:40 800 will not be produced by a 47.5+ F.A.T. 400m guy who does Lydiard training. Let's see if anymore men break 1:41 800m before we speculate on who will or will not break 1:40 800m.
I’d say Cheptegei has a better shot at the 10k than the 5k, the dude has engine but idk if he has the wheels to go sub 12:30 for a 5k. Then again there’s Rhonex Kipruto who could also take a good crack at the 10K.
Lazyrunner37 wrote:
It probably comes down to who gets away with doping or new shoe technology. I think that if a shoe is made that manages to cut the lap time by 0.5 seconds per lap, then the 800m record will be broken but not the mile, 5000m or 10,000m. In addition, Rudisha could run a few tenths faster with drafting. The second easiest will be 5000m, because one must be able to run 12.30, to be able to run sub 26.00, but there are more attempts at 5000m, thus greater chance of it being beaten. Mile is most difficult, because history shows that no one is around and it has been a long time since it has shown signs of progress. The 800m record is relatively new with 1.40.91 from 2012, while the shoe technology is still improving at road races with, for example, 26.24 at 10k. With a clash of titans in the 10k road race between Kejelcha, Kipruto, Barega and Kjeptegei, 26.15 should be realistic, preferably with Hagos Gebrehiwet as pacemaker.
100 percent agree here, if any of these times ever get ran it will have to be aided by drugs and technology.
Another interesting way to think about it would be to divide each record by two:
800: 1:40/2 = 50
1 Mile: 3:40/2 = 1:50
10k: 26:00/2 = 13:00
This may be an oddball perspective but by just looking at the en route times the 800 looks by far the easiest out of the 3. World champions run 13 minutes in the 5k yet your average high school 400 runner could run 50 seconds. To me the answer is simple, the 800 is the weakest.
The mile and 800 are hardest because they are so anaerobic. It's a lot harder to increase lactic acid buffering than it is to improve aerobic endurance.
Sub-7:20 3000? wrote:
Bring back the mile. wrote:
Now that the 2 hours marathon barrier has been broken what other magical barriers can we expect to be broken in the future? Out of the following which is most likely?
800m 1:39
Mile 3:39
5000 12:29
10000 25:59
Definitely the 800. It will take a super fast 400 guy to move up or maybe a really good 400h guy who is just super strong.
The mile (3:40 is just ridiculously fast when the WR was probably *aided*) seems improbable. I would say the 5000 is next most likely and then the 10,000 because the 10,000 is rarely ever run. Actually, the 26:00 barrier is the least likely to be broken. It wasn’t that long ago that an untouchable, likely doped Aouita could barely break 13:00 for one 5,000.
I do wish they would run more miles and less 1500s. 3 3/4 laps just seems arbitrary, despite being the international distance. It’s like running a 700 instead of an 800. Silly.
Actually, I’m going to backtrack a little and agree with many posters here that the 10,000 record would be the easiest to get. Surely if someone exists who can run 12:35 for 5000, they can also go sub-26:00. The problem is there just aren’t many opportunities. Also, it’s hard for me to believe that any of the sub-12:45s are non-doped as it is.
The 800 is not an easy record by any stretch of the imagination, but, I could see a really fast, strong 400 hurdler moving up to train for it if they were so inclined.
The mile seems out of reach per the sub-3:40 target put forth here. When is the last time anyway got close to 3:45 even? And it’s been a marquee event at many meets over many decades. Are El Guerrouj’s or Morceli’s or Ngeny’s marks really legitimately believable?
Off your reckoning 3:30 has already been broken never mind 3:40
Craig Wheeler 3:24
"humanity" has NOT gotten pretty close at all
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Ranked by likelihood:
800
5,000
10,000
Mile
I think a more reasonable mile/1500 mark would’ve been 3:25.
+1
the man able to run sub 3.40 mile was not born yet
4sec off the GOAT of middle distance running???
UNPOPULAR OPINION: RABBITS/PACING IS OVERRATED!
Look at Komen’s 3000 WR, done with insane POSITIVE SPLITS!
I think Webb could have broken the WR in the mile but his rabbits were in the way. 3:46-1 second per lap= 3:42 WR!
Rupp was less than 2 seconds a lap away from BREAKING 26:00 in the 10k!
I think the next time any WR is broken whoever does will be able to do it WITHOUT RABBITS. And maybe they should do attempt without rabbits.
Brazier is the likely candidate. Moh, Mo, and Jacob, Rupp, Kipchoge, and yes Bekele could challenge sub 12:30, 26:00!
These margins are so small. Watch Billy Mills snap his fingers. 1 second is NOTHING. CHANGE YOUR THINKING AND IT HAPPENS!
you don't need a laser car on a track, or rotating pacers when they can all survive 3.75 laps, unlike the highest level pros that just couldn't cope with kipchoge. marathon sub2 is in a whole different universe than sub4 mile and that guy still needed pacers for his sub4. lol
btw 10km just got dropped to within 7s of 10000m so if they have the right shoes I'd bet they do the job better in 10000 than 800-5000, plus 12:37 is higher level than 26:17 imo
None of them are going to be broken unless there is a significant change in technology.
Historically distance events were moving fast and getting bettered very often. This has completely ceased except for the marathon because of massive effect of shoes on preserving the muscles.
The other tracks record have been stale. Maybe the 800m barrier can be beaten with a new spike shoes. You can forget about the others.
Lazyrunner37 wrote:
The second easiest will be 5000m, because one must be able to run 12.30, to be able to run sub 26.00, but there are more attempts at 5000m, thus greater chance of it being beaten.
12:40 would be enough to run a sub 26 min 10k. But as you point out you run into the the issue that it isn't run very often. And with the longer races conditions matter more. You have fewer attempts and the odds of each attempt being in good conditions also drops.
You also run into issues where finding rabbits get hard. Finding a guy to take you through 400m in 49.5 is pretty easy. Finding a guy to take you through 5000m in 13:00 is pretty hard.
Realistically I expect it to take 30 years unless we get some big track/shoe breakthrough. Other than the 90s EPO breakthroughs, the progression in WR has really slowed down. Coe's WR was set almost 30 years ago and like 3 guys have run faster.
people underestimate the 800. Brazier has shown nothing to show he can come close to the record. By the time Rudisha was Brazier's age, he had already run 1. 41 a number of times. None of the current athletes are coming close to 1.40 any time soon.
jimmy94 wrote:
people underestimate the 800. Brazier has shown nothing to show he can come close to the record. By the time Rudisha was Brazier's age, he had already run 1. 41 a number of times. None of the current athletes are coming close to 1.40 any time soon.
One second seems a lot less than 3s or 7s or 17s....
Brazier has another couple years where you could expect him to run PRs and the like but 2.4s is a lot. But the 800m proves how quickly a guys show up (and a lot fade). Maybe John Lester keeps improving and runs a 1:45 next year, 1:43 the one after and then is running 1:41 as a 20 year old. Or of course he stalls out. Nobody figure out which of the 17 year olds running 1:48 will keep improving.
Personally I expect it to take 20 years to break 1:40.
People with no legs can run. One guy ran 47 seconds for a 400 with no legs.
Therefore with the CheaterFlys any record is available.