Most likely barrier to be broken? 1:40 800m 3:40 mile 12:30 5k 26:00 10k

1) The two hour barrier for the marathon has NOT been broken.

2) To answer your question: sub 1:40 800

Ranked by likelihood:

800

5,000

10,000

Mile

I think a more reasonable mile/1500 mark would’ve been 3:25.

close in 52 wrote:

1) The two hour barrier for the marathon has NOT been broken.

2) To answer your question: sub 1:40 800

Did or did not Kipchoge run 26.2 miles in 1:59:40? It happened and the barrier was broken. Bannister is praised for running sub 4:00 for the first time in a non official race with pacers, why can’t Kipchoge be praised for the first athlete under 2 hours?

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Ranked by likelihood:

800

5,000

10,000

Mile

I think a more reasonable mile/1500 mark would’ve been 3:25.

Why do you think the mile would be the least likely out of the 4? The 1500m world record converts to a 3:42 Mile so humanity has already gotten pretty close.

Sub 4:10 Mile wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Ranked by likelihood:

800

5,000

10,000

Mile

I think a more reasonable mile/1500 mark would’ve been 3:25.

Why do you think the mile would be the least likely out of the 4? The 1500m world record converts to a 3:42 Mile so humanity has already gotten pretty close.

3-4 seconds off a mega-doped record is tough going.

The 800. Not because the record is weak, rather because more will attempt it and more athletes with different strengths will have a chance.

To run sub 26, you probably need to be a 110 pound dude of E. African descent.

The number of humans with a 0.01% chance of running 1:40 is just bigger (imo) then the number of humans with a 0.01% chance of running 26. And fast 800s are run all the time. 10Ks at that pace are run almost never. An 800 stud can take multiple cracks at records in one season. 10K guys blow it all in one race. MAYBE two.

Bring back the mile. wrote:

close in 52 wrote:

1) The two hour barrier for the marathon has NOT been broken.

2) To answer your question: sub 1:40 800

Did or did not Kipchoge run 26.2 miles in 1:59:40? It happened and the barrier was broken. Bannister is praised for running sub 4:00 for the first time in a non official race with pacers, why can’t Kipchoge be praised for the first athlete under 2 hours?

Bannister didn’t have a car plus laser beams plus rotating pacers and a ridiculous shoe

Bring back the mile. wrote:

Now that the 2 hours marathon barrier has been broken what other magical barriers can we expect to be broken in the future? Out of the following which is most likely?

800m 1:39

Mile 3:39

5000 12:29

10000 25:59

800 sub 1:40 (2 laps sub 50 pace)

5000 sub 12:30 (12.5 laps sub 60 pace)

10000 sub 26 (25 laps sub 62 pace)

Mile sub 3:40 (4 laps sub 55 pace)

Bring back the mile. wrote:

close in 52 wrote:

1) The two hour barrier for the marathon has NOT been broken.

2) To answer your question: sub 1:40 800

Did or did not Kipchoge run 26.2 miles in 1:59:40? It happened and the barrier was broken. Bannister is praised for running sub 4:00 for the first time in a non official race with pacers, why can’t Kipchoge be praised for the first athlete under 2 hours?

Cheaterflys. Did he run 26.2 miles in less than 2 hours? Sure, just like some guy ran a mile in 3.28 or whatever (downhill). Thats not the "2 hour barrier" that people want to see though

Bring back the mile. wrote:

Now that the 2 hours marathon barrier has been broken what other magical barriers can we expect to be broken in the future? Out of the following which is most likely?

800m 1:39

Mile 3:39

5000 12:29

10000 25:59

Definitely the 800. It will take a super fast 400 guy to move up or maybe a really good 400h guy who is just super strong.

The mile (3:40 is just ridiculously fast when the WR was probably *aided*) seems improbable. I would say the 5000 is next most likely and then the 10,000 because the 10,000 is rarely ever run. Actually, the 26:00 barrier is the least likely to be broken. It wasn’t that long ago that an untouchable, likely doped Aouita could barely break 13:00 for one 5,000.

I do wish they would run more miles and less 1500s. 3 3/4 laps just seems arbitrary, despite being the international distance. It’s like running a 700 instead of an 800. Silly.

The only one I can think of have a chance to break one of that barriers is Donavan Brazier at 800m .If he wont I think It will take some more years before a superior runner will have a chance to run that fast.

In order of most to least likely:

800

5000

10000

Mile

800 seems most likely to me. Given the current WR was ran solo, it's fair to assume it would be closer to ~1:40.5 if it had pacers for 500-600, and it's far easier to find someone who can pace that than someone going thru 4k in 10:00.

I actually think sub 26 10 000m is easier than sub 12:30 5000m, given Rhonex Kipruto ran 26:24 on the roads without VFs and solo from 3k, he is likely closer to 26:05-26:10 in spikes on the track with more pacers.

The problem is there's so few track 10 000's run nowadays and its even tougher to find pacers that good. I think if sub 26 10k is broken there will be one of the guys racing who pushes the pace after the pacers have dropped out, kind of like how Kejelcha lead that 2018 Brussels 5000m till 4800 and "paced" Barega to a 12:43.

The mile won't happen for a very long time, even if we're counting 1500 conversions no one's even come close.

I think the mile is closest to being beaten. It's only like 3.4 seconds away, which is less than a second per lap.

The 5k is next because there are some super fast guys right now. Mo Ahmed just ran sub 12:50, there's that one guy that ran super fast on the roads, Lomong just broke 13, and there's probably several Americans that can break 13 in the next couple seasons. Fisher, Hunter, maybe Jager (but he's getting kinda old), Woody Kincaid broke 13 last year, Jakob Ingebrigsten is super young and super fast, and there's some Africans that have run really fast in the past couple years too.

10k next, because there's not a ton of races, but that guy did run a 24:24 or something on the roads last year, so he should be really fast in a good track race.

800 last because there's no one even close to 1:40. Amos is super inconsisten, and Brazier still hasn't broken 1:42.

Surely the 10k, because eventually some drug more powerful than EPO will appear and be untestable for a while?

Aside from doping developments, perhaps the 800m as two guys were already running close to 1:41.5 30 years ago and it looks like the standard of 800m running outside of East Africa is finally improving again.

Of course if Jakob keeps progressing until his early to mid twenties, then all bets are off.

And the shoes....

And the tracks. I read that the Monaco track has been made even faster this year, and that's why runners are stating they are going for WRs. Is this true?

Well, according to Canova both the 5k and 10k WR are rather weak, at least compared with what Bekele could have done in his opinion. So considering that even Rhonex "zero basic speed" Kipruto did 26:24 with a huge negative split, sub26 might indeed be closer than we think, there maybe "only" needs to be the right race (and might it be on the roads with the additional advantage of Vaporflys/Adios Pros)

The other records are also less than one second per lap away, so that makes no sense at all. Also you should really learn some names other than those of American runners and Jakob I, "the guy that ran super fast on the road" is 10k world champion Joshua Cheptegei and the guy who "did run a 24:24 or something" is Rhonex Kipruto.

Sub 26 is the most breakable. Everyone who has been near the current WR could realistically have gotten there if they'd went for it.

12:30 is not possible without some amazing new drugs and officials looking the other way. (There may be some, if recent performances are any indication, but they're not looking that good just yet)

3:40 will never happen. Probably not possible and nobody's trying. Everyone who gets near 3:26, which isn't close to 3:40, gets busted for doping.

But the sub -100 800 is the hardest barrier of them all. At 8 m/s, even with a draft, the drag forces are too great and sap too much power to get back around in sub 50, unless you went out in well over 50.

10000 and 5000 are the most likely IMO. There's a bunch of good runners who have a decent chance and can push each other in super fast races. Barega, Kejelcha, Cheptegei, Kipruto, etc.

In the 1500/mile there's nobody really to challenge the record. The same in 800, the standard has been low since Rudisha was gone, only Amos getting even close to 1:41. In the 1500 Cheruyiot has been at least consistently good unlike Amos. If it is mile or 800 I can't see who might be the one to do it.

1st - 5k. Cheptegei is capable of this and I think he'll do it later this year.

2nd - 800m. Brazier is definitely capable, but I'm less certain he'll do it. Though the current record is less than a second away, so it doesn't seem impossible.

3rd - 10k. Probably the easiest of these to achieve, but will be attempted much less frequently. Once again, Cheptegei is capable, though he may choose to focus on the 5k.

4th - Mile. When will Americans realise this is an outdated distance, just like measuring the distance in yards? Just run the 1500, it's the modern version. Very few non-Americans will even hear of a mile race taking place. But go to any track meet and there'll be a 1500 guaranteed.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Sub 26 is the most breakable. Everyone who has been near the current WR could realistically have gotten there if they'd went for it.

12:30 is not possible without some amazing new drugs and officials looking the other way. (There may be some, if recent performances are any indication, but they're not looking that good just yet)

3:40 will never happen. Probably not possible and nobody's trying. Everyone who gets near 3:26, which isn't close to 3:40, gets busted for doping.

But the sub -100 800 is the hardest barrier of them all. At 8 m/s, even with a draft, the drag forces are too great and sap too much power to get back around in sub 50, unless you went out in well over 50.

I've never understood this "(insert time slightly faster than current WR) is impossible" logic. How exactly do you come to that conclusion? I'm sure that in the future, new training methods will be created that are superior to our current methods, athletes will appear that are more talented than anyone we've previously seen, and athletes from countries that don't currently have a chance in running will be given better access to the sport.

If I travelled back in time to 1972 when the 800 record was 1:44, I'm sure I could find people saying "Sub 1:42 is impossible" "Sub 1:41 is impossible." And so on. Only difference is we didn't have internet to see people saying it. People of the future will look back at threads like this and laugh.