Is Evan Jager’s 8:00.45 (inc. fall) Worth 3:45.8 mile/12:47 5k?

Wow. If he could run 3:45 (WITH a fall) he could be the best miler in history. :-)

Les wrote:

You didn't include the 1500m equivalent which is 3:29.24. Jager's 8:00.45 is the 15th on the all-time steeple list, while the 1500 equivalent is between 17th and 18th, so pretty close. Jager's mark should have an asterisk beside it because he was listed as "likely doping" on the leaked USADA report.

Anyone alleged to be doping but without iron-clad proof still gets an asterisk?

Here we go again. wrote:

Wow. If he could run 3:45 (WITH a fall) he could be the best miler in history. :-)

Equivalent doesnt mean he could run that fast.

Jager also ran 8 flat with a fall after running rounds at USA in very high temperatures the previous weekend. It may illustrate how much better he is when he is race sharp, something Jerry almost always prevents him from being. It should be noted, though, that he's run close to 8 a few times. He ran 8:01 in both 2017 and 2018, while he has run 8:04 three times.

For comparison:

In 1995, Moses Kiptanui ran the steeplechase in 7:59 and the 5000 in 12:55.

Both were world records at the time.

Don’t know how 8:00 now equates to 12:47.

(He also set the 3000 WR at 7:27 that year, so that matches the tables)

Now, Gebrselassie dropped that 12:55 down to 12:44 in one race the same year.

That put the tables out of whack.

Not all world records, or world bests are equal.

Creating a points scale is just fun. It is a living document.

I think this really poses the question who do you think was faster respectively Alan Webb or jager not more accomplished but at that there best in the event faster?

I don’t think it poses that question.

I’d say Jager’s time is worth 3:32 - 7:33 - 13:00

I think 8 flat steeple is about a 13 flat.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I would say those tables overrate the Steeple times quite a bit.

I'd say an 8-minute steeple is akin to a 3:31 1500/3:48 mile or so and a 7:32 type 3,000. It might be harder to attain because the pacemaking is often poor, and the opportunities are fewer than the 1500/3000.

Jager was in phenomenal shape when he ran his 8:00 with a fall. If teammate Ryan Hill ran 7:30.93, I don't think it shocks anyone that Jager was in 7:29 type form when he ran that time.

I agree, but the tables provide an analysis that is consistent with the real life average.

In other words, we all know that a 3:30 1500 is equivalent to a 3:47 mile. However in real life, these days, when the mile is run far less than the 1500, a 3:50 is good enough to win nearly all mile races in the calendar.

Therefore a 3:50 mile scores higher on the tables than you'd expect when compared to the 1500.

Same is true for the steeple of course. An 8:00 is likely a 3:30 type 1500 performance. But the opportunities to run a really fast steeple are much less frequent, and so sub 8:00 performances are very rare which skews the tables.

That said, Jager's 8:00.45 steeple with a fall was clearly equivalent to a 7:57 without the fall and the lost momentum. Maybe even faster.

I don t think we should do comparisons with an event that involves jumping.

I agree, a 8:00 is roughly a 3:31 flat. They just occur much less frequently as the other poster said above. A 7:57 would be a 3:29 high I think, which makes sense if we treat the 7:53ish WR as equal to a 3:28 flat performance. Nowhere near the 15 record, but strong nevertheless, especially considering Shaheen (Cherono) was running sub 12:50 and beating El G. The scarcity of good steeplechases and properly paced races definitely impacts the number of truly strong and consistent performances. With more data points, we’d get a better idea of what an 8:00 really means relative to the 15 or 5.

Another question to think about: how good would Jager be as a pure 5000m guy? I’m willing to bet he could have gone 12:55 like a few other American greats. He ran 13:02 in 2013 when he was like 24

You have to understand that when these athletes run these great performances, their window in that shape is usually limited and what are the odds Jager would have gotten in a really fast mile or 5k right around that time and was feeling as good as he was in Paris. Let alone he did any training at all specific to these events. This was the 2015 season. He ran this time as his only race between USA"s and World's so obviously he's extremely fit. I'm mildly surprised Jerry even let him race. I think Jager could have run 3:46 and 12:50. Now a days probably more of the 12:50. He's got a lot of talent, he just needs a long string of healthy training.