57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

slripe110001 wrote:

Obvi wrote:

You seem to be having trouble expressing yourself. You have never told me why you think this is happening.

Can't wait for your "insights". ;-)

https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL33222.html

History shows a very high level of cooperation between these two countries, it’s almost as if the US created Israel.

It’s very unlikely anyone will find this interesting because likely none will read it, but let’s say you do read it, if you think this is interesting just take a look at how each country manipulated international courts efforts to pass legislation which would prevent genocide. Let’s just put it this way, as long as you phrase things properly you can continue to destroy American Indians and Palestinians, they are expendable anachronisms, and the progress of mankind depends on their extermination

Geez, now many names do you hide behind, K5?

Come on back as K5. Or use "Giles Corey" if you wish. No need to hide. We're all friends here.

18 deaths reported today.

Memorial Day was 6 weeks ago.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Some thought on the current outbreak in southern states including Georhia and Florida, among others.

These states were not heavily affected in the beginning, so the problem didn’t seem real to the extent it did elsewhere. As a result, a higher than average proportion of the population thinks it’s a hoax, just the flu bro, otherwise not serious, a Democrat conspiracy, or some other thing than a public health crisis, and choose to act as though everything is normal.

The result is skyrocketing cases, mainly among younger people. The higher case count is also partly a result of more widespread testing, so reported cases are closer to actual cases.

Meanwhile, fatalities continue to decrease in most states, although with increases in 17 states, mainly from very low levels except in a few states including Mississippi, Arizona, South Carolina, Florida, Alabama and Virginia with moderate or higher daily fatalities > 2 per million population per day.

On the whole, cases are increasing everywhere but fatalities are mainly decreasing. I suspect they will continue to decrease, other than in a handful of states. I think the reason fatalities have not followed the skyrocketing cases is because treatment outcomes are improving, because the increase in new cases is mainly among younger less vulnerable demographics, and because even in places ignoring physical distancing and masks, people have woken up to the importance of protecting vulnerable, mainly elderly people.

My expectation is that cases will continue to rise across the US for several weeks before peaking, fatialities will continue to decrease slowly but stay higher than in other developed countries for much longer. It will be a long summer in the US. I don’t personally expect a big second wave, but I do think the world will be battling flare ups for many months while we hope for a vaccine to emerge. Some places will manage better than others. I suspect the US will not fare as well as most developed nations, but will hopefully do better than places like Iran, which has clearly give up any pretence of effort to fight the pandemic.

Iran is a good example of how deaths lag behind increasing positives. Iran's initial push to control the virus resulted in cases declining and bottoming out at the beginning of May. Positives began increasing early in May through to a peak about June 6. Deaths were declining through out May, but started to increase the beginning of June. Daily death rates have just about tripled through the end of June.

Data scientists have the lag for deaths at about 27 days. That means that you can have rapidly increasing positives while still seeing deaths decrease because the deaths are from people who tested positive 27 days ago. That means that today's deaths are from people testing positive about the second week of June. That was just the very beginning of the current surge in cases. So, we may very well be at an inflection point when it comes to mortality.

We will not see the same situation that played out in NYC, Detroit, New Orleans, etc. Hospitals are prepared and have stockpiled vents and supplies. There are contingency plans in place to expand ICU capacity. There is now a lot more experience and therapies available than back in March and April. And we are doing a much better job protecting nursing homes.

But there are limits. The Texas Medical Center is currently in its phase 2 surge capacity for ICU and we are still just at the beginning of seeing the surge hit the hospitals. The further along you go into surge capacity, the more you are having to bring in doctors and nurse who have never treated COVID 19 patients and the more you are wearing down the ICU staff that have been doing this for weeks. Quality of care will erode eventually. And with no major push to shutdown in the states that are see a surge, this current state of affairs may continue for months. So, in the end, the southern states may actually end up much worse off as they let the fires burn and burn while the northern states contain and get their outbreaks under control.

Keisha Lance Bottoms tested positive.

GA Gal wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

That's interesting too. I have a few questions if you don't mind.

Do you know what kind of test it was? (Abbot ID or other rapid test?)

Why did you decide to get tested?

Are you ever near others in enclosed spaces?

Do you still only go out one time a month? If so, why?

If you are still in self quarantine what statistic/mandate/data point etc. will bring you out?

If you are not still in self quarantine what made you decide to get out?

Still haven’t answered my questions. Hmmm. Are you hiding something? Embarrassed? What gives?

GAGal wrote:

Keisha Lance Bottoms tested positive.

Now it's a spike!

Precious Roy wrote:Data scientists have the lag for deaths at about 27 days. That means that you can have rapidly increasing positives while still seeing deaths decrease because the deaths are from people who tested positive 27 days ago.

Can you site a source for that claim? My own work following the data throughout the pandemic suggests that the lag between reported cases and fatalities is closer to 10 to 12 days, although highly variable.

GA Gal wrote:

GA Gal wrote:

Do you still only go out one time a month? If so, why?

If you are still in self quarantine what statistic/mandate/data point etc. will bring you out?

If you are not still in self quarantine what made you decide to get out?

Still haven’t answered my questions. Hmmm. Are you hiding something? Embarrassed? What gives?

I'll be glad to answer your questions and I've always answered your questions. But you have refused to answer mine. Until you reciprocate, I'm done playing.

interested reader wrote:

Precious Roy wrote:Data scientists have the lag for deaths at about 27 days. That means that you can have rapidly increasing positives while still seeing deaths decrease because the deaths are from people who tested positive 27 days ago.

Can you site a source for that claim? My own work following the data throughout the pandemic suggests that the lag between reported cases and fatalities is closer to 10 to 12 days, although highly variable.

Very few people die only 10 to 12 days after testing positive. I think Precious Roy is closer to the real number.

Fat hurts wrote:

GA Gal wrote:

Still haven’t answered my questions. Hmmm. Are you hiding something? Embarrassed? What gives?

I'll be glad to answer your questions and I've always answered your questions. But you have refused to answer mine. Until you reciprocate, I'm done playing.

Nope. You’ve never been able to answer my questions. Are you hiding something? Embarrassed? What gives?

Fat hurts wrote:

interested reader wrote:

Can you site a source for that claim? My own work following the data throughout the pandemic suggests that the lag between reported cases and fatalities is closer to 10 to 12 days, although highly variable.

Very few people die only 10 to 12 days after testing positive. I think Precious Roy is closer to the real number.

deaths are in fact rising...on 7/6 CA and FL had all time highs in 7 day average of daily deaths.

FL's 7 day average is +18% from a week ago

CA's 7 day average is +14% over a week ago.

Note those are not just one day flukes...that is 7 day rolling average. And it's probably worse than that because reporting was probably artificially low because of the holiday weekend.

The way this disease works is in long trend slopes...those places are likely going to keep rising for many weeks.

GA Gal wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

I'll be glad to answer your questions and I've always answered your questions. But you have refused to answer mine. Until you reciprocate, I'm done playing.

Nope. You’ve never been able to answer my questions. Are you hiding something? Embarrassed? What gives?

I have always answered your questions. You have answered none of mine. Go pound sand.

Nice summary, I generally agree.

except death counts are in fact rising very quickly in two of our most populous states...hard to believe that won't spread.

Obvi wrote:

slripe110001 wrote:

[quote]Obvi wrote:

[quote]Giles Corey wrote:

[quote]Obvi wrote:

[quote]Giles Corey wrote:

Go away traitor

Geez, now many names do you hide behind, K5?

Come on back as K5. Or use "Giles Corey" if you wish. No need to hide. We're all friends here.

Not my post. I am not the only one who knows what's up.

I never hide. Unlike you and your refusal to answer a simple question

Last three days total deaths Georgia due to Covid

1, 3, and 18.

Is this the spike?

What two populous states are the daily deaths rising in?

4/25 (re-opening):

ER Beds in Use: 891

Critical Care Beds in Use: 2,163

General Inpatient Beds in Use: 8,878 (no elective surgeries)

6/7

COVID hospitalizations: 1500

ER: 1,210

CC: 2,007

GI: 10,338

7/6

COVID hospitalizations: 1962

ER: 1,711

CC: 2,211

GI: 11,110

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Texas, quite a lot,

And California, a tiny bit esp yesterday. (67 vs 64)

I dont think the CA one is significant at the moment, but that is the answer to your question.

(worldometers, 7 day moving average)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/