FLN and NXN predictions: YOUR TOP 3 - time to put up watchoutxcrankings

qwe wrote:

505 wrote:

But considering that he ran like a 8:53 for 2 miles in the spring, you'd think he'd be winning almost all of his races.

And he has won the important ones. Anyway, who cares how you run at the start of the season. The championship season is the part that really counts. And to say that he should be winning almost all of his races with an 8:53 is true, and he has done that, so I don't get your point. But also, he is competing against many other top high school guys in the state of NY, who also have the chops to run insanely fast. You think even if he had a bad race he still should have beat Bryce Millar at states? Millar is also insanely fast. He was just 5 seconds behind Ostberg at Manhatten, and is one of those top guys in the nation, even if he doesn't get that credit.

505 wrote:

steeplechase97 wrote:

I don't really know who's running what right now but top boys in either are: Fisher, Dressel, Maton, Anderson, and Hunter

Since I know Fisher and Maton will run FL, if Dressel runs I think he'll take the lead looking for revenge from last year and Fisher and Maton will stay back. Fisher can definately out kick both which would win and it will be close between Maton and Dressel. With Maton coming off a high from breaking Rupp's record he may be able to edge Dressel.

I do think Anderson has NXN though. As usual the championships will be close tactical races.

For girls, O'keefe, Efraimeson (if she's eligible- Idk), and the defending FL champ (I can't remember her name right now) are in the running. NXN could be a toss up though in Efraimeson isn't in and the same winner from last year is my top for FL.

Efraimson isn't eligible the defending girls FL champ is now at Penn State. However the 2012 girls FL champ, Anna Rohrer, is returning.

EvanJ wrote:

You guys are all being ridiculous. I remember this two years ago when Cheserek was about to defend. I don't understand why so many people are discounting Grant Fisher.

His accolades:

Footlocker Champ--15:06, a solid time in a relatively tactical race

New Balance Indoor Mile Champ--4:09ish in a very tactical race

Dream Mile Champ--4:02.02 with each lap faster than the one before it

Brooks PR Champ--8:51 with a 26 last 200

Faster by 20+ seconds on the course this year

He hasn't lost a high school individual race since his state track 1600 Sophomore year and even then, he lost by literally less than one hundredth of a second. He finds a way to win races, and enjoys being the underdog. Somehow, someway, you guys are labeling him the underdog in this race, and that suits him very nicely.

Dressel is maybe 15 seconds faster than last year, and his Footlocker race, in my opinion, was his absolute best day. He doesn't have a great kick. He's not going to beat Fisher.

Ostberg finished 10 slots behind Fisher last year, and while much improved, he hasn't shown the finishing speed necessary to get away from Fisher. If Ostberg tries to make a long push for home, the entire group of top boys can hunt him down. It's too risky; he'll go home if he tries to go big.

Hunter is running about what McGorty ran as a Senior, maybe a bit faster. Incredibly, that's not even that good this year. McGorty ran 15:06 at Footlocker as a senior. Hunter might touch sub-15, but remember, Fisher is 20+ seconds better than last year. He has it in him to run low 14:40s, and if the pace isn't that fast, his kick is still better than Hunter's, even though Hunter's kick is quite good.

Maton is not running much better than last year. Maybe 10 seconds faster. He's a stud, with his 4:03 mile and nice kick, but he'll find it hard to break 15, and runners like Dressel have proven to be able to break him with surges.

Mantz has just started to run again--if you're reading this, STOP! Take more time off! Don't reinjure yourself!--and isn't going to be factor. Much of what I wrote about Ostberg applies to Mantz.

Anderson could have given Fisher an incredible battle. I still think Fisher would find a way to win, but I can't argue this one well.

Feel free to argue with me. Footlocker should be an incredible race. Obviously Anderson's gonna win NXN.

EvanJ wrote:

You guys are all being ridiculous. I remember this two years ago when Cheserek was about to defend. I don't understand why so many people are discounting Grant Fisher.

His accolades:

Footlocker Champ--15:06, a solid time in a relatively tactical race

New Balance Indoor Mile Champ--4:09ish in a very tactical race

Dream Mile Champ--4:02.02 with each lap faster than the one before it

Brooks PR Champ--8:51 with a 26 last 200

Faster by 20+ seconds on the course this year

He hasn't lost a high school individual race since his state track 1600 Sophomore year and even then, he lost by literally less than one hundredth of a second. He finds a way to win races, and enjoys being the underdog. Somehow, someway, you guys are labeling him the underdog in this race, and that suits him very nicely.

Dressel is maybe 15 seconds faster than last year, and his Footlocker race, in my opinion, was his absolute best day. He doesn't have a great kick. He's not going to beat Fisher.

Ostberg finished 10 slots behind Fisher last year, and while much improved, he hasn't shown the finishing speed necessary to get away from Fisher. If Ostberg tries to make a long push for home, the entire group of top boys can hunt him down. It's too risky; he'll go home if he tries to go big.

Hunter is running about what McGorty ran as a Senior, maybe a bit faster. Incredibly, that's not even that good this year. McGorty ran 15:06 at Footlocker as a senior. Hunter might touch sub-15, but remember, Fisher is 20+ seconds better than last year. He has it in him to run low 14:40s, and if the pace isn't that fast, his kick is still better than Hunter's, even though Hunter's kick is quite good.

Maton is not running much better than last year. Maybe 10 seconds faster. He's a stud, with his 4:03 mile and nice kick, but he'll find it hard to break 15, and runners like Dressel have proven to be able to break him with surges.

Mantz has just started to run again--if you're reading this, STOP! Take more time off! Don't reinjure yourself!--and isn't going to be factor. Much of what I wrote about Ostberg applies to Mantz.

Anderson could have given Fisher an incredible battle. I still think Fisher would find a way to win, but I can't argue this one well.

Feel free to argue with me. Footlocker should be an incredible race. Obviously Anderson's gonna win NXN.

portland or bust wrote:

NXN Guys:

1. Anderson

2. Tamagno

3. Reiser

Rocha, Webb, Hacker, Millar will be close behind for that 3rd spot. Should be a showdown between Anderson and Tamagno. If Tamagno wins he's got a case for the overall National Championship, especially if FL is close or an upset.

NXN Girls:

1. O'Keefe

2. Burda

3. Jenks

Rainsberger, Donaghu, Belf will be close behind but this one is really wide open.

NXN Guys Teams:

1. F-M NY

2. La Salle RI

3. Brea Olinda CA

Utah has gotten a lot of hype but the lack of any racing except for regionals for them should be a factor. Brea will finally get challenged this year for the first time since Woodbridge and will rise to the occasion.

NXN Girls:

1. F-M NY

2. Great Oak CA

3. Saugus CA

FM and Great Oak are way above everyone else in the field. Third could just as easily be A. Fork UT, Saratoga NY, or Unionville PN.

FL Guys:

1. Maton

2. Fisher

3. Hunter

4. Ostberg

I think Hunter will rise to the occasion on the national stage and give Fisher and Maton a run for their money. I think Dressel will try something but will get passed at the end a la washington state meet.

FL Girls:

1. Rohrer

2. Schwartz

3. DeBalsi

Rohrer should win but there are a ton of girls who looked like they could of gone harder at their regional but were content with just making it.