Official 2017 NYC Marathon Discussion Thread

Aside from Meb, what other Master's runners might go under 2:30?

Shadrack "can" pr by just over 2 minutes, he's quite capable and in great shape. Him running 4:57-58 per mile has a much higher chance of happening than a----- "Zero percent chance"

That was interesting to hear Martinez say she is done with the 800. In her words "there is a lot of drama there that is outside of my control". Translation - she is tired of racing against dudes.

Rojo, don't forget to posts the wheelchair preview!

Shalane is an amazing talent and has run some outstanding races over the years, but I wish she would talk less about how fit she thinks she is, or how great her build up was and just run. Every time she has done this and talked about wanting to win (whether it be Boston, NY, or the Olympics), she has never been able to pull it out. The extra pressure of the heightened expectations she is putting on herself can't help. It's great to be confident but you don't need to get up and beat your chest in front of everyone. Shalane, please do less talking and just run!

Shut up and run! wrote:

Shalane is an amazing talent and has run some outstanding races over the years, but I wish she would talk less about how fit she thinks she is, or how great her build up was and just run. Every time she has done this and talked about wanting to win (whether it be Boston, NY, or the Olympics), she has never been able to pull it out. The extra pressure of the heightened expectations she is putting on herself can't help. It's great to be confident but you don't need to get up and beat your chest in front of everyone. Shalane, please do less talking and just run!

What do you want her to say? It's a press conference where she has to answer questions, the first of which are what kind of shape do you think you're in and how has training been going. Say what you want about that Boston 2014 race where she was 7th but she made that race. She goes for it from the gun and has run great over a long career.

Oh Please wrote:

Jared Ward better be first American. Two of the other three contenders are 40+ years old, and the other hasn't shown any particular skill at the marathon. To PR in the Olympics in warm humid weather is studly. I think he can PR again at NYC.

Ward: 2:10:45

Biwott: 2:11:30

Meb: 2:16:20

Abdi: DNF

Kipsang wins in 2:06:45 with huge negative split.

Ward because of his age and not blowing it out at Boston. He is not over trained and if it warms up he is good in the heat. He is tactical and observant and will not try to compete with the African elites if they try and go sub 2:08.

Meb has a busy month emotionally and is pulled into a 100 different directions this week.

"That's a great question. Thanks for asking!"

Ritz will be a last second entry and be first American through 18 miles then his right knee will crumple and his leg fall off. Mark my whirreds.

How about, my build up was great, perhaps one of my best. I hope to run my best, and make a podium spot or perhaps win if everything goes well. Answer the questions but taper it down. That keeps a lot of the pressure off. By saying it was my best build up ever, it would be logical to believe she is in better shape than when she ran her 2:21 in Berlin. So if she doesn't win or runs slower than 2:23-24 in NY, it will be another disappointment, at least from a media perspective. There are ways to be confident and answer questions without always saying I am in awesome shape and I am going for the win. At least she caveated it by saying if Keitany is in 2:17 shape, it won't be a contest for the win. She has run courageously in the past. Unfortunately outside of an American field, it never resulted in a marathon win. She has guts, but doesn't always have the best race plan.

Mkenya Daima wrote:

dude what wrote:

That CR will stand for a LONG time. Mutai was absolutely in WR shape when he ran that. If he had run Berlin instead of NYC in 2011, he would have destroyed Patrick Makau.

Mutai was in then-WR. Not Current WR

Unfortunately, Geoffrey Mutai is on the leaked April 6, 2016 Atypical ABP results with follow-up testing list.

There is a comment that his last 2 ABP blood tests had results with a high reticulocyte % (of RBCs) which can indicate the use of an Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agent (ESA) such as Erythropoietin, which can increase the % of reticulocytes on an ABP test.

There is also a comment about ...if Mr. Mutai has been... "tested for ESA?"

Mr. Mutai is right below Matthew Kisorio on the list.

Mr. Kisorio has returned from his DOPING BAN for the use of the anabolic steroid nandrolone.

Mr. Kisorio was managed by Federico Rosa.

Mary Keitany (2:17:01 marathon PR) and Jessica Augusto are also on the list.

It is just a coincidence.

Looks to be warmish for Sunday, which might favor Ward. He was sick two weeks ago, and his Rock n Roll 1/2 wasn't anything special, although it was warm at that race. Has Biwott even raced recently? He's not been at altitude and has switched to Hansons ... hmmm. Ward's Boston performance might indicate a downward trend. Going with Biwott. I hope I'm wrong, but nothing indicates fast times for this group. 2:11 mid to high for Biwott would be decent, but wouldn't be surprised if he finishes slower.

Speedy McSpeed wrote:

Rojo, don't forget to posts the wheelchair preview!

My bad. The wheelchair race will be won by someone who wins all of the wheelchair races. It also will come down to a sprint finish.

Wait, does that only happen at the flat marathons where they draft off of eachother? I know in Boston some of them don't stay together.

Lots of great inside info from Friday's press event with the international pros.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/11/lelisa-desisa-guarantees-victory-lemi-berhanu-wants-run-206-207-wilson-kipsang-explains-berlin-dnf-nyc/

Dr.Martial.Saugy.PlanB.com wrote:

Mkenya Daima wrote:

Mutai was in then-WR. Not Current WR

Unfortunately, Geoffrey Mutai is on the leaked April 6, 2016 Atypical ABP results with follow-up testing list.

There is a comment that his last 2 ABP blood tests had results with a high reticulocyte % (of RBCs) which can indicate the use of an Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agent (ESA) such as Erythropoietin, which can increase the % of reticulocytes on an ABP test.

There is also a comment about ...if Mr. Mutai has been... "tested for ESA?"

Mr. Mutai is right below Matthew Kisorio on the list.

Mr. Kisorio has returned from his DOPING BAN for the use of the anabolic steroid nandrolone.

Mr. Kisorio was managed by Federico Rosa.

Mary Keitany (2:17:01 marathon PR) and Jessica Augusto are also on the list.

https://imgur.com/a/vnyIC#XNFo4IL

It is just a coincidence.

Good spotting, with all the "tested for ESA?" comments we didn't get an in house suspicious rating for Mutai. ?

Biwott is in 2:10 shape. He said in the video that Asic did not renew his contract at the end of the year. Hansons picked him up in April???, I believe. He ran Boston unsponsored. I think he's going to surprise a lot of LR readers in less than 2 days.

My prediction is

1-Kipsang 2:06:11

2-Kamworor 2:07:11

3-Ghebreselassie 2:07:48

Americans:

1-Biwott 2:10:28

2-Ward 2:11:29

3-Abdi 2:11:57

Women:

1-Keitany 2:20:45

2-Kiplagat 2:22:34

3-Flanagan 2:22:52

You really think so? If I recall correctly from recent years, the race has gotten out pretty slow, with several Americans in the front group through at least 10k. I would guess if there’s any adverse weather it will get out fairly slow this year as well. My picks for Americans:

1) Ward

2) Biwott

3) Abdi

4)Meb