After Meb's performance at NYC today, do you think he is more likely to make the US Olympic team? Or less likely?

Meb makes it sound like he ran NYC for the pay day with his focus on the upcoming trials and Olympics. If he's the best American marathoner currently without even trying, then odds are he's a lock for the team.

Ryan Hall will take the first spot. He will also adopt Wilson Kipsang and Dennis Kimetto, who will take the 2nd and 3rd spots respectively. God works in mysterious ways.

Realistically, he is, at this point, neither more nor less likely to make the US Olympic team. He was already very likely to make the team, barring injury, and he still is, barring injury. He had a great run in NYC, basically about what could've been expected from him in comparison with the leaders. He was in contention at mile 20, which means he'll be in contention at mile 20 in the US Trials. It would be shocking to see more than two guys drop him in the trials. Without major fitness jumps, no more than two guys will do so.

Meb will make the team, just like he does every year. He may win, but 2-3 for sure.

At the Olympics, he will be the top American, again, even though he will not get any recognition for being a Marathon Medalist (just like 2012). He will probably finish 5-7, but lack the speed for final 400/800m kick to win or top 3.

Meb is tougher than you can imagine, and he is a world class competitor. Most people forget these facts.

Old D2 Guy wrote:

Per Letsrun: "After running 70-80 miles per week for most of the summer, Kibet realized he needed to beef up his mileage and put together a marathon-centric training plan. It was only at the start of September — less than six weeks before the race — that Kibet really began training as a marathoner, [...] and getting up to 110 to 120 miles per week."

This was far cry from the mileage he should be able to put in prior to the Trials... I'm really looking forward to the trials this year because there are so many guys with a legitimate shot at making the team. Here's my too early to tell prediction:

Kibet

Ritzenhein

Chelanga

Meb

Estrada

Eggleston

Cabada

Abdi

Puskedra

Pennel

Leon

Arcinaga

Hall

How about Bobby Curtis? Anyone know what he has been up to lately?

The trials are Feb 13th. Are three months long enough to recover? NYC is not an easy course, plus Meb is 40. I'd say less likely but still a decent chance.

BTW, what ever happened to the theory that you don't want to run more than two hard marathons in a year?

Now that is the post of the year.

The UCLA trolls are back again, promoting Meb.

It's a race, not an election. You can pump his chances all you like, but a 40 year old with 2:13 form who trains on an eliptigo ain't making the team. There are young, hungry guys putting it on on the line. They will take risks, in training and in the race, that Meb can't match due to his age. Now, Meb has to recover from this race and continue to train hard. Meb is more likely not to start the race than make the team. However, I predict a gallant top 12 finish.

It was a bad decision to run NY for a guy his age.

Collin wrote:

Realistically, he is, at this point, neither more nor less likely to make the US Olympic team. He was already very likely to make the team, barring injury, and he still is, barring injury. He had a great run in NYC, basically about what could've been expected from him in comparison with the leaders. He was in contention at mile 20, which means he'll be in contention at mile 20 in the US Trials. It would be shocking to see more than two guys drop him in the trials. Without major fitness jumps, no more than two guys will do so.

Agreed mostly with this. The race didn't change my opinion of his chances.

If a 7th place NY Marathon in 2:13 makes you a hot favorite to make the US Olympic team, we have a piss poor team. 2:13 is much closer to the women's world record than the men's world record! Surely, we have better.

PissPoor wrote:

If a 7th place NY Marathon in 2:13 makes you a hot favorite to make the US Olympic team, we have a piss poor team. 2:13 is much closer to the women's world record than the men's world record! Surely, we have better.

This. Meb was more than 4 minutes off of his best time on the NYCM course. Conditions yesterday were great for a fast time. Meb did not run fast, not did he trade punches in a tactical affair. He ran slow (for a professional) for 20 miles before being dropped. Stanley Biwott is great, but he's not some world beater.

Meb was beaten by six guys who won't make their respective national team, including the unsponsored Japanese guy who races a marathon every month or so.

I can't imagine Meb's competition being too impressed with that performance, especially the newly anointed US citizens from Africa.

I believe everyone is good wrote:

PissPoor wrote:

If a 7th place NY Marathon in 2:13 makes you a hot favorite to make the US Olympic team, we have a piss poor team. 2:13 is much closer to the women's world record than the men's world record! Surely, we have better.

This. Meb was more than 4 minutes off of his best time on the NYCM course. Conditions yesterday were great for a fast time. Meb did not run fast, not did he trade punches in a tactical affair. He ran slow (for a professional) for 20 miles before being dropped. Stanley Biwott is great, but he's not some world beater.

What is a "hot" favorite? He's clearly the favorite but the marathon is a cruel race and anything can happen on race day. He also ran NYC in 2011 "only" in 2:11 off of a 63 first half and came back just 68 days later to win the trials. A 2:13 off of a 66:49 first half (ie, he had a negative split) is well within the fitness level needed by him to win the trials and not much worse than in 2011.

How can you say that a guy who split 28:35 for the last 10K who dropped Kamworor, Desisa and Kipsang (the last two, who, by the way ran "awful" 2:12s) isn't a world beater??? Do you have any idea of the credentials of that trio? The fact that Meb stayed within a minute of Desisa and Kipsang (yeah, that Kipsang who is a 2:03 marathoner and former WR holder) should tell anyone with half a brain that Meb is in great shape. The stupidity on these boards never ceases to amaze me.

Spin it anyway you like but he was 7th in 2.13. The men's world record is 10 minutes faster and the women's world record is 2 minutes slower. Do the math. He was beaten by an amateur runner and those with no hope of making their olympic team. He's 40 and several minutes from his peak. The 30 year old Meb would beat the 40 year old Meb by at least a mile. That race is just another plot line in the inevitable down turn due to age.

Why does Pennel not seem to get any love? The guy has speed, a 1:01 (high) half and a 2:13 (mid) debut. He races well all the time.

Course records Men: 2:05:06 (2011), Geoffrey MutaiWomen: 2:22:31 (2003), Margaret Okayo

PissPoor wrote:

If a 7th place NY Marathon in 2:13 makes you a hot favorite to make the US Olympic team, we have a piss poor team. 2:13 is much closer to the women's world record than the men's world record! Surely, we have better.

PissPoor wrote:

If a 7th place NY Marathon in 2:13 makes you a hot favorite to make the US Olympic team, we have a piss poor team. 2:13 is much closer to the women's world record than the men's world record! Surely, we have better.

I think his chances are among the top 3 best chances to make the team. Who all would you put ahead of him?

Old Man Runner wrote:

I think Ryan Hall is the wildcard in all of this. No one knows what you are going to get with him.

Here is a great writeup by NBC Sports for the men and women about the chances of the US runners to make the team, after the NYC Marathon:

http://olympics.nbcsports.com/2015/11/02/meb-keflezighi-shalane-flanagan-ryan-hall-marathon-olympic-trials-favorites/

We know exactly what we're going to get from Hall. A shitty race, a DNF, or a DNS. He had an amazing career, but it's over.