Check out the Monaco 200m (men) - - MOST INTERESTING sprint lineup of 2014 !

ventolin^3 wrote:

chuckie d wrote:How can you assume that he was in 19.6x shape when his PR is nowhere close to 19.6? In fact, his legal PR is 20.00. He does have a 19.85 time that was stricken from the books I believe.

This is all conjecture.

you clearly haven't a clue about him

he ran 19.86 in college when focused on studies

in '05 he won 200 gold in miserable weather in 20-flat, destroying a quality field of really, tyson, capel & bolt

in warm, dry weather, rested & not 7th or 8th race, he wouda been looking at 19.6

You don't know that. You're pulling this out of nowhere and you're essentially saying that you're right because you say you're right.

It's also worth nothing that Gatlin has not historically seemed to be the type of athlete that's heavily impacted by adverse weather conditions. I'd also point you to Moscow last year (9.85 in the rain, only 0.07 behind Bolt - yet, no one is arguing that he was in 9.7x mid-to-low shape, because he wasn't). That's the best, most recent example.

Similarly, no one with a brain is going to argue that Gatlin definitely would have run a 19.6x in 2005 in more ideal conditions. Could he have? Well, possibly. But, he didn't, and he's never been close. I don't see how we can conceivably put 19.6x in his range at this point.

ventolin^3 wrote:

he ran 19.86 in college when focused on studies

I am sure he skipped a lot of practices to keep up with homework and reading.

Yes, there is nothing like citing your own conclusion as support for ... your own conclusion.

Moron. Idiot.

HOWEVER, Gatlin may very well be in 19.6 shape. 19.6 territory is SE territory.

Here's the list of 19.6 performers:

Bolt

Blake

Johnson

Dix

Gay

Carter

Spearmon

Fredericks

Lewis (because he could easily have done it in his 9.75)

Mike Marsh (wind-unlucky 19.73)

Of this list, 3 had insane 100m time (Bolt, Blake, Gay), 3 had excellent 100m time (Dix, Fredericks, Lewis), 4 had only very good 100m time (Johnson, Carter, Spearmon, Marsh).

So it's clearly possible to be a 19.6 guy without insane 100m time (although Gatlin just might be in that category this year), if you have shown great SE.

Does Gatlin show it? He wins races from the front this year. IMO his SE at the end of his 100's is no better than that of any of the other top competitors like Rodgers, however he shows it after a much faster first 60m. Would he have better SE than those guys if he backed off his first 60 to only as good as them? Yes, I think he would. His long stride staves off fatigue and tightening-up. That, combined with the better leg recovery he is showing this year, show that he can cycle well with only a slight diminution in stride length; and good cycling is a prerequisite of good SE.

His excellent-to-insane 100m shape this year, combined with his demonstrated form that I think is conducive to good SE, makes it distinctly possible for him to be 19.6 right now, given good conditions.

Plus, it's now-or-never. He's in the shape of his life, he is healthy, he is race-sharp, he's time-zone adjusted, and he's in a quality field. If he gets a good lane draw I could see a 19.65-19.68 depending on how he executes his race model.

Actually, these guys need to beware of Lemaitre.

He just ran a 10.14 with a 1.4 wind. With that horrible start and acceleration of his, that means he has some serious top-end speed and SE. Who could forget when he ran down Gatlin in a 100m last year?

Although he hasn't shown it yet this year, I think he will go 19.9 in Monaco, depending on lane draw. His conditioning looks to be horrible, he is gassed after ever race...but he has that stride. If he can just keep breathing and relax, he will surprise some people.

I don't think so. In the Rome DL 2014, he couldn't even run down Edward--who is in great shape this year, though.

He was reeling him in, but couldn't make up any more ground in the last 30m.

Having said that, if he is actually better than Edward in the second half, and if his first half has improved, he might post a good result.

Like somebody else said already, lane draw will be critical. This is going to be one MOTHER of a race!

F*ck!

Edward and Weir out, Ryan Bailey and Sean McLean in.

Bailey no 2014 results but improving, McLean SB 20.41, filler, will be great race experience for him.

FOR SURE Weir was ducking, the only one who asks for that kind of humiliation is Yohan Blake.

But Edward, what is up with that? He had that monster 19.82, then put up a crap 100m time. Injured? Niggles? Too bad.

BUT we still have a good race, only not great like it would have been. Gatlin, Gay, Ashmeade, Dwyer, Lemaitre, and Mitchell will make a good field. Bailey might surprise, his first 30m suck, but he really gets motoring after that.

Getting closer to the race, I will assume this is the final field. My guessed order is

Ashmeade

Gatlin

Gay

Lemaitre

Dwyer

Mitchell

Bailey

McLean

Ashmeade FTW

Ashmeade & Gatlin 19.8x

Gay 19.9x

Lemaitre & Dwyer 20.0x

Mitchell 20.1x

Bailey & McLean 20.3x

A-humenah-humenah-humenah-humenah...can't wait for this one

Prediction: Gay will tear a ham.

If he's off the juice and pushing hard, he will get injured in his 200m nemesis.

Gatlin

Ashmeade

Dwyer

Lemaitre

Mitchell

Bailey

McLean

Gay DNF

Gatlin ftw 19.73, top 5 all under 20!

"Gay will tear a ham"

I think there is a 50% chance of this happening, if not in this race, then sometime later in the season. Look what has happened to Blake, SAFP, Jeter, etc. when they go off the juice--INJURY.

The 200m is a likely race for it to happen in, more likely than in a 100m.

I would like to see Gatlin win this one, in 19.7x or faster, just to add fuel to the doping issue.

Say, this is a pretty good field. Too bad they couldn't replace the 2 who bailed with Powell and Bolt.

Well, Bolt anyway, Powell looks very ordinary. How about Bolt and Lashawn Merritt or Kirani James.

Or better yet, just Merritt and James, forget about Bolt.

Or best yet, add a lane and have Merrit, James, AND Bolt.

It almost sounds like you guys are wishing for Gay to get injured. But to your dismay, he will get through this race healthy and improve as the season progresses. As to whether or not he'll factor in this race is where the 50% chance really lies. 19.85-20.00 is what he will probably do.

With line up changes not quite the super studded field but still an exciting sprint to watch. Going with Gay to win it out of lane 3 with Gatlin fading down the homestretch after blowing things out too early coming out of lane 7 with Ashmeade outside of him pushing and Ashmeade will take 3rd.

Curtis Mitchell SHOULD get 4th in this field but is also the prime candidate to overextend himself and get into technical issues and cramp himself up so I am going to say that happens and he places 7th. Dwyer probably 4th. LeMaitre will have trouble beating Bailey who hasn't run many 200's since he world ranked in 2010 but I will give the tall Frenchmen the nod over the tall American although no shock if Bailey takes even 4th as he typically closes well.

you are clueless about sprinting

he slaughtered 19.89pb wally & 19.91pb tyson with 4 extra 100s in his legs !

he was in 19.6 shape in '05 & also '03 when 200 was his main event

utter rubbish

does justin look like a white nordic ???

he runs superb in adversity because he is a great champ

completely clueless

anyone with 1 iota of knowledge of sprinting knew justin was in 19.6 shape in '05

"Yes, there is nothing like citing your own conclusion as support for ... your own conclusion."

Well said.

Lane assignments are up:

1 - McLean

2 - Bailey

3 - Gay

4 - Dwyer

5 - Mitchell

6 - Lemaitre

7 - Gatlin

8 - Ashmeade

Wow, talk about an interesting lane draw.

Watch out for Bailey, the tight bend might not affect him too much because his start and accel relatively suck compared to the rest of his race. I have no idea how well he runs a turn.

Ashmeade on the outside, nobody to read off! IDK, maybe they got him and Dwyer reversed.

Lemaitre has a good lane--not too tight a bend, and can read off Gatlin, sort of--no doubt Gatlin will be way ahead of him in the first 100m, but at least it's something. Plus Lemaitre seems to run well from the outer lanes.

Gatlin, interesting, gets to read off Ashmeade, who will be going for the win. Should come off the turn ahead, because Ashmeade is looking to have good SE this year, as always. IMO Gatlin will need at least a 2m lead coming off the turn to win it over Ashmeade, who should do everything he can not to panic when Gatlin passes him on the turn.

Dwyer and Mitchell have the possible misfortune of reading off Lemaitre, who will probably suck in the first 70m of the race. They have to not get too satisfied with themselves when they pass him or come up on him, especially Mitchell, they have to keep driving and not think they are going that fast just because they passed Lemaitre.

Gay, VERY interesting. He has had those physical issues, now he draws lane 3. He has very quick turnover, which may enable him to run an excellent lane 3 turn--excellent. Or at least he USED TO have very quick turnover. The very last part of the arc of the turn will be where Gay shines--the inner lanes rocket you onto the straight, whereas the last part of the arc of the turn in the outer lanes means you still have to travel 20m before you hit that straight. It will be a sudden transition for Gay, and he will have to make sure to not over-react at that point and then tighten up later.

I think that Gay's and Dwyer's races will be decided in the transition area, Mitchell's, Lemaitre's, Gatlin's, and Bailey's will be decided on the turn, and Ashmeade's will be decided on the straight.

I might have to miss this race due to other obligations, but can't wait to hear the post-mortem.

Agreed on Gay, he will rocket onto that straight like nobody else in the race, if he is truly back.

If not, he will tie up at 130m, and will stand a fair chance of cramping up after 180, or even after the end of the race. Post-race jogging or something to work out the lactate will be a MUST for Gay.

This is a cool race, so many battles going on--Gay vs himself in an inside lane, Gatlin vs Ashmeade in the outer lanes, and Dwyer, Mitchell, and Lemaitre with their own battle up the middle, sandwiched between 2 other dramas. Awesome! I discount lane 1 because he's too slow, and lane 2 because I think Bailey is too big to run a good tight turn, I think it will take a lot out of him.

Fvckin' A, I called it perfectly.

19.68 (-0.5)

I wish he'd had a tailwind, this guy just can't get a break in his season of seasons. That would have been 19.5x with some tailwind, FOR SURE.

Good thing he had an outside lane, he just about ran out of it.

Ashmeade very credible but not outstanding for 2nd, Lemaitre 3rd in an ever-improving 20.08, probably good for 20-flat in windless conditions.

Gay 20.22, meh.

Curtis Mitchell 20.28, that was actually OK

Dwyer, really disappointing 20.48, makes you think they are inflating times in Jamaica now, too. Or maybe he just isn't used to traveling, hopefully he will get back to his low-20 form.

Lemaitre, impressive. Keeps improving on the year, 20.08 into a headwind means he is right around 20.00, meaning it is reasonable to expect a sub-20 from him at some point, given good conditions.

Dopers aside, you have Ashmeade at 19.99, followed by Lemaitre 20.08, then Mitchell 20.28

GATLIN, what can you say? See how he reacted? He was like "FVCKIN AWESOME", probably thinking to himself "this shit is GREAT"

VERY impressive, into a headwind at sea level with no great competition. Nobody will touch that time this year, he is the absolutely undisputed 2014 200m king and one of the very best-ever. He would have the AR if he'd had a bit of a tailwind. Heck, if he had a couple of 200m races under his belt this year, I'm going to say that he would be 19.4-high, which is totally incredible off a 9.8-basic 100m. I wonder what the splits are for this race.

Yes, he's doped.

Ashmeade, Lemaitre, Mitchell--very nice work.

Gatlin? Unbelievable.

Into a headwind!

International Enquirer, you called it dude. Interesting.

Gatlin destroys, Gay languishes, Bailey can't manage, Lemaitre improves, Ashmeade consistent.

The biggest surprise of the race for me was not Gatlin, but how badly Gay faded. Whichever poster upthread said that the transition would be key for Gay was right on, I think he gunned it at that point, and then clearly tied up, didn't have what it took at all. Not relaxed, not cycling. Not good. I thought he was consistently training hard?

Looks like roid effects really don't last long in these guys, unless Gay is naturally a 20.5+ guy like Blake.

Will we see Gay go backward next year, I wonder?

I think it's important to remember that this is a 19.68...okay, say 19.65 with no wind.

NOT 19.32, 19.26, or 19.19

Gatlin is in with Carter, Fredericks, and Spearmon...NOT Johnson, Blake, and Bolt.

Carter, Fredericks, and Spearmon--WALLACE Spearmon. This is a time that could be done cleanly by the best 200m sprinters, and is not cause for alarm.

I would have been alarmed had he gone below 19.5

THIS IS A MILLION MILES FROM 19.19, 19.26, OR 19.32

Not saying Gatlin's not using, only if he is, he's not using what they were using, because this is in a different ballpark, not in the 200m stratosphere.