Haile G bold prediction: ""Kebede is the one to beat, no question."

baby boy wrote:

NativeSon wrote:

1. Geoffrey Mutai - 2:03.15

2. William Kipsang- 2:03.29

3. Tsegaye Kebede - 2:04.30

WILSON Kipsang, not that guy William Kipsang Chebor who won the Jakarta marathon last year.

Oops!

I meant Wilson, the world record holder.

Renato Canova wrote:

8) If the race can follow this development, I think Mo can't have any chance for going on the podium. His realistic goal is to destroy the National record. And, of course, running 10000m in the next WCh 2015 and OG 2016 can remain his priority, because of sure he doesn't look at the Marathon when there are titles to win.

I disagree with this. Mo can continue to try to dominate TRACK and will be named among the great track runners (Viren, Bekele, Gebreselassie) or he can put it all on the line and go for the Marathon win in Rio 2016 and become the GREATEST OF ALL TIMES. The latter would be risky of course...

Mutai wins handily tomorrow

Renato, what is your opinion of Stephen Kiprotich's chances?

I clearly see him as a much faster runner than his 2:07 PR suggests, he just never tried. Certainly 2:04 capabilities.

Do you have any insight about his shape? I believe he ran a 1:04 Half and didn't even win...should I not bet money on him?

if i had to go with a risk/reward bet it would be on E Mutai

Mutai and Kipsang will go 1-2 and beat that ethiopian dwarf by 2 minutes, Then afterwards they'll both do a workout consisting of 10x mile, each in sub 4 while Farah is being rushed to the hospital.

longjack wrote:

Ibrahim Jeilan is in the field.

Is this guy the most misguided in all of track and field?

The guy knocks off a peak Farah with a 52x second last lap, the most animalistic finish i can recall seeing and he's now moving up to the marathon????

I'd be trying to get his 800 down to 145 or less and then see what I could do in the middle distances rather than going into the ultra competitive marathon distance.

Are you $erious

Great point, baby boy. A very important distinction and correction.

1. Geoffrey Mutai - 2:03.15

2. William Kipsang- 2:03.29

3. Tsegaye Kebede - 2:04.30[/quote] WILSON Kipsang, not that guy William Kipsang Chebor who won the Jakarta marathon last year.[/quote]

Oops!

I meant Wilson, the world record holder.[/quote]

I'm predicting a WR by Mo tomorrow. Sub 2:03:20 FTW.

jeilan ftw

Avocado's Number wrote:

I still have a hard time imagining a guy that small and with that running form winning against the best distance runners in the world, but he's shown that he can do it.....

Why on earth would a little guy being so great at distance running surprise you? Bekele and Geb are both extremely tiny guys. They're pretty good, eh? And there's been countless other very small male and female champions. C'mon, you can do better. (and we know running is not an aesthetics contest. His form is fine)

nonsense

they are the class in the field

they can win it if it's 2"03 or 2"05

do you even remember geoffrey utterly crushing new york course record in 2"05-flat ???

the runt has had something like 14 goes at M & still only a 2"04'38pb & majority of those in big city Ms where big bonuses on offer for course records

he's done nothing ever in his long history to show 2"03 ability

go dig up how many Ms it took the mutais/mosop/kipsang/makau/kimmetto to run 2"03s ???

you clearly know less than you think & it didn't seem you knew much anyways

wouda luved it

"runt, you dropped back by 48s at 35k

you think you are a worthy champ or won by default ?"

ventolin^3 wrote:

wouda luved it

"runt, you dropped back by 48s at 35k

you think you are a worthy champ or won by default ?"

So, Ventolin, exactly which mile marker do you suggest they stop the race and assign placings? Most folks go with 26.22.

Avocado's Number wrote:Kebede beat Kipsang by a comfortable margin in winning this race last year

in a crazy race where kebede was one who used his brains & backed off 48s off lead at 35k once he realised the uneven 1st 1/2 had been too tough

I don't consider it an insult to pick the defending champion as the favorite instead of picking the guy who finished fifth

err...

what part of 2"03'23wr did you miss from the 5th placer in his next M ???

only a fool goes with the 2nd to last race form rather than last-race form

I think that Kebede has been widely unestimated and underappreciated throughout his career...

no one's underestimating him

around here it seems lotta guys are over-estimating him

already run 14 Ms & still only a 2"04'38pb

that indicates he is 2nd tier guy behind the 2"03 elites

he's done nothing in his career to show he is a 2"03 level guy

it is slow when the wr is 2"03'23 & the course on where the runt ran 2"04'38, dennis subsequently ran 2"03'45 & said he wouda chased the wr if he'd checked the splits

14 goes at the distance is more than plenty to get the "calibre" of the guy

there's nothing to indicate he is worth substantially quicker

he has an ole 59'35pb whereas geoffrey/makau/wilson have all gone < 59

the runt lacks the speed of the real top guys

err...

you do know sammy went on biggest party streak in athletics history partying solid for the near 4y from gold win to his death, turning up at Ms 1/2 fit & not even a shadow of his gold medal form ???

& he still beat the runt !!!

& the one time they raced when sammy turned up 100% fit/committed was in '08 & he slaughtered the runt by

2"06'32 gold v 2"10'00 for 3rd

at sammy's peak the runt coudn't carry his jockstrap

no chance 2"03+

CANOVA IS AN IDIOT. MO WILL WIN WITH A SUB 2'04...AND CLEAN...UNLIKE HIS RUNNERS!!!! ALBERTO IS THE MAN!!!

CANOVA IS AN IDIOT. MO WILL WIN WITH A SUB 2'04...AND CLEAN...UNLIKE HIS RUNNERS!!!! ALBERTO IS THE MAN!!! WITH HISTORY BEHIND....

CANOVA IS AN IDIOT. MO WILL WIN WITH A SUB 2'04...AND CLEAN...UNLIKE HIS RUNNERS!!!! ALBERTO IS THE MAN!!! WITH HISTORY BEHIND....

not when dennis showed how fast you can run chicago - 2"03'45 & he said he didn't check the splits & didn't realise how close he was to the wr, which he said he wouda chased if he knew the splits

"Halfway was passed in 1:01:52 and it was startling that nine men were still in contention. Kimetto and Mutai remained in the middle of the group, and he later said he was just running on feel, not watching the splits. He wasn’t thinking about the world record, but rather winning the race.

“I didn’t pay attention to the clock at all,” said the former maize farmer who has only been running seriously for three years. “I only paid attention at the end. It was only at the finish line that I saw I broke the record.”"

yeah

all of 2/12 younger than sammy

see what sammy did to him when he was in his best shape :

2"06'32 v 2"10'00 !!!