Truly incredible: Great minds think alike: Al Sal agrees with LetsRun: Mo Farah will go out behind lead pack in 62:15

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

Avocado's Number wrote:

personal pacemakers for Mo

The article suggests that Mo is part of the 2nd "band" with six other athletes, so the pacemakers are hardly personal. It would make sense for somebody like Martin Mathathi (although I don't know whether he's in fact with the second group), who isn't quite a threat for the WR, to go out with the "slower" group. Also, there are pacemakers for the even slower elites. For example, Fernando Cabada is pacing Ryan Vail and three other (British?) athletes and Vail said the goal half for his group is 1:04:45.

Yeah, avocado generally makes astute points, but not so much here. Races like this often have multiple pacers for different groups. And no one is forcing the top guys to follow Haile and go at WR pace. I am sure a few of the guys want to take a shot at the WR and think hitting that pace 1/2 way is the way to go, so they want that pace. Mo doesn't and will, with others, follow a slower pace-maker. Yes, it makes the entire affair less of a real competition, but that's the way these time-trial/big $ races are, and have been. No big deal.

no singlet no service wrote:

Is it just me or are they dialing back expectations in these final days?

This is just the old ruse known as sit and kick tweaked for the marathon distance.

Sit on it and Kick wrote:

no singlet no service wrote:

Is it just me or are they dialing back expectations in these final days?

This is just the old ruse known as sit and kick tweaked for the marathon distance.

Haha yes it is

Avocado's Number wrote:

Of course, I am aware that some marathons provide pacemakers for different levels of competitors, and I have seen pacemakers drop back to assist specific athletes after they have dropped off the lead pack. But I am not aware of any prior occasion on which London provided pacemakers for a second "band" of athletes running CR pace, just two seconds per mile slower than the designated pace for the lead pack.

Because that's a really strangely specific situation.

Yes, maybe it will affect his competitor's strategy, that's part of marathon racing, you plan based on what others might do, big whup

When you are good you are good. Running in front group or 2nd group or with the masses will not change the fact. The guys in the front pack are not obligated to run with the pace or if they do they can relax in the 2nd half and still run great times. People are making a fuss about nothing here.

MIC ITW wrote:

This is not the way a champion like Mo should be racing.

When you are getting paid as much as he is, you have to go for the win.

The UK record?, that is nonsense. You race to win when you are getting paid 6 figures to take the start.

The winner will be someone who is in the lead pack at halfway.

Someday you will realize that not going out with the leaders "is" the way to win:

So Kipsang et al should play the same game, and ask Haille to go out in 61:50-55, so they don't blowup.

*You're welcome.*

SMJO wrote:

Apart from their generally terrible writing the use of "Your Welcome" is a bit of a letsrunism.

I would maybe give the Bojos a small amount of credit for using that and actually knowing the correct spelling.

In fact it's probably not worth ridiculing someone for using that since it is really rather common for people to close with it.

Your Welcome.

Guppy wrote:

I honestly think Mo will fade if he goes out in 62:15 and don't understand why that's the target. 62:45 or even 63:00 would be more reasonable. 63:00 first half with a 62:00 second half is still 2:05:00, faster than Bekele, faster than any debut ever. If he goes out in 62:15, expect no faster than 2:06.

Of course I'm just some schmuck on the internet though. Perhaps Al Sal knows better than me given he works with Mo every day.

There are at least 5 people with sub-2:05 debuts (6 if you count Mosop at Boston)

Avocado\'s Number wrote:

But I am not aware of any prior occasion on which London provided pacemakers for a second \"band\" of athletes running CR pace, just two seconds per mile slower than the designated pace for the lead pack.

And I can\'t really see that happening. Does the first group sprint for the first two miles to establish a meaningful lead of 10 seconds?

The weather forecast is actually pretty favourable, but I still don\'t see a world record. Other than that, the CR (2:04:40) and the win are definitely the top prizes for the top runners. There are pretty significant time bonuses, but I can\'t imagine that the top group will go out faster than 2:04:00 pace, if Farah is right behind them at 2:4:30 pace. 2:04:30 would be phenomenal in London, so why risk sub 2:04:00?

The best strategy for Kipsang, Mutai and the other top runners would be to run with Farah at close to CR pace, and assuming that Farah has kept up, accelerate when the pace makers drop some 10k from the finish, and Farah is in uncharted territory. Farah will only be a danger if he is still in the lead group with 2k to go - or if the leaders have completely overcooked it, and he can reel them in. The latter might be Farah\'s dream scenario, but I cannot imagine that Kipsang et al. will just hand it to him.

Who is planning on going with which group? One page says 7 with the slower pace and 8 people with the faster, but who are the individuals?

All-Kenyan wrote:

wtfunny wrote:

Rojo ... as another poster (tony the tiger) twice pointed out already .. it seems both you AND Al Sal simply read my post and went from there

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5726831&page=7

Does that feel good?

You're welcome.

You didn't "call" the time of 62:15 though.

Thanks. Yes, you didn't call the time.

Plus I can show you my browsing history. I've never read that page.

The interesting thing for me is people want to believe it makes sense to run with the leaders. But is it actually better to do your own thing? The group dynamic helps with energy but if Mo has his own pacers...... It should be fascinating.

nooby wrote:

I suspect, Heile as a pacemaker would end up determining the fate of the race. If he wants Mo to be in a position to win, he will not push the pace too hard in 1st half.

I disagree 100%. If Mo is with the lead pack at 13.1, he will not win. If they are ahead of him and blow up, he has a shot.

If I was coaching a top African, I'd say, "Run with Mo."

Mo's best chance to do well is to run a realistic pace as per 62 minutes plus, and hang together as well as he can for the second half of the race.

I said it too the other day after Bekele's Paris race, somewhere in these boards... clearly Let's Run stole my idea!

On the whole, I think the fans are underestimating what Mo can do.

rojo wrote:

If I was coaching a top African, I'd say, "Run with Mo."

Smart or not, that's never the way the top Africans end up racing.

Very true, the Africans are in it to win it.

Any other strategy is defeatist.

Track Historian wrote:

MIC ITW wrote:

This is not the way a champion like Mo should be racing.

When you are getting paid as much as he is, you have to go for the win.

The UK record?, that is nonsense. You race to win when you are getting paid 6 figures to take the start.

The winner will be someone who is in the lead pack at halfway.

Someday you will realize that not going out with the leaders "is" the way to win:

Surely it is one of the ways to win, I understand this. When the best in the world are in the lead pack, though, the odds of winning from the second group are very small because someone in the lead pack will almost assuredly hang on for the win.

If they don't think Mo is fit enough to run with the best in the world, then clearly it is his best strategy to hope they fade. Personally, I think Mo is fit enough and would have a better chance of following the lead group, that's all.

:)You mean don't read all the posts on this forum? :)Saying you can didn't read the page is like me saying I did call the time, I just didn't write it down. Or that one of your henchmen/moderators deleted it from my post. :)j/kThe greater point is that it would simply be a little bit crazy to tell Mo to go off on WR pace for a distance that's twice that which he's raced before. Especially in a field like this one.What gets me about it is the BS with Mo talking about doing what champions do, etc, how he wouldn't be in it if he wasn't in it to win it, etc, etc. They've known all along what the pacing is to be, who's in the field, etc, and yet they just now decide he's not going to go with the pace? It doesn't sound, to me, like a strategy aimed at winning .. it sounds more like a strategy aimed at not getting destroyed by a WR pace he can't stay with. That's good sense, of course .. but all the nonsense about 'in it to win it' is just that. I don't think Mo has any more intention of winning London 2014 than he did for London 2013.

rojo wrote:

Thanks. Yes, you didn't call the time.

Plus I can show you my browsing history. I've never read that page.

The interesting thing for me is people want to believe it makes sense to run with the leaders. But is it actually better to do your own thing? The group dynamic helps with energy but if Mo has his own pacers...... It should be fascinating.

All-Kenyan wrote:

No but you do spend almost all your posts ripping others down which is just as bad if not worse than bragging. It actually takes brain cells to produce content and make predictions, even if it has imperfections. Any ol fool can be a peanut gallery in the comments section.

Given that I was one of the first to suggest exactly what Mo has now announced he'll do, I don't think it constitutes being in a gallery. Any gallery.

Producing content doesn't take many brain cells. Producing GOOD content takes work.