Parker Valby and hIlls? Has she ever run a hilly xc course in her life? How did she do?

your logic is incredible!

Whose logic is it? I have read the posts. Please lay it out more clearly if I don't understand.

by your "logic" anyone who has won a flat race can't win. But of course they beat everyone else, so they can't win either. So, noone can win.

“…but she has taken on the "wall" at ARP many times.”

And faded there during the last 2K at 2021 Nationals, just as she did at Gans Creek for SECs.

‘Has demonstrated some weakness during last 2K of big meets on the more vertical sections of those courses’ is not ‘can’t run hills.’

When she wins on a challenging course (like Stillwater) against this kind of competition (NCAA Nationals), that criticism will go away.

Parker grew up a few miles from where I live, and I followed her through high school. There are no hills down here, but in my experience, that's not her biggest problem -- the biggest problem is going to be the cold.

It does not get very cold down here, and typically when it does, times for local runners are pretty bad (both in the high school and competitive hobby jogger ranks). It was in the 80s all week here, and we regularly have highs in the 70s basically the entire year. "Cold" to me is like low 60s/high 50s (with humidity).

So while we don't run hills, at the end of the day, a good runner is going to be fine on really any terrain. But getting acclimated to weather takes more time. If Saturday's race was going to be unseasonably warm, I'd give Parker a huge advantage. But I heard it's going to be cold, which sucks.

The logic doesn't end there though... she won at Nuttycombe and Panorama Farms, which are not flat.

Rojo do you ever try to do your own work before you try to get us to do your work for you?

I've already cast my ballot for Parker V to win, so I can't un-vote, but this thread has me somewhat, but not completely in doubt. She's a Florida girl which means both the weather and the terrain will be more of an obstacle for her than many others in the field. She also doesn't have the more powerful style of a couple other contenders. This combination could be enough to keep her off the top step.

That said, her coach is Chris Solinsky--a WI native and one of the toughest American distance runners in history. He's an asset in her preparation for this race. Two other assets she has is that she's just better than everybody else in the field. Is she enough better than Touhy and the other top contenders to make up for the environmental challenges that will be harder on her than others----methinks yes. If nationals were run on the same course she ran regionals, I'd predict her winning by up to 30 seconds against the same field she'll face Saturday. Additionally, this is a young woman who has shown that she's fully capable of handling adversity. She's put up incredible performances the past 18 months with significant obstacles related to injury and sub-optimal training. She's got the swagger from that experience and a dominating regular season this Fall.

In short, I'm sticking with Parker V, but I'm 65% sure she's gonna win, not 90% sure she's gonna win as I was prior to this thread.

IT'S VALBYMANIA!!!

its not a hard and fast rule but generally the "yeah but he/she cant win on a tough course" argument generally doesnt work out. generally the athlete who is a gazelle on a golf course pancake often guts it out on a hilly tougher course as well. not always but usually. humans are dynamic complex organisms not simple if-then programs. so Ive never understood the "she CANT win at" (xyz course) arguments ever.

remember what a lot of people were saying about Natalie Cook not being able to beat Angelina Perez at Eastbay because Balboa such a tougher course compared to those "flat" Texas courses she grew up on. And Perez was chewing up really hard Northeastern courses all season that year, throwing up dazzling speed ratings and setting course records left and right. but exceptional athletes arent so easy to pigeon hole. and theres something to be said for sheer strength of will in combination with great talent. so in the end if Tuohy wins this I dont think it will be simply because of hills (or weather even). it will be because Tuohy's strength of will is off the charts.

I agree

I completely agree with you. And if she has not thought out and then execute her ‘best race strategy’* (whatever that is), then the weather situation will encourage her to fall into previous patterns. By that, I mean she will jump out at the gun to get moving in order to get the body warmed up, and she will get cruising down that initial long downward slope, and within a minute she will find herself 5secs ahead of everybody else, and the lead pack will be licking their chops and using her as the pacesetter.

That is not how she ran at SEC. I will be surprised if there is separation in first K.

They will only see her on the straights after 3k because she will be so far ahead.

This is a great post, and we are agreeing. She is the blue-collar runner that was almost out of the sport completely, but dug herself out of the hole.

But she is still relatively ‘raw’, and I’m not really sure she can yet lead wire-to-wire in these conditions on this tough course.

All season long she has visualized and practiced this race, with the hand dealt her. She doesn’t have team mates capable of being at her side when the going gets tough. She doesn’t have a pack to pack-run with. She has known from the beginning that if it’s going to happen their is no supporting cast around her. When the other teams send team members to come up and clip her heals and crowd her, or even trip her, their is no retribution, so her MO has been to break free and go.

But this course will make one pay if they go out too early, and finding oneself the pacesetter on this course, when the punishment starts, will become even more discouraging out in the cold wind.

*there

You make it sound so dramatic. Who the hell needs a supporting cast to run well in a cross country race? I never had one and never needed one. Nobody ever fukked with me. Are you serious about being clipped and tripped and crowded on purpose? This doesn’t happen in my experience, at least not on purpose.

I will add that I do not believe you have any idea what you are talking about. You essentially said that a team might have designated goons to try to trip or clip another team’s runner. This is absurd. Does anyone here have any experience with this? Cross country is NOT (intentionally) a contact sport.