After Meb's performance at NYC today, do you think he is more likely to make the US Olympic team? Or less likely?

OP. I'd say I think his odds have gone up in my book. Guys like Meb and Hall in their primes are way above the other guys in the US. The only way Meb doesn't make the team is if he's hurt or if father time is catching him.His run today showed me he clearly wasn't hurt. In talking to Coach Larsen before the race, it was clear Larsen, he wasn't real worried about Meb's preparations for this one as he has before other races where it was clear there were injjury problems. So it's clear he had a largely injury field build up. Looked good today. Age may be catching him a little but I think Meb was saving himself a little bit for the Trials.

trials 4 meb wrote:

Did Meb run down to Leon or did Leon rise to Meb?

I don't think Leon and Meb ran the same. It just seemed like that as they were on tv together. Meb beat Ldon by almost two minutes. That's a lot.

7 4 Meb Keflezighi 2:13:32

8 16 Craig Leon 2:15:16

trials 4 meb wrote:

With Nick Arcinaga cratering over the last 8 plus miles, it is even harder to tell. Most people would have put Nick being a slightly better marathoner than Leon and just behind Meb. Nick is definitely in that pack of 12 or so guys vying for the 3rd (2nd and 3rd?) position to go to Rio.

I don't agree with this statement either. Who in their right mind would say Nick is "just behind Meb."?

Nick is a solid 2:11 marathoner. He's run that what 4 times? Meb K is a two-time WMM major winner and Olympic silver medallist. Even if one judges them by PBs, Meb's is 2:08 (but anyone in their right mind knows Meb is way better than a 2:08 guy) so he's 3 minutes better basically. 3 minutes is a lot - about 8 seconds a mile. There is a huge difference between a 13:00 5k guy and 13:25 guy. Same thing in the marathon with a 2:08 and 2:11. Yes Meb is 42 but Nick hasn't broken 2:14 in 4 marathons in a row.

If a 42 year old with recent form of 2:13 makes the team it's a piss poor team.

I'm going with the youngsters... 1. Puskedra 2. Ward 3. Estrada. Meb is there with 5-8k to go but then Estrada pushes it out hard and gets reeled in by Puskedra and Ward who battle to the line. Meb winds up 4th.

The question is... Which one of the favorites show up hurt? Ritz? Meb? Both?

The leaders hit the halfway mark in 1:06:49 today. Even if Meb did negative split to a 2:13:32, he still lost 3 minutes in the second half alone. He did not just cruise it on in to save it for the trials. Back to back 66 min halves were the best he could do. What does this mean? It means he is a shadow of his former self. Meb will finish 4th at the trials and be the most grateful and gracious 4th placer ever.

trials 4 meb wrote:

Does my status of Meb for the 2012 US Marathon Olympic trials change?

I don't know.

Did Meb run down to Leon or did Leon rise to Meb?

With Nick Arcinaga cratering over the last 8 plus miles, it is even harder to tell. Most people would have put Nick being a slightly better marathoner than Leon and just behind Meb. Nick is definitely in that pack of 12 or so guys vying for the 3rd (2nd and 3rd?) position to go to Rio.

I'd say Meb's stock stayed the same. Craig Leon's stock rose, while Nick's stock dropped. But the marathon is weird; anything could happen in February.

Arciniaga dropped off before halfway, while the pace was still moderate. Either his build-up was bad, and he showed up to collect some appearance, or he had a really bad day. Either way, it doesn't bode well for the Trials. A silver lining might be that he faded so early that he wasn't able to really beat himself up. With all that said, he has bounced back from poor races over his career. But he might not have a lot of confidence leading into the Trials after poor races in Boston and New York.

were you watching? wrote:

Arciniaga dropped off before halfway, while the pace was still moderate. Either his build-up was bad, and he showed up to collect some appearance, or he had a really bad day. Either way, it doesn't bode well for the Trials. A silver lining might be that he faded so early that he wasn't able to really beat himself up. With all that said, he has bounced back from poor races over his career. But he might not have a lot of confidence leading into the Trials after poor races in Boston and New York.

I haven't gone back to look at the splits, but I'd swear Arciniaga was still up there after 13 miles. And I said "8 plus miles" which is around mile 16. So, I was watching the race.

But I agree, either way it doesn't bode well for the trials. The point was that Nick was suppose to be a better marathoner than Craig Leon, and Craig ran a much better race.

If we base the odds for the US Olympic team off of NYC results, then we need to think about how Leon's performance today relates to Meb's and Nick's and whether Meb and Nick ran their race or if Craig ran his. The bigger answer is it probably doesn't matter. I'm not betting on Craig Leon to make the team....and I wouldn't bet on Nick either. But right now I'd put Craig above Nick. And whatever probability I had for Meb before NYCM 2015, would remain the same after NYCM 2015.

rojo wrote:

Even if one judges them by PBs, Meb's is 2:08 (but anyone in their right mind knows Meb is way better than a 2:08 guy)

What do you mean by "way better"? Meb's PB's, from 5000m thru the Marathon, line-up very well in the McMillan Calculator.

Citizen Runner wrote:

All around the times were relatively slow, even for NY (winning time 2:10:34).

Obviously you don't know the history of NYCM. This year's race was average for NYCM. 2:05 to 2:09 runners get humbled by the course. Go back 40 years and look at the average times for the winner and 10th.

Less likely.

You cant go by times in NY, its hard enough to walk across a street in NYC without stumbling.

I thought he looked kind of out-of-sorts out there, not cruising along as is his usual carriage. More worried I guess.

Perhaps its the hampered build up that the Brojos cited.

You cant train your way onto an Olympic team on an elliptigo.

He will fight for it in LA, but the younger guys will make the team.

Nick was 66:59, Meb 66:51, which jibes with my memory of seeing him starting to fall off just before/as they started to head up the Pulaski Bridge.

Per Letsrun: "After running 70-80 miles per week for most of the summer, Kibet realized he needed to beef up his mileage and put together a marathon-centric training plan. It was only at the start of September — less than six weeks before the race — that Kibet really began training as a marathoner, [...] and getting up to 110 to 120 miles per week."

This was far cry from the mileage he should be able to put in prior to the Trials... I'm really looking forward to the trials this year because there are so many guys with a legitimate shot at making the team. Here's my too early to tell prediction:

Kibet

Ritzenhein

Chelanga

Meb

Estrada

Eggleston

Cabada

Abdi

Puskedra

Pennel

Leon

Arcinaga

Hall

If we have learned anything over the years it would be you should never count Meb out.

joho wrote:

If we have learned anything over the years it would be you should never count Meb out.

seconded

Move over wrote:

If a 42 year old with recent form of 2:13 makes the team it's a piss poor team.

that was not the OPs question but I agree with your thought

I think Ryan Hall is the wildcard in all of this. No one knows what you are going to get with him.

Here is a great writeup by NBC Sports for the men and women about the chances of the US runners to make the team, after the NYC Marathon:

http://olympics.nbcsports.com/2015/11/02/meb-keflezighi-shalane-flanagan-ryan-hall-marathon-olympic-trials-favorites/

Meb and Ritz are the best bets. Puskedra has likely run his best marathon already and will over train and not have a good trials.

I still think I'd take Hall over any of the other guys not named Meb and Ritz for the trails. This one last time.

oh please wrote:

Meb and Ritz are the best bets. Puskedra has likely run his best marathon already and will over train and not have a good trials.

I still think I'd take Hall over any of the other guys not named Meb and Ritz for the trails. This one last time.

Hate to say it, but I don't see Hall finishing the trials marathon. I think he went public with the low T info to signal that he no longer believes that he can get back to a competitive level. My expectation is that he will start the trials marathon, drop out at some point before half way and announce his retirement at the post-race press conference.

Meb is not 42.

Correct, he's 40. And he ran just fine yesterday. Stayed with the leaders through 20M but made no effort to cover the big moves made by some of the best guys in the world from 20M to the finish. Sounds like he was a little bummed to get outkicked by Kawauchi at the end, but other than that I think he ran exactly the race he wanted to.

He was the favorite to win US Trials prior to this race and remains the favorite after. Could three other guys have great days and beat him? Of course, but if Meb is healthy when the race begins, I think he's 90+% likely to make the team.