FLN and NXN predictions: YOUR TOP 3 - time to put up watchoutxcrankings

No one within 20 seconds of him this year, and closer to 40 in races when he's actually been pushing.

If Tamagno runs FL, I just don't see him in top 3. He didn't do great last year, and I think he's already peaked.

Hunter from Va should definitely be in the top 3. Should be a good race. Really hard to say who takes the win. The season is so long by the time they actually race, it really benefits those runners who planned to peak at FL and not at mid-season.

see you in 2048 wrote:

I'm just going to say it right now and you can re-read this later. Olin Hacker. I won't say I told you so.

Yes, his PR is "only" 9:14 but that was extremely tactical on Day 2 of state. He took an 8:52 guy at Griak, challenged Solinsky's record at the Ridges and just claimed the NXN HL region going 4:57/4:57/4:41 + the extra .1. He has good mile speed and has only gotten better since.

His dad was 9th and 4th at Kinney. Olin is carrying that same torch and he is on fire right now. He will take some scalps. Be ready.

Olin should have the course record for the Wisconsin State Meet, Solinsky's state record. Course is longer now than when Chris ran it.

Also, Tim Hacker was also a NCAA XC Champ and USATF XC Champ...very good blood line!

FLN

1. Matthew Maton

2. Grant Fisher

3. Elijah Armstrong (ID)

NXN

1. Austin Tamagno

2. Tanner Anderson

3. John Dressel

DC Wonk wrote:

If Tamagno runs FL, I just don't see him in top 3. He didn't do great last year, and I think he's already peaked.

Hunter from Va should definitely be in the top 3. Should be a good race. Really hard to say who takes the win. The season is so long by the time they actually race, it really benefits those runners who planned to peak at FL and not at mid-season.

You think Tamagno has already peaked? What? Based on what evidence?

He basically has only run like 3 races so far and only one race that was contested at all. He is coming off of the highest mileage season he has done so far and he is a lot stronger than in years past. Not to mention that he has a history of performing very well at the end of the season, especially in track last year (He PRd in his final meet in mid June).

time to put up wrote:

Put your money where your mouth is watchoutxcrankings. The test of a statistician is ability to make predictions. We'll see how you do against everyone else.

And the top 3 individuals is the best test of a statistician? Watchout primarily does team rankings which are "easy" to question on a piecemeal basis but a lot harder to come up with your own overall rankings that are better. How about you post your team predictions for NXN after the regionals and score them against Watchout using an agreed upon scoring system? (maybe something like 2 pts for correct team place minus the total differential for any team in the wrong place or simply the total differential between actual team scores and projected team scores). I'm not saying what Watchout does is perfect, but it's far better than I could come up with and I'm yet to see someone do better on an overall national basis versus arguing about one specific team and if they should be ranked 10th or 18th etc.

nxn

girls:

Great Oak

American Fork

FM

boys:

American Fork

Great Oak

FM

Good points about Watchout's team rankings. Very difficult exercise, not an exacting science, and he does an good job at high school TEAM RANKINGS.

Problem is, Watchout all too often pulls his focus away from team rankings and promotes Washington individual runners and NXN to the point of obsession. He is a passionate advocate for NXN which is fine as everyone is entitled to opinion and that event aligns with his team ranking focus. He has posted that he lives in Washington State, so naturally he has an affinity to those runners. However, he uses his team ranking expertise to overly promote his agenda (NXN, and WA individual runners) and downplays those that choose to compete at Footlocker.

By multiple postings of the names Wilmot (last year) and Anderson (this year) and NXN (every year), he thinks if says it enough times that it will impact who the individual national champion is and what the better event is. Did it last year on Dyestat and he is using the same tactics this year on different threads on LR.

Watchout, stick to your team rankings - they are appreciated.

can you watch the Penn Relays race for free?

FlN

1. Johnny boy--Dressel

2. Osberg the flying ninja

3. FIsher -The finisher

NXN:

1. Tanner - The ginger Samurai

2. Tamango- Luchador

3. Miller- DA MILLER LITE

I wonder which of these runners is prepared to lead the race. Fisher and Maton and other guys with good mile speed aren't going to take it out hard, even though they can run sub-15 easily. But some of these other guys probably have no hope in a kickers race...who will push? Dressel maybe? He got burned in a kickers race last year.

Unless Ostberg is stupid (and he's very, very smart), he should lead. People know Fisher's modus operandi. His challenge is to win in spite of that.

Let's see the results of the qualifiers and then predict. I bet some of the high flyers mentioned in this chain have already peaked and there are a few guys still under the radar that are going to step up. The regional results will give more clues.

Not sure anyone here is so much better than the rest that they can lead the whole thing and still win. Seems like you would have to be in substantially better shape than everyone else to pull that off with the whole field drafting off you. And I doubt anyone could drop Fisher or Maton given they've both run well into the 14s for 5k. Everyone likes to tout the big margins of victory all these guys have had over their local competition but realistically, (and especially looking at track times which are still the best point of comparison) no one here is 5+ seconds than anyone else over a 2 mile race.

DC Wonk wrote:

Hunter from Va should definitely be in the top 3. Should be a good race. Really hard to say who takes the win. The season is so long by the time they actually race, it really benefits those runners who planned to peak at FL and not at mid-season.

Agree when I faced this guy last year in xc, I knew I was seeing someone special. I thought since the guy was a sophomore that he would be great as a junior and senior. Then I saw Penn Relays and realized that he had already arrived. He is, in my opinion, at the same level of anyone in that field. I think with a season without facing a ton of studs will help him be Fresh to race. He will challenge Fisher and defeat those Northwest guys.

hasthefacts wrote:

Hunter is racing FL. Unlike some of the other top guys, he has not been pushed at all in any race this season and has won all of his biggest races by large margins. It will be interesting to see what he does with some actual competition. Go watch his Penn Relays 3000 to see how he responds to having a few guys to run against.

if you could give me a link to a vod i'd appreciate it. i can't seem to find one.

ib wrote:

Not sure anyone here is so much better than the rest that they can lead the whole thing and still win. Seems like you would have to be in substantially better shape than everyone else to pull that off with the whole field drafting off you. And I doubt anyone could drop Fisher or Maton given they've both run well into the 14s for 5k. Everyone likes to tout the big margins of victory all these guys have had over their local competition but realistically, (and especially looking at track times which are still the best point of comparison) no one here is 5+ seconds than anyone else over a 2 mile race.

This

ib wrote:

Not sure anyone here is so much better than the rest that they can lead the whole thing and still win. Seems like you would have to be in substantially better shape than everyone else to pull that off with the whole field drafting off you. And I doubt anyone could drop Fisher or Maton given they've both run well into the 14s for 5k. Everyone likes to tout the big margins of victory all these guys have had over their local competition but realistically, (and especially looking at track times which are still the best point of comparison) no one here is 5+ seconds than anyone else over a 2 mile race.

Then do you think the race will be slow? Seems to be a shame with such a fantastic field. Maybe Maton and Fisher couldn't get dropped on an easy course, but I think there are a few reasons that a fast pace would work. Firstly, guys like Ostberg and Mantz, while fantastic runners, simply cannot outkick Fisher or Maton, and WILL lose in any race over ~14:50. If they want to get a comfortable 3rd place finish, they can go out slowly; otherwise, they're doomed. Secondly, Maton was broken last year on the uphill-downhill of the final big hill, so it is possible to break him. While Fisher has not yet been broken by anyone since he got good, that doesn't mean he's invincible. Cheserek had that insane 24 second final 200 kick all last year in the NCAA, but Lawi managed to outkick him in the 5000 with a very fast pace to destroy Cheserek, although the move barely worked.

Fout got away from a great field in 2008. I could see someone going for it mid race and getting a gap. It is risky because the runner could fade badly.