For the love of god, people, Mo 62:15 IS A PLAN TO WIN.

Agreed on all three of those points. While Kipsang is certainly prone to mistakes like any other runner, if he were to go after an aggressive pace and pay the consequences for doing so in the later stages of the race, that would be on him. It's the same as any time a great runner on the track who has chased a record attempt has fallen hard off the pace and ended up losing the race as a result. If Kipsang, Mutai or anyone else has the goal of winning the race then they ultimately get to decide what strategy gives them the best chance to do that, just as Mo does by going out more conservatively. That's why the theories that this race is being taken out of their control to favor Mo are so ridiculous.

The notion that the meet organizers are setting up the London marathon for Mo to win is absolutely absurd.

Based on the Great North run, where Mo at least challenged Bekele to the finish, and the fact that Bekele could have run a course like London in 2:04-low, I am putting Mo at 2:04-mid with a well-paced effort in good conditions, which will likely net him a fourth overall, with the usual casualties up front.

In 2013, everyone went through the 1/2 in a blazing 61:34. Everyone died horribly starting at 25k. By 30k, the pace had dropped from mid 14s for 5k to barely under 16 for the leaders. Kebede dropped back starting at 25k and stayed relaxed and let the leaders pull away from him. Kebede stayed steady in the mid 15s for 5k while the rest of the pack fell off the pace badly over the last 12k.

Odds are that the vast majority of the field will crash and burn trying to run WR pace. Odds are also about even that someone will be able to hold on and finish under 2:04.30. If Mo can run between 2:04.30 and 2:05, he will have about an even chance of winning. Mutai and Kipsang can talk a lot of talk about Mo's inexperience, but they will not like seeing Mo on their heels as they start to come apart in the last 7km.

Ironically, Mo has a much better chance at winning this race with the leaders doing a WR attempt than if it were a true championship race. In a true championship race with no pacers, Mo would be lucky to crack the top 5. But in a race where most everyone will be running the first 1/2 about 30-60 sec faster than they should, Mo will almost definitely be top five and a threat to win if the top runners over extend themselves like they did last year.

Roller wrote:

only on letsrun could ANYONE be criticised for intending to go through the half in 62.15 on their debut marathon, on the grounds that he's somehow 'wimping out'

So true.

I can hardly wait until poor Galen's marathon debut. Nobody here will give him a chance.

Bring Back the 880 wrote:

we saw last year what can happen if runners get in over their heads with a too hot first half. But yeah, Mo is probably the one to be most concerned about getting in trouble with too fast a pace since he will be in uncharted territory soon after half way.

Last year it wasn't the 13.1 pace that killed everyone, it was how they ran it (incredibly unevenly, going almost sub-14 for a 5k).

Ventolin is right.

Whether or not they do 2:03:30, 1:01:45 will not cause the Mutais, Kipsang or Tsegay to blow up.

With a 1:02:15 first half, Farah MAY be able to stalk through a few of them into the major places. On the other hand, he may blow up. Nobody can say they "know" this one way or the other.

Faster half marathoners have blown up with slower opening halves than 1:02:15, that we do know. And there is no reason to think that Farah gets better rather than worse at longer distance. (Think 3:28 1500----> 1:00 half passing out)

spot on. I don't see Mo having his renowned kick at the end though. I predict 1:02:30 + 1:04:00 but still picking up 4 or 5 places the last 10K for 3rd place.

I can see him winning this thing and setting the WR. He'll obviously be NOPed up nice and proper. (See what I did there?)

Possibly think 62:15 is the best split to aim for at London?

2013

Halfway 61:34

Winning time 2:06:04

2012

Halfway 62:12

Winning time 2:04:44

2011

Halfway 62:44

Winning time 2:04:40

2010

Halfway 63:06

Winning time 2:05:19

2009

Halfway 61:36

Winning time 2:05:10

2008

Halfway 62:15

Winning time 2:05:15

Great posts.

The hotter the Mutais and Kipsang burn it early, the better the chance for Tsegaye, Kiprotich or Farah to pick them off (assuming they have the good sense not to drop 4:40 miles all over the place in the first half).

Any athlete going through half way in under 62 minutes in London so far has blown up.

There hasn't been a WR in London since, when, 2003? They've attempted since and got no way near. The course record is now 1min17 slower than the WR. 62.15 seems a more sensible split than 61:45 if your going for the win on this course.

The first half of the course is faster though.

I had a dream about running the London marathon in 1:59:33 surprise.

Didn't stick around for any acclaim though.

My previous best was over 2:37.

Seriously though, it's going to be incredibly interesting how it will play out - can hardly wait.

2:04:00 ? Perhaps?

I'm hoping no one will blow up and be the marathon goat.

Rojo, this is your smartest post ever, no joke.

He won't try and win it unless his agent pulls off a 7 figure "bonus" deal in the next 24 hours.

Like he got for winning in the Olympics?

nastea rymes wrote:

So Mo will be towed in the second pack. Then the second pack will collectively tow Mo to the lead pack and the eventual win? He and his pal Al Sal expect Mo to blow these Joes away and and catch the probable winner, as a beginner?

You just have to look at past results to see how good this strategy is for the win. Anyone who goes out hard is always eaten up by the second half of the course.

Bring Back the 880 wrote:

I think a lot fewer people would have a problem with this if it didn't appear that the primary pace group (61:45) didn't seem like it was set up to make Mo's top competitors crash and burn.

As others have pointed out, why not just make the main pace group the 62.15? It is still CR pace after all! Here's hoping Kipsang knows what he is doing and that G. Mutai is ready as well.

Um, because those athletes have requested a faster pace? Why should they all defer to Mo? "set up to make Mo's op competitors crash and burn"..hahahahah that's funny. The Nike conspiracy extends all the way to London! hahhaha

Farah has been one of the best distance runners in the world for *at least* 5 years. He was a World Jr Champion 13 years ago, ran 1:48 a decade ago, was 11th in long course XC six years ago (which means only Ethiopians and Kenyans ahead of you) and 3:33 1500 not long after -- which is more or less the ticket to be a contender in an Olympic final for a 5000/10000m guy.

Moreover he was sub 13:00 5000m and roughly low 45 minute 10 mile capable before he ever met Salazar. And these are now Farah's peak years.

His career hasn't exactly been out of the blue.

As for the other point, the bottom line here is fitness does in fact bring additional confidence. And it should -- part of it is experience and part of it is capability. Those things don't mean that a world class runner is necessarily any more driven or tougher than a good HS or D3 runner but when push comes to shove in a race bet on experience and confidence to make a difference more times than not. The mental and the physical cannot be so easily separated.

Your post reminds me of my favorite quote from Dellinger to McChesney:

"Want to be mentally tough? Get fit as hell."

Farah was NEVER A WORLD JUNIOR CHAMPION. Where did you get that from? He was an above average runner from 2005-2010 but nothing spectacular. Certainly not a world beater. The weird thing is that no one thinks his rise to prominence is suspicious. But these same people who support him have no problem calling out other athletes.