Truly incredible: Great minds think alike: Al Sal agrees with LetsRun: Mo Farah will go out behind lead pack in 62:15

dsrunner wrote:

Dialing down expectations by going for 2:07 by going out in 1:02:15.? Sound bona fide?

And yet when Steve Jones set the record his first half was 61:43.

Isn't that basically what Tsegay(sp.) Kebede did last year?

wtfunny wrote:

All-Kenyan wrote:

You didn't "call" the time of 62:15 though.

I didn't .. and neither did I brag about how smart I am only to sign off that post with the almost childlike error of "Your welcome".

If one is gunna brag about how great one's mind is, one does well to avoid making the kind of mistakes that most folks correct in 4th grade.

Gnome sane?

No but you do spend almost all your posts ripping others down which is just as bad if not worse than bragging. It actually takes brain cells to produce content and make predictions, even if it has imperfections. Any ol fool can be a peanut gallery in the comments section.

HardLoper wrote:

dsrunner wrote:

Dialing down expectations by going for 2:07 by going out in 1:02:15.? Sound bona fide?

And yet when Steve Jones set the record his first half was 61:43.

Which tells us is that he was capable of a faster time on the day if he'd gone out a little slower.

They're doing exactly what I had feared they might do -- provide personal pacemakers for Mo so that he wouldn't have to choose between running at WR pace with Haile and running unassisted. I've been wondering how they were going to give Mo an extra edge in the race, and this appears to be it. To me, it brings to mind one of the most blatantly biased decisions in the history of this event -- turning the 2003 women's elite race into an allegedly "mixed" race on the eve of the event for the sole purpose of providing male pacemakers for Paula Radcliffe in her personal quest to obliterate the women's world record.

Under these circumstances, other contenders might be well advised to run with Mo's pacemakers and let Haile run at WR pace by himself. Given the times that have been run here in the past, a runner who is assisted by pacemakers at 2:04:30 pace (presumably, through at least 30K and maybe significantly longer) probably has a better chance of winning than a runner of exactly the same caliber who is assisted by pacemakers at 2:03:00 pace through 30K and is then left on his own.

In my eyes, Mo's chances of winning just went up dramatically in light of the personal assistance that he's being given. I've always disliked the use of pacemakers, and the use of pacemakers to provide an edge for a specific runner, especially the home-town favorite, is even worse.

nooby wrote:

I suspect, Heile as a pacemaker would end up determining the fate of the race. If he wants Mo to be in a position to win, he will not push the pace too hard in 1st half.

Two months ago, the race organizers announced that Haile would be the main pacemaker, and said that he "will" run at WR pace through 30K. That would hurt Mo -- unless Mo were given his own pacemakers at a somewhat slower, approximately CR pace, in which case Haile's WR pacing for the lead pack through 30K would increase Mo's chances of winning. That is apparently the plan, and it greatly increases Mo's chances of winning.

Would 2.x seconds/mile slower over the first half make a big difference?

Avacado's number, does Mo not have the right to go out at whatever pace he wants to? And if so doesn't he have the right to have pacers with him too? I don't see how that's unfair. No one is being forced to run at any pace.

may i point out that the "blow up" last year after 61'45 split had nothing to do with the actual split, which was no real problem for some of the guys in that field

the problem was that there was a ridiculously fast 5k split in that 61'45 split

that's what killed them

if they run an even pace 61'45, 1 guy i guarantee will hang on to potentially repeat that split in 2nd 1/2

MIC ITW wrote:Bekele was as in 2:03 shape last weekend

that woud make stan biwott the "moral" wr holder for the M seeing as he ran 2"05'12 on that course in hotter weather...

HardLoper wrote:

dsrunner wrote:

Dialing down expectations by going for 2:07 by going out in 1:02:15.? Sound bona fide?

And yet when Steve Jones set the record his first half was 61:43.

Are you sure that wasn't his split when he just missed the record?

He was never really innit to winnit. He's innit for the money. The rest is hype.

Great post. I especially agree with the final sentence.

MIC ITW wrote:

You race to win when you are getting paid 6 figures to take the start.

7 figures!

Avocado's Number wrote:

personal pacemakers for Mo

The article suggests that Mo is part of the 2nd "band" with six other athletes, so the pacemakers are hardly personal. It would make sense for somebody like Martin Mathathi (although I don't know whether he's in fact with the second group), who isn't quite a threat for the WR, to go out with the "slower" group. Also, there are pacemakers for the even slower elites. For example, Fernando Cabada is pacing Ryan Vail and three other (British?) athletes and Vail said the goal half for his group is 1:04:45.

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

Avocado's Number wrote:

personal pacemakers for Mo

The article suggests that Mo is part of the 2nd "band" with six other athletes, so the pacemakers are hardly personal. It would make sense for somebody like Martin Mathathi (although I don't know whether he's in fact with the second group), who isn't quite a threat for the WR, to go out with the "slower" group. Also, there are pacemakers for the even slower elites. For example, Fernando Cabada is pacing Ryan Vail and three other (British?) athletes and Vail said the goal half for his group is 1:04:45.

The fact that the 2nd band is so close to the first is kind of weird. This isn't the same as a pacer for someone like Vail who is not really in the same race as Mutai, Kipsang, etc.

Apart from their generally terrible writing the use of "Your Welcome" is a bit of a letsrunism.

I would maybe give the Bojos a small amount of credit for using that and actually knowing the correct spelling.

In fact it's probably not worth ridiculing someone for using that since it is really rather common for people to close with it.

Your Welcome.

Agree, this is very insightful. I still think the winner will come from the front group, but hadn't considered it quite like this.

Using Haile to set WR pace and "gap" Mo creates a great drama. If they are really setting this one up for Mo, Haile will need to take it out at 61:20 or thereabouts to ensure the leaders all crack and Mo comes loping by for the win at the end. At 61:45 I believe a few of them will be able to hang on and fight for the win.

LikeBekeleButSlow wrote:

The article suggests that Mo is part of the 2nd "band" with six other athletes, so the pacemakers are hardly personal.

Wrong. "But Salazar believes that pace will be too hot for Farah in his first ever marathon and has asked for the double world and Olympic champion to be paced to the halfway mark in 62 min 15 sec."

I realize that Bedford is saying, "None of the pacemakers have been asked for by Mo or put there by Mo." He made similar statements back in 2003 when, just weeks before the event, he suddenly changed the women's elite race into an allegedly "mixed" race specifically to assist Paula Radcliffe with male pacemakers, contrary to the wishes of Catherine Ndereba, Paula's top competitor, who had committed to the elite women's race long before it was suddenly changed to a "mixed" race. (Curiously, the only men who were permitted to run in that allegedly "mixed" race were hired pacemakers who were not actually racing.) In both cases, he has accommodated the known wishes of a specific home-town favorite while suggesting that the athlete did not actually demand or request the specific assistance that was provided.

Of course, I am aware that some marathons provide pacemakers for different levels of competitors, and I have seen pacemakers drop back to assist specific athletes after they have dropped off the lead pack. But I am not aware of any prior occasion on which London provided pacemakers for a second "band" of athletes running CR pace, just two seconds per mile slower than the designated pace for the lead pack.

This throws a real monkey wrench into the racing strategies of Mo's competitors. I can certainly see guys like Kebede, Kiprotich, and E. Mutai (if he can discipline himself) choosing to run with Mo's pacemakers. Kipsang may have a tougher choice. He is probably the one athlete most capable of running WR pace for 30K and still hanging on for the win, but his chances of winning have probably just dropped significantly.