Bekele vs Farah in London Marathon: who you got and in what time?

The half marathon world record was set in a race with no pacers as were Wanjiru's world records. I don't know if the splits were even but there were no rabbits. Neither Farah nor Bekele has run sub 60 yet and farah has had a few chances. I don't think that either will be a top marathoner.

someone had to do it wrote:

p^r wrote:

Farah is a 1500m/3k runner. He could maybe break 2:10 which is pretty good for a mid dist guy but he won't ever get much faster than that

no

he is a 3k/5k guy

same as daniel komen

No, his 1500m time is better than anything he's run for 5k. He is a 1500m/3k guy.

I guess I still do not understand why a guy like Farrah, who is still improving in the shorter races, wants to step up to the marathon. He ran a 3:28 1500m, and now wants to run 42.2k! He can only be doing it for the money! It is a shame"

Both Bekele and Farah, sub 2:04:30 or DNF (unless able to finish in the top 3 ).

[/quote]

Neither Farah nor Bekele has run sub 60 yet and farah has had a few chances. I don't think that either will be a top marathoner.[/quote]

They could have easily broken 60:00 at BUPA if that was their goal. There were several miles jogged at 4:4x-high, one at 4:50... they had a 4:21 mile in the middle of the race and a 4:20ish mile at the end + a 60s 400m finish... in wet and windy conditions (60:00 is ~4:35 pace). Anyways, as Stephen Kiprotich has shown, you don't have to be the fastest racer in the world to be the best as long as you're a savvy racer with a strong zigzag.

Re: London, I think they'll Mo and KB will end up in the 2:05-06 range... likely in 3rd-5th place (unless all the front runners blow up, again, trying to break the WR).

If the London Marathon indeed lets Bekele in and employs pacers for his WR attempt, then I predict that the WR will fall in London. But it won't be KB or MF.

It could be Kipsang, or one of the Mutais ...

Unless of course they water down the field and make this all about the big duel. Which is risky - what if one of them drops out leading up to the race?

London is not Boston where they try to set up a local win.

If the marathon is a strength event, and XC is a strength event, then I'll take the guy that has 5 or 6 world championships over the XC distance.

I'll admit that KB surprised me with his half debut, just due to the fact that he has raced quite poorly since WC 2009, save for basically that one 26:43 effort in 2011. But while his "12:37" wheels might be gone, he might still have some unearthly strength to draw upon.

Your analysis is usually pretty good. But just because a runner threw down a 2:03 it does not follow that he will or could do better later. Unfortunately, none of us know when we have achieved our last PR....in the open.

son of kimetto wrote:

So let me get this straight, Ventolin and you believe that Bekele and Farah won't have good races as their is a learning curve for the Marathon? How do you two explain Dennis Kimetto then? What was his learning curve when he produced a 2:04:15 effort while obviously easing off. If an unknown farmer has almost zero learning curve his first try out, then why can't two of the worlds greatest ever distance runners run well at the marathon?

Kimetto is the exception, not the rule.

By your logic Tadese, a far more experienced racer than Kimetto, should be able to better Kimetto's 2:04:16 debut right? Wait...

Indigo Montoya wrote:

son of kimetto wrote:

So let me get this straight, Ventolin and you believe that Bekele and Farah won't have good races as their is a learning curve for the Marathon? How do you two explain Dennis Kimetto then? What was his learning curve when he produced a 2:04:15 effort while obviously easing off. If an unknown farmer has almost zero learning curve his first try out, then why can't two of the worlds greatest ever distance runners run well at the marathon?

Kimetto is the exception, not the rule.

By your logic Tadese, a far more experienced racer than Kimetto, should be able to better Kimetto's 2:04:16 debut right? Wait...

It is often hazardous to infer patterns from a sample size of one.

kkx wrote:

No, his 1500m time is better than anything he's run for 5k. He is a 1500m/3k guy.

No

He is a 3k/5k guy

He simply hasn't been in a time trial 5k race in a long time

learn

someone had to do it wrote:

kkx wrote:

No, his 1500m time is better than anything he's run for 5k. He is a 1500m/3k guy.

No

He is a 3k/5k guy

He simply hasn't been in a time trial 5k race in a long time

learn

Learn what exactly? You don't know that for sure. He may or may not, but the ACTUAL fact is that so far, his 1500m time is significantly better than his 5000m times. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise.

Generally, is how marathoning works is everyone Kenyan and Ethiopian run very well at a marathon. If they are training well in Africa there is a high probability that they will race the marathon well. I agree that Kimetto is an outlier as is Tadesse for his poor performances. However, those two aside this happens all day with the east Africans. I don't see why Bekele would be any different nor Mo if he is training in Africa with the big groups. Bekele would most certainly be training in a big group as he knows what it takes to be successful. If Mo doesn't go to Africa to train for 2 months he is gonna be screwed come london.

Tadesse only trains with 2 other guys and thats why he sucks at the marathon. Ritz trains by himself mostly or with one or two guys and we know about him. Look at Teg, 212XX.

The Africans have proven that if you have a training group of 200 guys going at it everyday and the best of the best are controlling themselves then they are going to run 203-205. Without the groups this is just a fantasy.

These tiny American training groups all fail because the group training is not there.

Nice analsys.So Kipsang could probably go 26:20 if he trained for it, is that what you're saying? You might be right.

He is so smooth.

KB is over the hill due to injury. He will run 2:05 after 2-3 attempts. We know little of Moh's capabilities since he has never run a really fast 5000m (sub 12:50). Given his 1500m speed and focussing on marathon training, he is probably able to go

2:02. remember he ran 60:10 after a long season. He could have gone 59 with 3 weeks of 1/2 marathon training (super threshold training with high volume training modulated in blocks).

yyy wrote:

2:02. remember he ran 60:10 after a long season. He could have gone 59 with 3 weeks of 1/2 marathon training (super threshold training with high volume training modulated in blocks).

Long season? He barely raced and when he did it wasn't hard. What are you talking about?

Excellent post and I couldn't agree more. When you have 50 or more guys pushing each other not only does it raise the bar but the cream rises to the top. Conversely, when you have one or two pampered American or imma donnas you kinda just end up nowhere in the marathon.

yyy wrote:

Nice analsys.So Kipsang could probably go 26:20 if he trained for it, is that what you're saying? You might be right.

He is so smooth.

KB is over the hill due to injury. He will run 2:05 after 2-3 attempts. We know little of Moh's capabilities since he has never run a really fast 5000m (sub 12:50). Given his 1500m speed and focussing on marathon training, he is probably able to go

2:02. remember he ran 60:10 after a long season. He could have gone 59 with 3 weeks of 1/2 marathon training (super threshold training with high volume training modulated in blocks).

BULL

no

mo won't expect to be good at M as his speed decay is too quick 3'28 -> ?26'30 -> M indicates lotta speed decay as most other 26'30 guys ( kenyans mostly arond that mark ) decay off likely 3'35/3'36

kennster just isn't bringing enough basic speed to the M ( unlikely better than 26'50 as evidence of last 2y )

remember, sammy brought 26'41 speed to the event ( wouda been more like 26'30/26'35 if run "properly" as he went off at a suicidal 26'16 pace for 6k !!! )

he's trained for the M from the getgo & as far as i'm aware hasn't run a track race ever

his "natural" racing distance is the M

the M isn't their natural distance & 1 has too much speed decay & the other doesn't bring enough basic speed to it

legsss wrote:What does not making the 10k team have to do with how fast he was this year? They don't have a team time trial do they?

the 10k team was picked mostly on who coud put up the fastest 10k tt

that's why gebre-12'46 went to somewhere no one had ever heard of & ran 26'51 to make team

kennster coudn't get anywhere close & missed the team