It’s gotta be Nico at Nats

I think that’s a really interesting analysis, but on the other hand how many guys have had 13:11 5k PRs going into the NCAA xc championships and not had a shot at winning.

I mean, it’s not inconceivable that Nico runs 13:05 for the 5k this year, winning NCAA xc at 20 is certainly a possibility for him. Like I said earlier I wouldn’t necessarily pick him over the field in a betting sense, but he has all the talent and fitness to win on the right day

Here is a video of some of mountain regionals. It is AF specific, but has some good video. Nico is definitely cruising at the end.

To be clear, I was strictly referencing conference and regional meets.

I agree that Nico looked vulnerable at Cowboy Jamboree and Nuttycombe, but it seems like he’s peaking now (unlike others who beat him at Cowboy Jamboree and Nuttycombe). Given how much he beat Bosley by at the Big Sky meet (incredible race—just front running the whole way), it’s likely that he had quite a bit left in the tank at regionals and was still able to gap everyone except Bosley.

Nats is hard to predict and I’m going on very limited information here, but I’m not afraid to feel confident that he can get it done. We shall see

I agree 100%. I’m not saying Nico winning is inconceivable; he absolutely has the ability to win. I’m just saying it’s unlikely given recent history. Yes, Nico is a special talent, but so was Rupp. In 2007, Rupp ran 27:33 and qualified for the world track championships, and he still didn’t win NCAA cross that fall.

Orton sat out of regionals and won nationals just last year. I believe the only cross races she ran in a BYU uniform last season were her conference meet and the national championship.

Somebody in a different thread said he sat out because of a sore hammy.

BYU sat Whittni Orton for regionals last year and she won the national title, so it's been done.

Why is everyone forgetting Kiprop and Scudder?

Kiprop is undefeated on the year, obviously he is one of the favorites to win. Scudder only has 1 loss, a 1 second loss to Kiprop.

Who had the better first bump finishing their regional meet? Nico or Maier? Do you think Sprout for fist bumping the athletic trainer this weekend?

davin thompson to win it all

No, he was running backwards...

The title is his for the taking.

How is this true when we don't have a good Kenyan of note? When you have an unbeatable world-class Kenyan, it's the best in years. When you have a bunch of national-class white guys, it's interesting but not the 'toughest in years."

Tempo? stop , just stop

While we have seen some breakout races from a variety of runners this year, such as Ky Robinson, the toughness of the Sweetwater course will favor consistent runners such as Nico Young, Charles Hicks and, don't sleep on, Casey Clinger. While I think the likely battle will be between Nico and Charles, Casey has consistently improved at Nationals (24th, 13th, & 8th) and will be well positioned to challenge if conditions are right. There is definitely a lot of deep talent this year, though, and this will be an exciting Nationals.

In a good way

Bob Liking very much coasted at regionals. Top 10 at nationals. Top 5 threat.

Weather is going to be a factor. Not all these favorites will like the conditions, and I'd expect a a few surprises.

Just looked at Saturday’s forecast, bit on the chilly side. I’d argue however that the course will be the bigger factor over the weather. All season long we’ve seen blazing times including rip roaring 10ks this past weekend but OK’s course is not a speedway and can be punishing.
Top five will be competitive but if he’s having a good day, I’ve got Nico winning.