Conner Mantz says 4:46 pace at altitude feels "comfortable" - Indicates he will go out in 1:03 at Chicago Marathon

I don't know man, Olin Hacker is going to be tough to beat

I doubt he runs under 2:10

If it was Parker Stinson saying this, I'd laugh. With Mantz, I think I have to take it seriously. AFAICT, everything this guy say he's gonna do, he basically goes out and does.
I'm definitely interested enough to wanna watch, and see if he can back it up.

This is a dangerous thing to request of Mantz. He may do just that.

He has earned my respect, tho. Didn't want to like him but that man g r i n d s. I'm hoping for a competitive performance.

His half marathon best doesn't suggest 2:06, but like his coach says, he is in great shape.

I like his confidence but he’s running 2:15 in his debut, last 5 miles he crashes completely with a quote, “my training indicated I could run sub 2:06 but the legs and weather just didn’t hold up. I went out hard and paid the price. The marathon is a cruel mistress. We’ll reevaluate and focus on the track for the next year and attack a fall marathon in 2023.”

You only get 1 debut marathon. I'm glad to see him go for it, whatever happens.

I think he'll run 2:07:53, beating the debut record by 3 seconds. He goes out in 1:02:59 and guts out a 1:04:54 second half. He finishes eighth with the addition of Jemal Yimer Mekonnen.

The “safe” prediction would be “I’ll say he runs 2:08 in his debut, but I could imagine him breaking 2:06 in a few years.” Here’s why I don’t think predicting 2:06:xx is outrageous whatsoever:

- He’s unlike any other American marathoner of recent years (since Ryan Hall debuted, I’d say), a 2-time reigning NCAA XC champ with 13:10/27:25 SBs, who seems suited to the longer stuff and is only 25. Our other recent notable debutantes (apart from Rupp and maybe Leordard Korir, who was almost 33 when he debuted in 2:07:56) have either been guys who were basically washed up on the track (Derrick, Bumbalough, Tegenkamp) or nowhere near Mantz’s level in the NCAA, or ever on the track. You can’t generalize the current U.S. crop of 2:08:xx-2:09:xx marathoners (Fauble, Hehir, Kibet, Droddy, Bennie, Butler, Smith, Iacofano all sub-2:10 in the past 24 months) and assume that puts a kind of limitation on Mantz, since Mantz is on a different talent level than any of those guys.

- Two fast American debutantes—Hall in 2:08:24 pre-supershoes and Leonard Korir in 2:07:56–were not necessarily any more promising than Mantz. Hall had run that awesome 59:43 AR, but his 5k/10k lifetime bests are slower than Mantz’s SBs, and I really believe Mantz could have broken 60 for the half this year in a fast race with good weather, which he definitely hasn’t contested yet. Korir ran 27:34 for 10,000 in the Netherlands in 2019, again slower than Mantz’s SB, was only 72nd at World XC, and did win U.S. 20k and half marathon titles that year but only in 59:06/61:53, so certainly no better than Mantz has proven he can do.

- Mantz has performed so consistently well in the past two seasons. In 2021, of course he won two NCAA XC titles, he ran 27:41 & 27:42 and was 5th in the 10k at the Olympic Trials, and capped a long year by winning the U.S. half marathon title in 60:55. This year he’s only gotten better, running 13:10, 13:11, and 13:13 5ks, 27:25 for 10k, and placing 7th at the U.S. Champs 10,000 but only 2.11 seconds behind McGorty in 3rd. On the roads this summer he ran well at Peachtree (over 30 seconds ahead of Chelanga, Tiernan and Lomong and 1 second behind Matthew Kimeli, who’s run 3 halfs this year between 59:30 and 59:46), was 2nd to Kipchirchir by 1 second at the U.S. 8k Champs but beat Korir and Chelanga, and most recently beat all 3 of those guys to win the U.S. 20k Champs, showing excellent form in a marathon buildup.

- Supershoes. They’ve been around for a few years now and we’ve gotten acclimated to their impact on the WR and all-time list, but maybe we haven’t made the adjustment for a talented U.S. debut because there just haven’t been that many. It seems likely that with supershoes, Hall would rave debuted in 2:06 and eventually run 2:04 non-aided. It seems equally likely that all the recent 2:08/2:09 Americans I listed above would only be 2:10-2:13 types prior to supershoes, but again, Mantz is on a whole other level. When Hall debuted in Spring of ‘07, the WR was Tergat’s 2:04:55, 3:29 faster than Hall’s debut time. To finish 3:29 behind the WR today, one would need to run 2:04:38. Obviously that’s not gonna happen, but maybe 5:50 or less is possible.

2:06:55 is my prediction, and I don’t think it’s outrageous.

I agree with your reasoning and could have written that myself. I predict about a minute faster than you, 2:05:xx. I'm assuming out in about 1:03:00, then finishing even or a little stronger. If I'm wrong, oh well. I want to put a faster guess out there.

Can it really be that outrageous to suggest an elite runner will run a little slower than the Master's world record?

2:05:40 incoming.

Reading this thread tells me why Americans suck at the marathon. It's smallthink. Good thing Mantz doesn't think like that.

His track PRs are on par with guys who run 2:04. He's young and still improving. Do 21 year old Kenyans in their debut marathon think about getting a good effort in and hoping to hit their stride in their 4th or 5th marathon? Hell no, they compete for the win from the first effort.

USA is woefully underperforming at the marathon. My prediction is that this is finally going to change.

Never up, never in.

Good for him

Set his own limits instead of others'

I listened to this podcast and I have high hopes for Mantz. He seems equally confident while also respecting all that could go wrong in 26.2 miles. He also mentioned he is eyeing the AR in the half, seems pretty confident it’s within his reach in the future. I’m expecting him to run at least high 2:07s, but would not be surprised if he does better. Even if he blows up, I still think his time will be above the standard as of late of American pro men.

I said months ago he should be able to run 2:07, maybe 2:06 if it's a perfect day. 2:09/2:10 for him would be a disappointment. He's arguably the best US road runner right now, arguably better than Rupp. Rupp showed up at the USATF 15k last spring and got beat by a handful of guys, Mantz has run the USATF half and 20k championships and won both and was top American at Peachtree in just over 28 flat, beating guys who have 10,000m PRs around 27:30, Mantz himself has a sub 27:30 10,000 PR, and he seems to run even better off of the track. The guys he consistently beats are people who can run 2:08-2:10, so he should probably be a 2:07 guy on a course like Chicago. The weather is showing about 48-50 degrees during the early part of the marathon, winds around 8mph, so nearly perfect weather. He's going to run pretty fast. I'd make the over/under 2:07:24 at this point.

I’m a big Mantz fan, love his attitude and he seems to be an athlete able to consistently perform to the top of his talent level. This is his “special” gift, that he’s able to give all he’s got to give. His track and road performances to date suggest he should be able to break 2:07 in favorable conditions. Of course, this is a marathon debut and all of what has preceded is necessary, but not sufficient, to guarantee a fast time. There are just too many examples of athletes who look on paper like they will run a fast marathon, especially a debut, and it does not materialize. Mantz does really look inefficient when he runs, and I’m concerned this will catch up with him in the last 10K. In the end, I think his mental game is too strong and he’ll do great: 2:06:5x.

I love Mantz's attitude and aggressiveness. It's so refreshing. I also think he has the proverbial engine to be successful. To me, his form does not look super fluid or efficient and as he goes longer and faster it will be a limiter for him. I hope I'm wrong. Whatever you think of Rupp, his form is beautiful and been part of his not just being fast, but his longevity and consistency. But I love hearing Mantz will go for it.