Brussels 5k is being paced for 12:45. I predict Fisher will run 12:46.79. What does everyone else think?

What really matters is that he runs that or close to that in a championship race. He’s got a crazy fast 10k PR with no domestic or international hardware to show for it.

I’m not confident in your assumptions. For one, this is the same meet (just 1 day later on the calendar) at which Barega/Gebrhiwet/Kejelcha ran 12:43/45/46–though admittedly that was not a championship season.

Kejelcha sometimes likes to target fast times. McSweyn is famous for his willingness to lead at an honest pace, and he probably wants that first sub-13. There are several guys in the field with 5k PRs that they’ve seemingly progressed well beyond—Grijalva, Oscar Chelimo, Lobalu, Ndikumwenayo—and one or more may be bent on running fast. Neither Lobalu nor Ndikumwenayo ran in the World Championships, so they could be closer to peak and hungry to prove something. And then on top of all that, you have Americans who would probably love to break 13 (Klecker) or break Lagat’s 12:53 AR (Fisher).

So I can easily imagine the race being a quick one with help from multiple athletes. Say the pacers get them to 3k in a nifty 7:44 (~12:54 pace), then Grijalva or McSweyn leads the 4th K at 13:00 pace, and then the contenders run the last k in sub-2:30–bang, sub 12:50 race, with a great opportunity for Fisher to break the AR and a slew of guys to set PRs. That’s what I’m hoping for, anyway.

It’s honestly hard to know. Could Woody sacrifice himself? I’d think McSweyn Fisher Klecker and Mburu would have the most to gain from a quick race. Mburu I think could ensure his place in big meets from now on if he can add a sub-13 to his worlds silver. McSweyn I’m sure wants the sub-13 and for Fisher it could be his best tactic to win a la Monson. Not that Chelimo, Thierry or Lobalu wouldn’t love a better PB but they are big kickers. There’s also some DL points stuff involved I’m sure which is why some of the bigger names might hold back a bit

I left out Grijalva who’s situation is like McSweyns to me. I think he might take it on if it lags and believe in his strength as far as not getting kicked down.

Lol - of course he will. Dude was a 13:30 runner like 3 years ago.

Maybe. I'm certain a fast time depends ultimately on the Americans pushing the pace. This is about incentives. The African runners are incentivized by finishing position as it brings prize money ($10k is huge for them) and entry to the DL final and an even bigger purse. Americans forget how much prize money matters because their contracts are guaranteed or tied to times. With no incentive to run fast, I don't think you'll see any of the African runners push the pace early.

That leaves it up to the Americans and McSweyn. Like I said, Klecker has made a big deal of sub-13 and Fisher will want the NR. The question is are they prepared to lead from the gun? They have strong incentives to do so, but it's an unfamiliar position for them. What we know is that for Fisher, finishing 4th in 12:51 is better in terms of his acclaim within US running (and financially) than finishing first in 13:05. There is an open question of whether Kincaid will want to be an unofficial pacer (a big ask for a pro with his own ambitions). McSweyn is the wild card. He had a poor championship season, lost the mile NR to Hoare and may feel he has something to prove. Will he have the endurance for 5k after his struggles with Covid?

I still think the odds favour a race in the range of 13:00-13:10

I'm sure there's a plan, just as there was a plan for the women's 3000 and the men's 1500 in Lausanne. Pacing lights mean nothing if athletes don't go with them. Do you think Fisher would be prepared to lead this race from early on if he felt the pace lagging? I've seen it done, e.g. McColgan in Hengelo earlier this year when she ran 30:19, or Aregawi at Pre (though he was chasing World's selection at that point). It's not how he normally runs but sometimes you have to try something different

I predict that he is so pissed about missing a medal at Worlds that he becomes the first person to race a 5000 on pure hate... 12:41.

Fisher new AR.

Best to all of our USA men running.

Africans may not push the pace in this one and may run a fast then slow pace in order to sting the legs and win the prize purse rather then go for a fast time.

He ran 13:30 in 2016 as a college freshman then decided to focus on winning races rather than on times (which I admit he did a poor job at and lost to Morgan McDonald in every big race)

12:44

Pace is supposed to be as follows. Not sure why it's not even splits...

1000: 2:34
2000: 5:05
3000: 7:39

7:39 is 12:45 pace. Does Fisher go with it and does he get the AR?

AR is 12:53.60 by Bernard Lagat. Fisher's pb is 12:53.73 from February.

Actually, his progression by year is:

2016 13:30.13

2017 13:37.77

2018 13:32.00

2019 13:29.03

2020 13:11.68

2021 13:02.53

2022 13:03.86

Pretty much ran the same time every year for 4 years until the shoes came out then jumped on a 18 second pr which seems...reasonable. If he runs 12:45 he will have improved his time by 45 seconds since 2019 after not improving at all from 2016-19.

I just hope he does well, so one of those....gone home devastated , is not a thread.

I suspect they want Akbache to hold back the first K and not get tempted into running 28 for the first 200 and 2:31, lest we end out with a race like the 3K in Monaco. Usually I'd be worried about any second pacer hitting 7:39, but I do see that its Emmanuel Korir who has good credentials (13:08, 5th at Kenyan Trials). From 3-4K I hope Fisher, McSweyn, Grijalva, and Mburu are willing to keep the pace going because I think the rest of the field would be content to wait until the last 800.

Yes

12:48

When fisher ran 12:53 in February he came through 3k in 7:53 then held 60.0 the rest of the way.

His plan will probably be similar to what he did in his 3k American record. Conserve energy the first 50-60% of the race then try and catch the guys who went out insanely fast.

I think he will get the American record, but can he win the race?

Pace is set for Kejelcha. Expect to see Fisher go with this pace. Kejelcha asked for 2’34 k’s so 2000 will be 5’08 not 5’05.

also: Diribe Welteji asked 61-62-62 laps
(2.33.5 at 1000m) for the 1500m. 3 (!) pacemakers for this one. She didnt’t talk about the WR. But this pace is for 3’50. Perfect race for the American girls to just go with the train.