Timothy Cheruiyot runs 3:29 FTW in Paris!!

My position is that your position is based on assumptions, and that different assumptions reasonably lead to different conclusions, with the same historical data. You misunderstood what I called "assumption". The assumption is that "we could draw a high correlation between doping and WR holder performances", which we cannot because we know too little from doping busts to characterize the impact of doping on the best performances. It was not an "assumption", but (according to "Not Buying It") a "reasonable suspicion" that Aouita doped (and El G), based on (according to me) the "assumption" that there is a high correlation between doping and WR holder performances, despite (confirmed by "Not Buying It") our lacking data to show a high correlation. Recall that nations like Russia, with arguably the strongest doping culture produced no men able to compete with 1990 WR holders, and about a dozen women. Note also that "guilt by association" (by nationality) is a logical fallacy. This is the basis for your circumstantial evidence. Not really sure I want to open up other debates but your facts regarding El G's career and timing of retirement seem a bit fabricated: - El G. had a long a prolific career, winning a Junior Championship in 1992, and retiring after the Olympics in 2004 - Not sure what significant EPO testing milestone you refer to after 2004, since EPO testing started in 2000, and unannounced OOC testing for EPO started in May 2002 - It also seems significant that the Sunday Times and ARD talked about the high blood values of Ramzi, in a leaked blood database between 2000-2012, but made no mention of El G.

If by "everybody" you mean "at least 5", then you'd be right about my argument, but still wrong about the rest.

Coevett wrote:

Your whole argument is based on the ridiculous assumption that everybody cheats equally, no matter what the opportunities for doping, no matter what level of corruption in the country, no matter what relative financial incentives, no matter the number of test positives etc.

The use of Russian men is a terrible example. Prior to 1990, Abramov ran 13.11.99 in 1981 at a time we know Soviets were using transfusions & steroids, there were other good runners in the early 1980s. In 2000-2001, Shabunin ran 3:32/3:49. Then there is um, Borzakovskiy, 1:42!! Russia has terrible demographics, the state funding doping apparatus struggled in the 1991-2002 period because it was reliant upon funding from a bankrupt government. Vast amounts of Russian men are alcoholics. Russia has never been an ideal place for Distance Runners, it's under 3 feet of snow for half the year. Russians also prefer sports that pay better.

"we know too little from doping busts to characterize the impact of doping on the best performances." What? 20 years ago runners were doing 12:39 the best so far this year is 13:01. I wonder why? And this runner is barely tested.

'also that "guilt by association" (by nationality) is a logical fallacy.' Mate, Moroccans would sit around doping in Ifrane at night in the 1990s. They were like a TdF team.

El G was third in 1992, the two ahead of him were Geb and Kirui, two really excellent examples (Kirui is the brother of Richard Chelimo, a Rosa athlete who suddenly made miraculous gains). In 1993 Kirui won the WCs solo in 13:02 @ only "18."

+1

Good points on Russia - that'll finally put rekrunner (aka ex-runner?) in his place with his constant montra of "where were the all Russian men during the EPO-era." And rekrunner/ex-runner are naive if they believe there isn't a doping culture in Morroco were doping could be the normal preparation for a distance runner. I'm sure Ramzi, El G, Mourhit brothers, Koauch & the Boulami brothers all had nice fireside chats whlie training in the Atlas Mountains. ?

Well you're an idiot because I had a big argument on here with Deanouk where I pushed that there were good Russian and German athletes in the middle distances in the 80s and he said there wasn't

So you are arguing with yourself.

I'm not sure where people have got this idea that I think PEDs don't work or something. There's quite enough evidence that PEDs work and have been used by athletes since the start of this sport. Drugs predate athletics and the idea of 'fair sport' didn't come into play or consider drugs as something 'unfair' until much later.

Even today with all our knowledge we accept some drugs, with known performance enhancing stimulants such as caffeine being accepted as normal and young college athletes drinking multiple shots of strong coffee or taking pro plus right before races.

Bringing up Armstrong in the first place was a change of subject, which was the timeline of OOC testing for Kenyan, Moroccan, and UK athletes. Deanouk said "dozens": "Despite far less testing over past 30+ years, dozens of elite Kenyan middle and distance athletes have been caught using EPO" I said "not dozens for EPO", and "less testing is only less OOC blood testing" and that most AAFs are in-competition urine tests. I did not state, either over or under, the status Jeptoo, Sumgong, Jebet, and Kiprop. The context was lack of OOC blood testing in Kenya, and these are examples of "urine testing".

I didn't really state my opinion on Morocco, but stated that your opinion is not possible without assumptions, and at least one logical fallacy, and that with different assumptions, we can reasonably have different suspicions without leading to contradictions. Did Morocco have a doping culture in the 1980's? How many doping positives, and ABP sanctions before 1990? When did Aouita make these statements -- two decades after 1980s? Scientists extrapolated a 30 minute time to exhaustion at 80% peak power stationary cycling result to 3 seconds on elite athletes in the 1500m? Based on what? What is the likelihood or margin of error?

Doped to the Max wrote:

Well...you have your opinion on Morroco & I have mine. Maybe both El G & Auitoa "achieved their best performances without doping" but I'm very skeptical. Here's my analysis (first of all, IMO, it's a culture of doping over there; 38 doping positives since 03, 10 ABP sanctions, implication in the recent doping ring bust in Spain, family members busted for doping, etc.).

...

Reasonable suspicion for Aouita is the statements he made advocating doping to some of the athletes he was coaching (not good!),

...

Interestingly, in the "Effects of erythropoietin abuse on exercise performance" meta-analysis, Wilkerson et al. is referenced where in their study that tested the effects of rEPO on time to exhaustion with non-elite subjects, it was extrapolated from their data which suggested a reduction of ~3 seconds in overall running time in elite athletes in the 1500m.

rekrunner wrote:

When did Aouita make these statements -- two decades after 1980s?

You really are the worst doping apologist here Rekrunner, and that's quite a plaudit on this forum.

Russia is the best example of a doping culture, and a poor example of a performance culture, succeeding with about a dozen women, and racewalking. You can also pick Spain, Greece, Ukraine, Romania, Turkey, and more. The best match is Morocco, with a strong doping record, and a better than non-African record of performance. East Africans have a strong performance record, from around 450 men since 1990, and several dozens of women emerging years later, but the doping record for EPO "at the top" is 3 women and 2 men, and about 50 athletes (many women for steroids) since around 2011. The point is, we have a lot of historical data on doping and doping busts, and a lot of data on performance, but where is the correlation? We are not talking about small samples, but all worldwide performances spanning decades. What is the link to doping and 12:39, and what is the link to testing and 13:01? Is that knowledge? Was El G and Aouita sitting around doping in Ifrane at night in the 1990s?

It looks like you are easily fooled. Of course Moroccans have a proven history of strong faith in doping.

Now That's Telling It Like It Is wrote:

+1

Good points on Russia - that'll finally put rekrunner (aka ex-runner?) in his place with his constant montra of "where were the all Russian men during the EPO-era." And rekrunner/ex-runner are naive if they believe there isn't a doping culture in Morroco were doping could be the normal preparation for a distance runner. I'm sure Ramzi, El G, Mourhit brothers, Koauch & the Boulami brothers all had nice fireside chats whlie training in the Atlas Mountains. ?

"Doping apologist" doesn't seem appropriate until 1) you show that someone doped, and 2) I somehow said it was OK. Name calling is a last resort because you've run out of merit.

Coevett wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

When did Aouita make these statements -- two decades after 1980s?

You really are the worst doping apologist here Rekrunner, and that's quite a plaudit on this forum.

Renato Canova wrote:

Subway Surfers Addiction, please tell us, do you not think there is a serious problem in US of students shooting in their College teachers and other students ?

There is not in US a serious problem about the widespread possession of guns and dangerous weapons, without any real control ?

Does this mean that ALL the US students, or ALL the American people owning a gun, are killers ?

Try to have some more balance in your analysis. And not forget that the Kenyan athletes running around the world are 20 times more numerous than the athletes of every other Country, so, if several of them are really doped, the percentage of doped compared with the number of athletes competing everywhere is SMALLER than in other Countries.

Every generalization is ALWAYS wrong. We are individuals, not cloned persons coming from the same stamp.

I reckon that you're trying to trick me into taking a position in the American gun debate because you know that it brings out the crazies on here.

Are you telling us that American gun ownership and Kenyan doping are some sort of moral equivalence, that is somehow a legal entitlement, a birth right?

Didn't you tell us on here that because there was so many Kenyans, that it was only possible test a few top ones? So I don't know how you can make the claim that Kenyan elites are disproportionately cleaner than the rest when we know that elites are more likely to dope than hobbyjoggers. Did you you ever hear the rumour that dodgy managers had as scheme where they pumped drugs into East Africans and then sent them off to road races that weren't Marathon Majors because there was absolutely no testing at these events?

I'm pretty sure that you were also the one that said Kenyans were genetically superior to non Kenyans, so yes it was you that was making generalizations.

So when are we going to see some of those off-scores that you promised?

Renato, tell us a bed time story about how Italian runners all instantly gave up blood transfusions when it was made illegal in the mid-1980s, only to continue to improve national records and at the same time we know Italian cyclists still did them.

What is it about Italy, first the Rosas, M. Ferrari and

Not good.

rekrunner wrote:

"Doping apologist" doesn't seem appropriate until 1) you show that someone doped, and 2) I somehow said it was OK.

Name calling is a last resort because you've run out of merit.

Coevett wrote:

You really are the worst doping apologist here Rekrunner, and that's quite a plaudit on this forum.

Fair enough, but outside this little bubble of LetsRun, I'm pretty sure that :

1/ Most people would consider somebody a doping apologist if they defend a runner with such a suspicious progression, who had a doctor linked to PEDs, had to flee a country for pressurizing athletes to take PEDS, and who comes from a corrupt society which is the most infamous on Earth for ped use culture.

2/ Most people would not consider me a racist for suspecting all Kenyans of doping when they continually read of top Kenyan stars being busted for PEDs.

You make the argument that Coe must have used peds because he was white and only East Africans (and a Brazillian, but same difference in your eyes) have run as fast. Then you accuse me of racism for thinking that notoriously corrupt societies where testing is abysmal and yet which produce far more positive tests might actually have a greater problem of doping.

rekrunner wrote:

When did Aouita make these statements -- two decades after 1980s?

Like 10 years after he retired, and less than 2 years after he was seen rolling around on the Brussels track celebrating a World Record with Brahim Boulami. BTW, Aouita and Khalid Boulami are BFFs, really dumb & dumber (or in athletics terms dope & doper). Those two reek of dirty.

rekrunner wrote:

Russia is the best example of a doping culture, and a poor example of a performance culture, succeeding with about a dozen women, and racewalking.

You can also pick Spain, Greece, Ukraine, Romania, Turkey, and more.

The best match is Morocco, with a strong doping record, and a better than non-African record of performance.

East Africans have a strong performance record, from around 450 men since 1990, and several dozens of women emerging years later, but the doping record for EPO "at the top" is 3 women and 2 men, and about 50 athletes (many women for steroids) since around 2011.

Enough is enough!...you're definitely a troll on this issue! You just contradicted yourself by saying up thread, and I quote: "Of course Moroccans have a proven history of strong faith in doping." Now you state: "The best match is Morocco, with a strong doping record, and a better than non-African record of performance." Translation: Morroco is doped-to-the-gills and performs better than non-African nations. If this wasn't the case, you'd put your little "faith" based doping disclaimer with that statement.

FFS, it's perfectly clear now that you're an A-1 troll on this issue. You perfectly know that there's a performance benefit from 02-vector doping (EPO & blood transfusions) with elites. How much of a performance benefit (e.g.1%, 2%, 4%, etc.) with elites at different events (e.g. 1500, 5000, marathon, etc.) is surely open for debate. But it's difficult to have an intelligent discussion of the benefits of EPO/blood transfusions with someone that just wants to troll.

Que Sera Sera.....

No I prefer my take. Conte was stating this only two years ago. As recently as 2012, Dick Pound was trying get WADA to employ Conte as an advisor because he knows more than the testers. In fact the drugs are virtually identical to the BALCO days.

Brazier and Murphy, again two athletes who performed better (more or less) on academic scholarships (about $40k pa) than they have for shoe companies potentially paying millions. Murphy made large gains, to be fair he did make massive gains over a range of distances though from 400m relay splits to 5,000m. Should we be suspicious of him yes, especially joining NOP. But then again this is more suspicious

PERFORMANCE PLACE DATE

2018 1:43.91 Shanghai (CHN) 12 MAY 2018

2017 1:43.94 Rovereto (ITA) 29 AUG 2017

2016 1:50.17 Dar-es-Salaam (TAN) 30 APR 2016

Or this

2012 1:41.73 London (GBR) 09 AUG 2012

2011 1:47.28 Lille (FRA) 09 JUL 2011

Now That's Telling It Like It Is wrote:

in Morroco were doping could be the normal preparation for a distance runner. I'm sure Ramzi, El G, Mourhit brothers, Koauch & the Boulami brothers all had nice fireside chats whlie training in the Atlas Mountains. ?

Oh, to be a fly on the wall at that one. ? ("Oh could you pass me some 'couscous,' some 'hot sauce' and some nandrolone") sounds more interesting than "potatoes, peas and carrots" (all we need now is Mindweak's $32 for tea).

Wait a minute. By "worst doping apologist" did you mean I'm really bad at being one? Then I take it back, you are right and then I might be the worst one. You suggest that "most people" would misuse the term "doping apologist" the way you do? Is that another logical fallacy? Appealing to the masses? It's a bit unfair, speaking for everyone else not participating in this forum, having no chance to corroborate this statement. You might have a point if I actually took a proactive position of defending Aouita. I don't think I actually did, so sorry if you misunderstood. I took the position of saying your "attack" is one that requires assumptions and a logical fallacy, without ever stating my opinion about Aouita. Do you believe the assumptions you chose, because after all, it is a personal choice, is a personal reflection of your own character and morality? Just a thought. Getting back on track, to be crystal clear, if Aouita doped, I would consider that wrong. It would be against the rules, and against the spirit of competition, and I would consider it attempted cheating and would not ever apologize or excuse the wrongness of it. I might doubt the magnitude of any alleged performance effect, but this should not be misconstrued as an argument undermining the wrongness -- I consider these two different arguments completely decoupled. It would be just as wrong even if the performance effect made him perform worse. The question I ask is if "a suspicious progression, ... a doctor linked to PEDs, ... pressurizing athletes to take PEDS, and ...coming from a corrupt society which is the most infamous on Earth for ped use culture." is enough to conclude he doped for his best performances. Maybe these arguments work in a bar, or for a tabloid, but not in academic or legal settings. Athletes can progress without doping. After 5 years of competing university, "wejo" improved by a massive 7% with long slow runs, at altitude. Some might call that suspicious because it was late in his career, a suspiciously large improvement, and in Flagstaff. Strong arguments to be sure. Athletes can see doctors, for other reasons. If Aouita encouraged athletes to take HGH while in America, that is wrong. Several Australian organizations investigated that claim and could not confirm it. Many Moroccans doping doesn't mean all of the best Moroccans doped, or that doping is the only path to fast performances. Russia is more infamous than Morocco. I don't think I ever argued that Coe used PEDs. Maybe you are confusing me with "ex-runner", but then again, even that is wrong, since he used the same "Italy = blood doping" argument you used for "chaouita", and not a "because he is white" argument. I also don't accuse you of racism, but of stereotyping, besides assumptions, and logical fallacies.