Predict my Chicago time based solely on 4 weeks randomly selected from my training cycle.

4:27

My prediction is DNS. You will get a flat tire on the way to the airport and miss your flight.

2:24:59

2:22:01

5:30s? 2:24-2:28. What's the goal and what have you run before? If you've gone under 2:30, there's no reason not to open in 1:12-13 and see if you can work down to the low/mid-2:20s. If you haven't gone under 2:30, maybe open at 1:15 and work it down from there.

5:25-5:30 pace (2:22:00-2:26:30) seems realistic. I would probably shoot for 1:12:30-1:13 through halfway.

Good luck. Report back.

2:22

NERunner053 wrote:

5:30s? 2:24-2:28. What's the goal and what have you run before? If you've gone under 2:30, there's no reason not to open in 1:12-13 and see if you can work down to the low/mid-2:20s. If you haven't gone under 2:30, maybe open at 1:15 and work it down from there.

PR is 2:30 and change

Goal is up in the air. Leaning towards 5:30 pace after reading responses. Definitely something in the 5:25 - 5:40 window. It sounds like my thinking is in the correct ballpark.

2:17

What were your workouts like when you ran 2:30 - anything close to this?

When people post these threads, I kind of like to try to figure out what kind of shape the OP thinks they are in based on their workouts. My guess would have been that you think you are in 2:24 shape. I would have made that guess based on the 3 mile intervals being at 5:10 pace and the long stretches of 5:30 pace running mixed into the long run. That strikes me as someone doing a workout at tempo pace and at marathon pace, respectively.

I then usually adjust a little bit depending on what else the OP has to say - how hard the workouts seemed to OP, what their other PRs are, whether they are workout heros, etc. With the marathon, I would tend to want to add some time in any event, because that is just the nature of the beast - it is rare that it goes as smoothly as training does.

So I am going with 2:26, but I would think that going out in 1:12 seems really reasonable but for the potential weather issues. It is a blazing fast course. If you are heat adapted, that may still make sense. If not, maybe backing off into the 1:13s is a better idea.

I might be to slow for you...

I hope to. See you at the start... I'm running 1:13 through the half...look for blue Nike 4% shoes, addidas kit, red head. In American development corral.

Well I'm hoping to run 2:26:30 and am not 100% sure I could do a few of your workouts. How hard were the 15:30 efforts?

I can run 4x 16:30 - 3 mi.....currently pretty casually.....but 15:30 would be pretty darn intense for me. Maybe doable....for 2 sets but I would be very engaged.

I did a ton more work at marathon pace... 5:25-35 pace.

60-85 miles per week

*Most weeks 5x2 mile at 5:30 pace...or similar. 4x5k, 25k alternating

Any idea what the masters field looks like this year?

2:26:30 would win in years past (2:30:54 won it in 2015), but my sense is that times have been picking up as masters running has gone through a renaissance. Some of it may be midlevel guys doing who knows what, but some of it is guys with real talent, like Clint Wells who won last year (I think) coming back into the scene.

Either way, good luck - I will be tracking you.

Smoove: the workouts have all been about 10-15 seconds (per mile) faster this time around than last cycle (2:30). I have also bumped my avg mileage from 78 per week up to 92 per week.

MasterBlaster: I am coming through halfway in 1:12:30-1:13:00 and will get there as evenly as possible. Probably looking to stay between 5:32-5:37 for the first half and hope to pick it up from there. I am also in the American Development corral, I will find you.

I realize I have gone away from the original premise of the thread. I just saw the helpful feedback and wanted to respond. Plus, the answers having me feeling confident that my goal of a 5+ minute PR is not crazy.

MasterBlaster (continued): the 3 keep le efforts were easily my best workouts of the cycle. Honestly, those just happened to be the weeks that came up on the random number thing.

For reference, those runs were basically at 10k PR pace. Probably dialed it up too much for the first one and then the second time I had a three mile segment (week 16), I might’ve pushed a little bit too much to match what I did previously. Thankfully, I recovered well and am feeling fresh/ready.

2:26:13

I don't think that taking a shot at a 5 minute PR is at all crazy in the context of the workouts that you provided and given the differences in your training cycle this time around as compared to the last time around.

Pulling for you and Masterblaster13, and Angryjohnny, and my wife, and two of my women athletes who are going for OT times, and a bunch of other folks to get weather that stays cool until later in the day.

I'm with smoove... go through the 1/2 around 1:13 ... if you are a bit quicker don't panic. The your either gonna start to fade...hold on... or crush it...

5 minute pr is doable but the weather and your legs will decide most of that at mile 18-26.

I don't think you'll know much until about 13-15 miles and then it will be obvious.

I've been in 2:28 shape 2-3 times and only once the weather and my legs decided to cooperate.

Good luck again...look for a red head I should be rolling 5:30-35 until the half... I'm shooting for 5:34s but most of my training has been 5:30 so who knows.

tl;dr

It's shaping up to be one of the worst conditions in marathon history (if you've been following letsrun). I predict a dnf at mile 4, when you become overwhelmed by the heat.

Those workouts and miles are better than anything I've thrown down before! Assuming that you don't feel burnt out during the taper, I'd say you have something around 2:21 in you. But yeah, the weather looks warm so I'd bet you positive split by 5 minutes :(

- a guy who ran 2:25 at Chicago in perfect conditions a few years ago