Here are my final compiled men's projections. This took a while, for sure. But I'm glad i'm done with it, and I think it will do well against the final results.
http://xcrankings.blogspot.com/
My biggest shockers are Portland jumping up into a podium spot and Iona landing in 9th. Iona has been ranked as high as #2 on other's boards, but i'm not buying it.
What do you think? Your predictions?
very hard year to pick....to me the only sure things are Colorado Men and Edward Cheserek....
not one is talking about Futsum Zienasellassie, I think he and Bates (female -both) have been holding back, I see them both completing for the win.
some of my picks are just a "gut" feeling....can't wait until tomorrow!
will be Cheering for Colorado men, Emma Bates for the win, and Crag Kutz for top 10.
Women's Individual Picks
1. Crystal Nelson
2. Leah O'Connor
3. Emma Bates
4. Kate Avery
5. Katy Moen
6. Rachele Schulist
7. Shelby Houlihan
8. Charlotte Arter
9. Liv Westphal
10. Elise Cranny
Men's Individual Picks
1. Edward Cheserek
2. Anthony Rotich
3. Eric Jenkins
4. Futsum Zienasellassie
5. Stanley Kebenei
6. Maxim Korolev
7. Blake Theroux
8. Scott Fauble
9. Aaron Nelson
10. John Mascari
Men's National Team Picks
1. Colorado
2. Oregon
3. Syracuse
4. Wisconsin
5. Portland
6. Stanford
7. Villanova
8. Northern Arizona
9. Oklahoma State
10. Iona
Women's National Team Picks
1. Oregon
2. Colorado
3. Michigan State
4. Iowa State
5. Wisconsin
6. New Mexico
7. Florida State
8. Georgetown
9. Arkansas
10. Stanford
TOMMMMY AWAD
I agree with you on Colorado and Ed. Those are as close to a lock as you can get in cross country. But i'll debate your team podium placers. In my opinion, Wisconsin has a great pack of young guys. But they're just too inexperienced right now to make a big dent on this field. It's an extremely deep year and it would be lucky to make top 10. Next year they should be podium favorites with Colorado, Stanford and Syracuse. Also, people are sleeping hard on UCLA. They have a fantastic 1-5 pack that will all be returning next year. Remember they have the 25th place finisher from 2012! And yes, that is where Oregon should finish based on talent, but they just don't have the 3-5 strength. I think that stems from a reliance on middle distance guys to move up. They don't recruit XC guys, they recruit middle distance runners that can run pretty good at XC (ie: Prakel, Pepiot, Haney)
I also have to disagree on Rotich. He's a tremendous talent, but he isn't reliable for cross country. Especially because the weather looks to be bad again this year, I just don't think he deals with that well.
Also, NAU and Futsum have been slept on hard. I agree. They return their top 5 essentially. Shrader is gone, but they got the guy who placed one behind him in 2013 (Byrne). I think they're just really good at flying under the radar and peaking at nationals. They just haven't been hyped up like last year.
DINGUS wrote:
They don't recruit XC guys, they recruit middle distance runners that can run pretty good at XC (ie: Prakel, Pepiot, Haney)
yeah. also like Levermore, Maton, Leingang, and Cheserek.
the weather is going to be pretty good, around high 40s with a small chance of rain at race time. Flotrack and letsrun state the course is firm and fast.
every year there are big big winners and big big losers, experience, tradition, and good coaching count for a lot, I will keep my Wisconsin pick!
to be honest, the dept is so deep teams like Syracuse & Olk State could finish out of the top 10.
BTW: the most interesting and most competive will be the womens individual champion and top 10 finishers, really I don't have clue, I guessed the best I could.
Go Emma Bates....would be quite a story! but there are just to many good women to this year to BET on anyone winning!
That would seem to be good news on the course, I was afraid that it would be a mess, with frozen clay underneath and wet grass slipping on the stuff underneath.As for the women, you have MSU with #2 and 7 but only getting third. They are probably the deepest womens team and I am not sure how they would be averaging 40th place for those other runners that have been much further up even in big, fast fields like Wisconsin. They also probably ran their Regionals race at a more measured pace than most could afford to do. For instance, one of those 3/4/5/6 runners is Kroll, a former Big Ten XC Champ who has been getting better through the season.However, it is easy to pick at what might be your weakest element of your detailed set of picks, and the one that you said was just a guess on your part.I also think that Syracuse is too deep and has been too consistent to finish outside of the top ten because their 4/5 guys are just not going to be scoring in the 100 level. But, again, you just used them as an illustration of the depth of the field, not as a weakness of the team, per se.
BigDaddyWooWoo wrote:
the weather is going to be pretty good, around high 40s with a small chance of rain at race time. Flotrack and letsrun state the course is firm and fast.
every year there are big big winners and big big losers, experience, tradition, and good coaching count for a lot, I will keep my Wisconsin pick!
to be honest, the dept is so deep teams like Syracuse & Olk State could finish out of the top 10.
BTW: the most interesting and most competitive will be the womens individual champion and top 10 finishers, really I don't have clue, I guessed the best I could.
Go Emma Bates....would be quite a story! but there are just to many good women to this year to BET on anyone winning!
youre nuts if you dont think kate avery is going to trash everyone 19:15 at holmdel is insane
number ln e wrote:
DINGUS wrote:They don't recruit XC guys, they recruit middle distance runners that can run pretty good at XC (ie: Prakel, Pepiot, Haney)
yeah. also like Levermore, Maton, Leingang, and Cheserek.
And look how much Leingang and Levermore have done for them so far.
Pepiot and Prakel scored outdoors for them, so that's a much bigger priority for them than trying to develop XC guys. Obviously they gave Ches everything he wanted. You don't pass up on a once in a generation talent. And with Maton they probably didn't have to do much to get him, seeing as his sister runs for them and he's in-state. But he's run a 4:02 mile so i'd say he's an all round talent. So what i'm saying is that Oregon Mostly goes after middle distance studs that can move up for xc.
Oregon goes after points. Wherever they can get them. To think anything other than that is retarded. Maton is a 5k/10k guy with okay wheels. That 4:02 is off of some serious strength. The idea that they go out and specifically target middle distance guys for XC (if that's what you are saying) is not right.
I'm saying they spend their scholarships on middle distance guys who are more likely to end up scoring in track and can move up to XC on the side, opposed to long distance guys. Someone like Pepiot is more useful to them because he scores points outdoors and can be the 4th or 5th man in XC opposed to let's say Syracuse's 5th man who probably won't be scoring outdoors or indoors, but may be better at XC than Pepiot.
Men's
1. Edward Cheserek
2. Maksim Korolev
3. Futusm Zeinaselassie
4. Patrick Tiernan
5. Eric Jenkins
6. Joe Rosa
7. Ben Saarel
8. Balke Theroux
9. Scott Fauble
10. Kirubel Erassa
Justin Beiber for the win. The scrawny kid can run (away from the cops that is).
DINGUS wrote:
number ln e wrote:yeah. also like Levermore, Maton, Leingang, and Cheserek.
And look how much Leingang and Levermore have done for them so far.
Pepiot and Prakel scored outdoors for them, so that's a much bigger priority for them than trying to develop XC guys. Obviously they gave Ches everything he wanted. You don't pass up on a once in a generation talent. And with Maton they probably didn't have to do much to get him, seeing as his sister runs for them and he's in-state. But he's run a 4:02 mile so i'd say he's an all round talent. So what i'm saying is that Oregon Mostly goes after middle distance studs that can move up for xc.
I wouldn't be surprised if Levermore is a walk on. When he was in hs, unlike Maton and Leingang, he really wasn't even one of the best in the country.
Men
1. Colorado
2. Syracuse
3. Oregon
4. Portland
5. NAU
6. Villanova
7. OK State
8. Stanford
9. Wisconsin
10. UCLA
1. Cheserek
2. Jenkins
3. Zienasellassie
4. Kebenei
5. Korolev
6. Theroux
7. Erassa
8. Rotich
9. Tiernan
10. Saarel
Women
1. MSU
2. Georgetown
3. Iowa State
1. Shelby Houlihan
DINGUS wrote:
Here are my final compiled men\'s projections. This took a while, for sure. But I\'m glad i\'m done with it, and I think it will do well against the final results.
http://xcrankings.blogspot.com/My biggest shockers are Portland jumping up into a podium spot and Iona landing in 9th. Iona has been ranked as high as #2 on other\'s boards, but i\'m not buying it.
What do you think? Your predictions?
Portland came through , you missed Stanford by a mile. Its ok , nobody is perfect but we appreciate the commentary and effort.
Thanks man! And i believe if Perry hadn't dropped out/ gotten injured and run where i thought he would, they could've gotten 2nd.
And also you can't predict things like Sam Wharton getting an All-American for Stanford. That's completely left field and impossible to predict based on previous stats. But I did pretty good in general with my top 10. OK state, Iona and Wisco did about what I expected. Awesome race to watch.