How close will Jenny come to breaking Mary Decker-Slaney's US 3000m record of 8:25.83?

The question is how close Shannon Rowbury will get to Slaney's American as I believe she stands a better chance of doing so.

But I don't believe Shannon will do it. She is not a front runner and I don't believe the field will set a fast pace. Jenny will run with Shannon but ultimately she will get dropped in the latter stages of the race.

Shannon: 8:30

Jenny: 8:35

I honestly would be shocked if Shannon Rowbury drops Jenny Simpson. In my opinion Jenny Simpson is the better runner in just about all aspects of racing and fitness than Shannon Rowbury.

The only time Rowbury can beat Simpson when they are both on there games is when the pace is hot enough to wear down a frontrunning Jenny Simpson. In my mind the fitness that it took to run the race Jenny Simpson did a few days ago compared with the fitness it took to run the race Shannon Rowbury did is far superior. When an athlete is able to run away from you, yet not quite hold on because they don't have someone to chase, shows that you are a stronger runner in terms of fitness.

The pace in this Friday's race will fluctuate between 8:20 and 8:30 for the early stages. It's certainly possible that Simpson will be the one to keep it honest at 2k or so when the pace starts to dawdle at which point Rowbury may be able to hang on enough to come back on Simpson near the end. I find it more likely that Simpson will end up dropping Rowbury, but under no circumstances do I see a scenario where Jenny Simpson gets dropped by Rowbury, unless you are talking about Simpson going out so aggressively that she dies and gets passed at the end by a more conservative Shannon Rowbury.

Mathematically speaking, if she ran 8:25.83 she would come as close as she could to breaking the record.

Jenny Simpson wrote:

In my mind the fitness that it took to run the race Jenny Simpson did a few days ago compared with the fitness it took to run the race Shannon Rowbury did is far superior.

Where do you come up with this nonsense?

What I stated is a matter of opinion. So it may not be correct.

If your asking how I can claim that it takes superior fitness to run the race that Jenny Simpson ran compared with Shannon Rowbery when their times were virtually identical then I will answer like this.

There times were virtually identical and for times sake there performances were virtually identical for that race. However, to use a bad example: It takes a fitter person to run a fartlek for a 4 min mile then it does for someone to race the same time evenly. The person who fartleked the raced didn't perform better, but they are most likely fitter. They likely would beat the other racer if both ran even. Clearly, this is an exaggerrated example and nothing like the situation between Rowbury and Simpson last week, but it's my opinion that Shannon Rowbury does not have the current fitness to have run the same race, using the same tactics, as Jenny Simpson last week.

Does that answer your question or did you have a different problem with my statement?

So, anyone else have opinions on who will come closer to the American Record, and what their time will be?

So far I may earn bragging rights over one person.

My prediction is 8:26 for Simpson and 8:29 for Rowbury, though I'd like to see Rowbury get there first.

It's all hypothetical dribble!

How are you related to Jenny Simpson?

Why do you want to claim bragging rights about her?

Are you obsessed?

Are you really Jenny Simpson wrote:

Where do you come up with this nonsense?

From the word-salad bar.

I would be very surprised to see her go under 8:30. Firstly because she doesn't seem to be as fit as she was earlier on in the year, but mainly because even if she is still in 3:57 shape, women's pacemakers for anything over 1500m are always terrible.

VIN Number wrote:

didn't rowbury have a pos A?

Maybe in your delusional dreams

she will miss the record by Mary's solid regimen of PEDs

At Doha the first five finishers were under the AR. Three of those are running in Brussels. There will be plenty of pace to get to an AR if Simpson and Rowbury can hang in there. But I think both have been training for 1500s not 3000s - I doubt if they will stay with the pace. Rowbury and Simpson will finish together at about 8:31 (Rowbury's PB). 5th/6th place. Simpson edges Rowbury once again.

Rowbury's goal for the season is to break barriers (pr's before Salazar of 2:00/4:00/8:31/15:00). She's run 3:59 and 14:48! She should be ready to destroy that 8:31 and certainly 8:29 at the very least. 8:27 might be a better bet. Simpson has not broken 15 before but 3k should be in her roundhouse, as she's not run a fast 800m either, and she was the American steeple recordholder. I'll predict 8:26 for Simpson.

It's realistic they'll both go under 8:33 as long as they show up to the race without any fatigue from the last week. Their 1500 times indicate that they can hang with the leaders of this race for the first 1500 if they want, so look for them to simply be trying to hang on in the final 1500. This leads to fast times if they don't fade terribly. I expect at least one of them to threaten the record.

3k is Rowbury's bread and butter. I think she has the edge on Simpson here. The race will be tactical since Cherono and Dibaba will each rely on their kick to win the Diamond. I'm guessing 8:30 wins. Rowbury 8:35 to Simpson's 8:37.

I'm all in.

Simpson 8:25.62

Rowbury 8:27.39

Simpson 8:33

Rowbury 8:34

I ran 3:58 prior to running 8:26, so I can seem them running right at 8:30