Do I have any chance of running a sub-3 marathon in 10 weeks time?

Don't worry! You seem to have good endurance from 10k up. Improvements will come and I do not think you are very far off. It is definitely possible off those prs.

What kind of course? What kind of training have you been doing? If the stars align you should be able to do it. Catch a warm day though and you could be in trouble.

reach3333 wrote:

What kind of course? What kind of training have you been doing? If the stars align you should be able to do it. Catch a warm day though and you could be in trouble.

It is a pretty flat big city marathon. Late October weather is usually in the high 40s to low 50s with a high chance of rain. I have been doing 45-50mpw for about 7 weeks including a long run,tempo and some long repeats like 5x3k and mile repeats.

I think you have a very solid shot. I was more like 1:24 when I first broke 3:00, but I had much worse decay from 10k to the half than you do (37:3x --> 1:24:3x PRs at the time).

I wouldn't normally think that a 1:26 guy was ready for 2:5x, and definitely not a 39-minute 10k runner, but really your line and training mileage look great for it!

Come back and let us know how the training and race go.

optimistic doubter wrote:

I set myself a target of running a sub-3 last November after running a 3.15. I burnt out after that marathon and it took me 8 months to back into my best shape. I have set 3 PR's in the last 2 months. They are 39.45/10k, 1.26.21/HM and 65.03/10M. I am running 50mpw at the moment. Do I have any chance of going sub-3 in late October.

Doubts usually don't come into my mind until the taper but they are already in my head at the minute.

If my experience is any indication, I think it's unlikely. When I ran the Chicago marathon in 2003, I had similar PRs to yours (40:26/ 1:26:00, both of which I had set in the run-up to the marathon.) On race day, I went out too fast, got through the first half in sub 1:31, but ended up fading badly in the second half to finish just under 3:08.

I ran a 1:26 three weeks before one of my target marathons last year and ended up with a 2:57. I'm geared more toward endurance though and am terrible over shorter distances which require more speed. I think that if you pace yourself correctly (ideally with a pace group) and you get good weather, you should hit sub-3. What distances are your long runs and at what paces do you run them?

I'd say the odds are against you, but prove me wrong. I ran a 1:24 HM and did a 39:15 10k relaxed tempo when I ran sub-3 and was running 65-70 mpw. Hard to know if you have a shot without knowing more about your workouts. Good luck.

El Graboid wrote:

I ran a 1:26 three weeks before one of my target marathons last year and ended up with a 2:57. I'm geared more toward endurance though and am terrible over shorter distances which require more speed. I think that if you pace yourself correctly (ideally with a pace group) and you get good weather, you should hit sub-3. What distances are your long runs and at what paces do you run them?

Wow, that's impressive.

My long runs are currently at 18-20 miles. I am running them at 80% of MP and the last 4-5 miles are at 90%-95%. My longest run will be 23 @ 80% and I will have 7 18+ mile runs done by raceday(that's the plan anyway).

good luck doubter wrote:

I'd say the odds are against you, but prove me wrong. I ran a 1:24 HM and did a 39:15 10k relaxed tempo when I ran sub-3 and was running 65-70 mpw. Hard to know if you have a shot without knowing more about your workouts. Good luck.

My workouts won't be a great indicator because the majority are done on an xc course.

I only have two road workouts done in the last month and they were:

5x1 mile with 1min recovery, (6.15)avg

8x800m with 2min recovery, (2.58, 2.56, 2.57, 2.55, 3.00, 2.57, 2.55, 2.57)

There are 2 possible outcomes:

1) You run sub-3

2) You run over 3 hours

2 possible outcomes = 1/2 chance = 50%

The burn out last time you tried worries me. How much time did you drop on each of the PRs?

optimistic doubter wrote:

good luck doubter wrote:

I'd say the odds are against you, but prove me wrong. I ran a 1:24 HM and did a 39:15 10k relaxed tempo when I ran sub-3 and was running 65-70 mpw. Hard to know if you have a shot without knowing more about your workouts. Good luck.

My workouts won't be a great indicator because the majority are done on an xc course.

I only have two road workouts done in the last month and they were:

5x1 mile with 1min recovery, (6.15)avg

8x800m with 2min recovery, (2.58, 2.56, 2.57, 2.55, 3.00, 2.57, 2.55, 2.57)

I predict you just miss it. I think your lack of running MP is going to bite you. On that little mileage you should be doing a good chunk of your long runs at MP. Your workouts are good indicators for running a faster pace at a shorter distance.

You have time to correct it though if you choose.

Prove me wrong though. Good luck.

Keep us in the loop on how it goes. We are very close in PRs:

10k 38:52

Half 1:26:22

Marathon 3:16:58

On low mileage peaking at 50. For me breaking 3 will require a LOT more miles, and a 1:24:low most likely if not more.

Personally on my next marathon I'd like sub 3:10, then 3:05. If you're feeling strong why not focus on sub 3:05 and qualify for Boston?

,z o9=b] 4 wrote:

The burn out last time you tried worries me. How much time did you drop on each of the PRs?

I made an awful lot of training mistakes last year. I done multiple long runs at marathon pace and a very heavy racing schedule. I was new to running and really stupid about training. Just to give you an idea of my idiocy. This was the worst part of my training in September.

Thu: 6x1mile with 2min recovery

Fri: 13k race

Sat: rest

Sun: half marathon

Mon: rest

Tue: 10m tempo

Wed: 6m

Thu: 6x1mile with 2min recovery

Fri: 4m race

Sat: rest

Sun: 20m at MP

I was so tired going into the taper that I only ran 4 times in the 3 week taper. I have got a coach now who has brought me back from the dead. My times fell back to a 47 min 10k by January of this year. I couldn't even run a 7 min mile without chronic pain.

My times going into the marathon last year were 40.50/10k, 1.28.42/HM.

I have to ask. Why in the h#ll would you do 6x1M the day before a race??? What was your reasoning behind that??

You have an outside shot I think if you go out in 1:30 and try to negative split the race.

My PR is 3:08 and here are my times

10K 37:36

HM 1:20

Full 3:08

I can't beat the leg cramps late in the race but am giving it one more go this fall.

i wish you the best but unless you are already running 60-70 mpw your chances are slim. don't worry you'll run sub 3 soon enough

I would say that your chances of a sub-3 marathon are pretty slim at this point. 3:05-3:10 is what your races indicate. But your trajectory of improvement indicates that sub 3 is probably an inevitability. It may take a few more training cycles to get there.

BigDuh wrote:

I have to ask. Why in the h#ll would you do 6x1M the day before a race??? What was your reasoning behind that??

I didn't know what I was doing and that is only a small piece in the grand scheme of stupidity.