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Jebron Lames
Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/15/2013 7:26PM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
When will someone break (have the ability to break) two hours? Well I'd say after doing some simple math it will happen between 6/25/2028 and 10/6/2051. Anyone else come up with something similar?

I just took all the data points from the world record in 7/24/1908 (2:55:18) up until Makau's 2:03:38 and did a simple regression and a power relationship is best fit. Bearing in mind that now more people are stepping up to the marathon, I took only the last 10 years worth of times and did the same thing. This is where the two dates came from. Obviously the 6/25/2028 date comes from the relationship based on the last 10 years.

The equations are:

1908 thru now: y=0.357x^-0.119 (R^2=.9696)
Last 10 years: y=0.53x^-0.172 (R^2=.9498)

where y = marathon time and x = date

I did this about a year ago and figured I'd post it since the talk has been on the forefront again recently. What do you think?
Jebron Lames
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/15/2013 7:28PM - in reply to Jebron Lames Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
* edit it should say y=.3057x^-0.119
Jon Ulm
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/15/2013 7:58PM - in reply to Jebron Lames Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
well that may be if the marathon world records happened as random acts of luck. People can't go that fast for that long. Even today, with people under 2:05 many say it is drug aided. The marathon world record has to someday reach its limit. It is probably pretty close to that now. Getting 3 1/2 minutes off a marathon when you're down around 2:04 is extremely difficult.

conclusion: it probably will never happen.
crazy raisin
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/15/2013 8:10PM - in reply to Jebron Lames Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I agree with OP, it could happen in that timeframe. Right now, maybe runners on a good day could maybe go 2:02. Improved technology, training, and really good surfaces to run on could bring it down another two minutes over the next couple generations of runners.
mo'pak
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/15/2013 9:18PM - in reply to crazy raisin Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Big city marathons will get sick of paying big dollars to have a group of East Africans come along and dominate the front of their races. Once this happens funding for the "programs" will dry up and then the best marathoners will be back running 2.06. Check out how many guys are running sub 26.20 for 10000m on the track these days.
bangalangadanga
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/15/2013 9:23PM - in reply to Jon Ulm Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Judging on the manner in which the marathon is raced these days, I'm beginning to think there is a significant physiological distinction between a 120 minute race effort and a 135 minute race effort.
Bad Wigins
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 2:18AM - in reply to Jebron Lames Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
what do you mean, y = marathon time and x = date? Explain what units you're using. For example

.53 (2002)^-.172 = .143

makes no sense.
Message board cynic wrote....
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 2:57AM - in reply to Jebron Lames Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Jebron Lames wrote:

When will someone break (have the ability to break) two hours? Well I'd say after doping


Thisio.
MrGambinus
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 3:49AM - in reply to Message board cynic wrote.... Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Well, if we believe the sayings that guys like Mosop and Makau are clean (remember, they are 203 runners), why shouldnt it be possible to run sub 2 in full saucemode?

Really, no EPO or stuff on a 2:03 guy means that sub 2 is possible RIGHT NOW. We just need to wait for the first lab rat to make it happen like the cyclist in the 90s and their crazy power outputs or the incredible things done by East-German rats in the past.

Or, we reverse that and say that 2:02 or 2:03 is the maximum possible but that indicates something aswell...
ukathleticscoach
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 4:07AM - in reply to Jebron Lames Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
' 6/25/2028 and 10/6/2051'

That's really narrowed it down
well..
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 4:28AM - in reply to mo'pak Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

mo'pak wrote:

Big city marathons will get sick of paying big dollars to have a group of East Africans come along and dominate the front of their races. Once this happens funding for the "programs" will dry up and then the best marathoners will be back running 2.06. Check out how many guys are running sub 26.20 for 10000m on the track these days.

Only one guy in history has run sub 26,20 - once.
mo'pak
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 5:55AM - in reply to well.. Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Yes, that's my point!
Logic suggested that somebody would be running sub 26.10 by now, then we'd be talking about when will 26 be broken.
Of course now no one breaks 26.40.
Jebron Lames
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 7:07AM - in reply to Bad Wigins Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Bad Wigins wrote:

what do you mean, y = marathon time and x = date? Explain what units you're using. For example

.53 (2002)^-.172 = .143

makes no sense.


It does if u use the date in that format. In MS excel it converts the date to a # of days I think is the unit based on starting at 1/1/1900 or whatever it is, you also have to convert your answer (y) to hh:mm:ss from days.

Definitely doesn't narrow it down precisely obviously since its just looking at #s over time and not considering drugs etc... But if technology and drugs are what cause the drop in times coupled with popularity then it inherently trends that too up until the current record... Whether or not that changes will obv cause the latter half of the curves to shift. Definitely not an end all be all, I was just curious one day and wanted to see the regression.

This analysis would be interesting to do for other events but as some of you mentioned some of those lack popularity and/or with that desire to set records like the marathon. Aka the importance in track always seems to be preparation to run a championship style tactical run and in the marathon there are tactics but you just want to be faster than anyone else and its definitely a different kind of fatigue/bonk you hit when you break...
2chaynz
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 7:24AM - in reply to Jebron Lames Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
around 2035 give or take a few years is when we will see a close to 2hr marathon

by a freakish Kenyan/Ethiopian whos probably doped up.

I doubt it will be sub 2 though, maybe sub 2:02 or 2:01

after that the record will not go down by any significant margin
nedster
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 7:35AM - in reply to 2chaynz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I don't believe it will be in my lifetime (and I'm 65 now).
Canova>God
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 8:28AM - in reply to Jebron Lames Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
The guy who does it will need sub 26:00 ability on the track which I think will be easier than going sub 2 hours in the marathon. I do not know if people understand what a sub 2 entails. This guy would have to be talented enough to significantly destroy all distance running world records. I am talking about a guy that could almost lap the entire Olympic 10k field. He would probably be running low 57s in the half and would be such a freak that everyone would accuse him of doping. I do not think anyone could do this off of current training so training would have to improve greatly in the future. I am not saying it is impossible but don't hold your breath.
Balian
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 9:20AM - in reply to Jebron Lames Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Simple numbers: 4:34 a mile for 26.2 miles.

How far has gone at that pace over any distance?

If races want to level he playing field, simply stop paying appearance money and providing accommodations for any runners.

Prize money is okay. Keeps racing a meritocracy.

The African runners will stop showing up in droves.
Randy Oldman
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 9:31AM - in reply to Balian Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Can you do some regression analysis to see how many past records fit in to that trend?

Derek Clayton, Sergei Popov, Jim Peters and Abebe Bikila all smashed the existing men's world best by around 2 minutes, Paul by 3.5 minutes in 2 years. Clearly the world record does not confirm to long-term trends.
////????////
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 9:46AM - in reply to Balian Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Balian wrote:

Simple numbers: 4:34 a mile for 26.2 miles.

How far has gone at that pace over any distance?

If races want to level he playing field, simply stop paying appearance money and providing accommodations for any runners.

Prize money is okay. Keeps racing a meritocracy.

The African runners will stop showing up in droves.




The irony in this comment is that this isn't going to touch east africa, but would easily kill any westernized distance running effort for good.
Mitchellmac2
RE: Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math? 1/16/2013 9:54AM - in reply to Jebron Lames Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
You people are ignorant to think that it will never happen! Do you know how many people said that the 4 minute barrier for the mile would never be broken??? How many people said that women couldn't run a marathon????
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