Sub 2 hour Marathon - Do the Math?

* edit it should say y=.3057x^-0.119

well that may be if the marathon world records happened as random acts of luck. People can't go that fast for that long. Even today, with people under 2:05 many say it is drug aided. The marathon world record has to someday reach its limit. It is probably pretty close to that now. Getting 3 1/2 minutes off a marathon when you're down around 2:04 is extremely difficult.

conclusion: it probably will never happen.

I agree with OP, it could happen in that timeframe. Right now, maybe runners on a good day could maybe go 2:02. Improved technology, training, and really good surfaces to run on could bring it down another two minutes over the next couple generations of runners.

Big city marathons will get sick of paying big dollars to have a group of East Africans come along and dominate the front of their races. Once this happens funding for the "programs" will dry up and then the best marathoners will be back running 2.06. Check out how many guys are running sub 26.20 for 10000m on the track these days.

Judging on the manner in which the marathon is raced these days, I'm beginning to think there is a significant physiological distinction between a 120 minute race effort and a 135 minute race effort.

what do you mean, y = marathon time and x = date? Explain what units you're using. For example

.53 (2002)^-.172 = .143

makes no sense.

Jebron Lames wrote:

When will someone break (have the ability to break) two hours? Well I'd say after doping

Thisio.

Well, if we believe the sayings that guys like Mosop and Makau are clean (remember, they are 203 runners), why shouldnt it be possible to run sub 2 in full saucemode?

Really, no EPO or stuff on a 2:03 guy means that sub 2 is possible RIGHT NOW. We just need to wait for the first lab rat to make it happen like the cyclist in the 90s and their crazy power outputs or the incredible things done by East-German rats in the past.

Or, we reverse that and say that 2:02 or 2:03 is the maximum possible but that indicates something aswell...

' 6/25/2028 and 10/6/2051'

That's really narrowed it down

mo'pak wrote:

Big city marathons will get sick of paying big dollars to have a group of East Africans come along and dominate the front of their races. Once this happens funding for the "programs" will dry up and then the best marathoners will be back running 2.06. Check out how many guys are running sub 26.20 for 10000m on the track these days.

Only one guy in history has run sub 26,20 - once.

Yes, that's my point!

Logic suggested that somebody would be running sub 26.10 by now, then we'd be talking about when will 26 be broken.

Of course now no one breaks 26.40.

Bad Wigins wrote:

what do you mean, y = marathon time and x = date? Explain what units you're using. For example

.53 (2002)^-.172 = .143

makes no sense.

It does if u use the date in that format. In MS excel it converts the date to a # of days I think is the unit based on starting at 1/1/1900 or whatever it is, you also have to convert your answer (y) to hh:mm:ss from days.

Definitely doesn't narrow it down precisely obviously since its just looking at #s over time and not considering drugs etc... But if technology and drugs are what cause the drop in times coupled with popularity then it inherently trends that too up until the current record... Whether or not that changes will obv cause the latter half of the curves to shift. Definitely not an end all be all, I was just curious one day and wanted to see the regression.

This analysis would be interesting to do for other events but as some of you mentioned some of those lack popularity and/or with that desire to set records like the marathon. Aka the importance in track always seems to be preparation to run a championship style tactical run and in the marathon there are tactics but you just want to be faster than anyone else and its definitely a different kind of fatigue/bonk you hit when you break...

around 2035 give or take a few years is when we will see a close to 2hr marathon

by a freakish Kenyan/Ethiopian whos probably doped up.

I doubt it will be sub 2 though, maybe sub 2:02 or 2:01

after that the record will not go down by any significant margin

I don't believe it will be in my lifetime (and I'm 65 now).

The guy who does it will need sub 26:00 ability on the track which I think will be easier than going sub 2 hours in the marathon. I do not know if people understand what a sub 2 entails. This guy would have to be talented enough to significantly destroy all distance running world records. I am talking about a guy that could almost lap the entire Olympic 10k field. He would probably be running low 57s in the half and would be such a freak that everyone would accuse him of doping. I do not think anyone could do this off of current training so training would have to improve greatly in the future. I am not saying it is impossible but don't hold your breath.

Simple numbers: 4:34 a mile for 26.2 miles.

How far has gone at that pace over any distance?

If races want to level he playing field, simply stop paying appearance money and providing accommodations for any runners.

Prize money is okay. Keeps racing a meritocracy.

The African runners will stop showing up in droves.

Can you do some regression analysis to see how many past records fit in to that trend?

Derek Clayton, Sergei Popov, Jim Peters and Abebe Bikila all smashed the existing men's world best by around 2 minutes, Paul by 3.5 minutes in 2 years. Clearly the world record does not confirm to long-term trends.

Balian wrote:

Simple numbers: 4:34 a mile for 26.2 miles.

How far has gone at that pace over any distance?

If races want to level he playing field, simply stop paying appearance money and providing accommodations for any runners.

Prize money is okay. Keeps racing a meritocracy.

The African runners will stop showing up in droves.

The irony in this comment is that this isn't going to touch east africa, but would easily kill any westernized distance running effort for good.

You people are ignorant to think that it will never happen! Do you know how many people said that the 4 minute barrier for the mile would never be broken??? How many people said that women couldn't run a marathon????