rojo
co-founder
Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/18/2012 6:50PM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
http://www1.skysports.com/athletics/news/12040/8338831/Sebastian-Coe-tips-800-metre-star-Andrew-Osagie-for-success-at-2013-World-Championships

I liked the article and am going to feature it on Wednesday's homepage but I don't really agree with the beating Rudisha part.

I guess if I was Osiage and I had run 1:43.8 I might think I could beat a 1:40.9 guy if he fell. It's also possible to beat a front-runner who goes out hard and really ties up, but how do you beat a guy who is nearly 3 seconds better than you?

At a college conference meet, not many 1:54 guys are expecting to beat a 1:51 guy.

Your thoughts?
why not
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/18/2012 6:57PM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Everything can't be thought of in a rational manner.

Sure on paper he's three seconds back, and he will train as a 143 guy--basing his workouts off of that and progressing off of that. The thing is, even if it's a pipe dream, why not think that?

Rationality only goes so far. Sometimes you've got to think a little crazy or you will never get there.
Reasonable Guy
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/18/2012 7:29PM - in reply to why not Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
He's a 1:43 guy now and Rudishka ia a 1:40 guy now, but that can change.
W. Mitty
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/18/2012 7:30PM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
There's a difference between believing and knowing, a different time and place for each. If you don't believe you can win, why train and compete? It's good to have lots of hope, even a little self-delusion when you train. And you why not be fearless during the race? Push hard enough and maybe you'll achieve a breakthrough; if you die, so what? Nobody expected you to win, so there's nothing to lose.

On the other hand, the cold hard fact at race time is that when runners toe the line, the winner is usually the one who knows (not hopes) he'll win.
W. Mitty
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/18/2012 7:36PM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Plus Coe knows whereof he speaks. How unbeatable was he in the 1980 Olympics 800m?
ralphfriedgen
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/18/2012 7:36PM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Hopes that he believes he can beat...

Makes sense that Lord Coe would want Osagie feel like he had a legitimate chance to win. Hard to toe the starting line accepting that you will lose.
Running on Empathy
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/18/2012 9:29PM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I agree with Coe's sentiments, but I'd also like to see what Osagie can do in a fast-paced mile.
grizz
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/18/2012 10:12PM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

rojo wrote:
It's also possible to beat a front-runner who goes out hard and really ties up, but how do you beat a guy who is nearly 3 seconds better than you?



Steve Ovett's PR in the 800 was about 2 seconds slower than Coe's in the Moscow Olympics. PR's don't tell the full story. How is it that you were a college coach and don't know that?


(For the sake of making sure I don't seem like I'm picking on Coe, when he ran his first mile WR in the Golden Mile, going into the race, he had the slowest PR in the field on paper- so he wasn't one to sweat guys with faster PRs either!)
tooth fairy
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/18/2012 10:49PM - in reply to grizz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
It is Osagie's (and I guess Coe's) job to believe as it Nick Symmonds, Mohammad Aman, and that kid from Botswana.

We'll see how far believing goes the morning of the 25th...
ventolin^3
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/19/2012 2:41AM - in reply to grizz Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
'80 games & ovett aren't great comparison

ovett ran 1'44.0 in '78 in a crazy race, beating coe who went off in 49.5

more sensible pacing of say 50.0 to 50.5 & i think ovett couda gone mid-1'43

he then basically gave up 800 running until moscow where he presumably was in as good/better shape ( big 1500wr after games )

i think he was low-1'43 in moscow & coe slightly slower than '79 at maybe mid-1'42

in the end, the gap between them may have been "only" 3/4s in moscow which is close enough for the upset which happened

the current gap between rudy & ossie in flat out races is nearer 3s, which doesn't favour any upset in the near future...
wtfunny
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/19/2012 2:55AM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
well .. the guy who ran 6th, and 1:43.20, beat Rudisha just a few weeks later. Doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest that the guy 2 places behind Aman, and .5secs back, could possibly do the same a year later.

Sports can be funny some times.

I think it's much better advice from Coe to suggest to Osagie that he should believe he can beat Rudisha, rather than the opposite ..ymmv.
A Duck
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/19/2012 7:06AM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

rojo wrote:

http://www1.skysports.com/athletics/news/12040/8338831/Sebastian-Coe-tips-800-metre-star-Andrew-Osagie-for-success-at-2013-World-Championships

I liked the article and am going to feature it on Wednesday's homepage but I don't really agree with the beating Rudisha part.

I guess if I was Osiage and I had run 1:43.8 I might think I could beat a 1:40.9 guy if he fell. It's also possible to beat a front-runner who goes out hard and really ties up, but how do you beat a guy who is nearly 3 seconds better than you?

At a college conference meet, not many 1:54 guys are expecting to beat a 1:51 guy.

Your thoughts?



I think Coe's point was that say...like Nick Symmond's said he never thought his body could ever run under 1:43...and yet he did.

The college analogy is not apt. The training and ability level are diff. Look at the leap Symmonds made.
Dennis Reynolds
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/19/2012 7:35AM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

rojo wrote:

http://www1.skysports.com/athletics/news/12040/8338831/Sebastian-Coe-tips-800-metre-star-Andrew-Osagie-for-success-at-2013-World-Championships

I liked the article and am going to feature it on Wednesday's homepage but I don't really agree with the beating Rudisha part.

I guess if I was Osiage and I had run 1:43.8 I might think I could beat a 1:40.9 guy if he fell. It's also possible to beat a front-runner who goes out hard and really ties up, but how do you beat a guy who is nearly 3 seconds better than you?

At a college conference meet, not many 1:54 guys are expecting to beat a 1:51 guy.

Your thoughts?


You are seriously a college coach?
Mutai in Training
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/19/2012 11:57AM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
It wasn't that long ago that Rudisha's PR was 1:43.x
rojo
co-founder
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/19/2012 11:25PM - in reply to Mutai in Training Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Mutai in Training wrote:

It wasn't that long ago that Rudisha's PR was 1:43.x


Rudisha's PR was 1:43 in 2008 when he was 20.

Osiage isn't that old. He's only 24 years old and 305 days. That's the good news. The bad news is - so is Rudisha - 24 years and 3 days.
Old Runner
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/19/2012 11:47PM - in reply to rojo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I'm not going to get into the minutiae on who can or can't run with another or why or all that. However, bottom line, if he doesn't believe he can compete with Rudisha, he won't. Plain and simple! It isn't likely to expect that any athlete, including Rudisha, can run at the top of their potential at the right time all the time. If Rudisha is sick, goes out too fast, or what ever, the door is open. If Osagie "Believes" he can't beat Rudisha, he certainly won't.
Once an Expert
RE: Seb Coe: ""I really hope that Andrew Osagie believes he can beat David Rudisha." 12/25/2012 10:43AM - in reply to Old Runner Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Doesn't Seb realize that Osagie is 10 months older than Rudisha?