Rupp vs. Chelanga Strategy

The most loneliest day of my life......

And if you [Chelanga] go, I [Rupp] wanna go with you

And if you die, I wanna die with you

_______

Ah, I see the subtlety of you post.

"your"

I(cheleanga) want you(rupp) to be left behind those empty walls. lol.

SOAD and Serj are the songs that I sing in my head while I'm running lol

Trust in my self righteous suicide

Can't you see their bodies burning.

Desolate and full of yearning.

Dieing of anticipation

Choking from intoxication.

Chelanga will lose if Rupp is on his shoulder at 5k/6k.

Hey man look at me [Rupp]ing out!

I'm on [Chelanga's shoulder]

with [German] and [Puskedra]

They take me away from...

the strangest [pack]...

Sweet [German] and [Puskedra]...

Oh, well this is just fine! No, be my guest and hijack the thread according to your musical predilections.

But while we're at it . . .

Well you think that you (GR) can take me (SC) on

You must be crazy

There ain't a single thing you've done

Is gonna phase me

Oh, but if you want to have a go

I just want to let you know

Yeah,

Get off my back and into my game

Get out of my way and out of my brain

Get outta my face or give it your best shot

I think it's time you better face the fact

Get off my back

Overall POD

You guys are the worst copy cats ever :(

Then let's get it back on track. How much time should Ruppadupp give away to Chelangadanga in the first mile?

I think you've provided a solid analysis, dnixon. Rupp should probably give Chelanga 10 seconds (maybe even 15) if Chelanga follows his pre-nat strategy. If he starts off more conservatively, Rupp still may want to spot him 5 or 10 seconds before making his move in the last half of the race. Is it possible that Chelanga will refuse to lead and force Rupp or even someone else to do the work in the early stages? I honestly don't know much about Chelanga's running career. Has he employed a sit-and-kick strategy before or is he pretty much always a front runner?

Now THAT would be interesting: Chelanga sitting back, drafting off Rupp and conserving energy for, say, 6k or so — where the course has long, gradual climbs — before putting in a hard surge to the finish.

But I don't think he'll do it. He's been a front-runner all season, and he probably thinks (as he rightly should) that he can run a FASTER pace for the full 10K than he did at Pre Nats for 8K. If the weather cooperates, I'm predicting between 28:00 and 28:30 for him.

The challenge for Rupp is that he'll be in no-man's land if he runs true to form. I bet that somewhere between 4-5K he'll be running completely alone, ahead of the main pack but behind Chelanga, with no one to draft off.

If GR tries to match SC in the first few K's, the latter will win. That's my pick. And I'm also picking Fernandez for 3rd. His 23:34 in the open race at Pre Nats was the fastest of the freshman and was nothing more than a solid tempo run. One of Fernandez's great strengths is impeccable pacing. The dude is a metronome. He showed that last spring, he showed it at Pre-Nats, and he showed it in his conference win. But he's also a metronome with a solid kick.

If Rupp tries to match Chelanga from the start, then I'm picking the freshman for 2nd. He's a real threat to take down a fading Rupp.

Chelanga will go out in 4:20. Rupp won't go with him and he'll never see chelanga again. He will win by about 20-30 seconds.

andrew weating will take off in a 1:44 half mile and then get in chelanga's way bumping him for as long as he can. Hopefully this will throw chelanga off and allow rupp to conquer!

dnixon wrote:

But I don't think he'll do it. He's been a front-runner all season, and he probably thinks (as he rightly should) that he can run a FASTER pace for the full 10K than he did at Pre Nats for 8K. If the weather cooperates, I'm predicting between 28:00 and 28:30 for him.

uhhh 28:00?? 22:24 pace for 8k + an addition 2k? Are you stupid? That would be like 15 seconds faster than his track pr

In fine Let\'s Run tradition, you find it easier to insult someone you disagree with rather than just state your disagreement. What\'s with you emotionally regressed folks?

His track PR means little. Read his interviews about the kind of training he did over the summer. He says he\'s finally gotten serious and has committed to working hard. His volume and intensity are way beyond what they were when he set his track PR. He talks about being lazy, inconsistent and uncommitted in the past.

I happen to think the guy is a beast right now. And I happen to think that with sharpening work, a good taper, good weather (as I stated before), and better comp (in the person of Rupp), that he\'s capable of running faster through 8k than he did at Pre Nats and STILL maintaining pace.

When I say I\'m predicting between 28:00 and 28:30 for him, that\'s what I mean. I think 28:15ish is within his reach. Fast but not unthinkable. That\'s 22:36 8k pace. Yes, 22:36 pace.

WHO CARES, Youth Wonder German Fernandez will beat them both!