2024 Chicago Marathon Men: Can Daniel Ebenyo Win the Chicago in His Debut? Plus, How Fast Will Americans Zach Panning & CJ Albertson Run?

By Jonathan Gault

October 10, 2024

2024 Bank of America Chicago Marathon

The 2024 Bank of America Chicago Marathon is on Sunday, and we’ve already previewed the women’s race in great detail, examining the seven women who could win the race and taking a deep dive into a stellar American field headlined by Keira D’Amato, Betsy Saina, Sara Hall, and Emma Bates. Now it’s time to preview the men’s race. *Full list of entries

But before we do that, a reminder that we’ll be doing a live show from Chicago on Friday at 2 p.m. ET where Robert Johnson will give a boots-on-the-ground report and share what he learned from the pre-race press conference. If you can’t catch it live, join the Supporters Club to get it as a podcast.

In terms of potential winners, there are seven men in the 2024 Chicago field (full field here) who have broken 2:06. Plus one very talented debutant who has a legitimate shot to win on Sunday as well. I’ll get to him in a minute.

First, let’s run through the contenders who have run a marathon. We’ll end this article by taking a quick look CJ Albertson and Zach Panning, who are the top Americans in the field.

Bib # / Name / Country / PB
2 Birhanu Legese ETH 2:02:48 (Berlin, 2019)
3 Amos Kipruto KEN 2:03:13 (Tokyo, 2022)
4 Vincent Ngetich KEN 2:03:13 (Berlin, 2023)
5 Dawit Wolde ETH 2:03:48 (Valencia, 2023)
6 Amdework Walelegn ETH 2:04:50 (Rotterdam, 2024)
7 John Korir KEN 2:05:01 (Chicago, 2022)
8 Huseydin Mohamed Esa ETH 2:05:05 (Amsterdam, 2022)

We list the seven proven marathoners below in terms of most likely to least likely to win.

#1 Vincent Ngetich – Kenya – 25 years old – 2:03:13 pb (Berlin, 2023)

Ngetich has run two marathons in his career and both went well — a 2:03:13 debut in Berlin last fall, where Eliud Kipchoge was the only man to beat him, and a 2:04:18 for 3rd in Tokyo this year. At 25, he’s one of the younger guys in the elite field and still has room to grow.

Why we rank him #1: He’s young and has never run a bad marathon.

#2 Amos Kipruto – Kenya – 30 years old – 2:03:13 pb (Tokyo, 2022)

Kipruto was on fire in 2022 as he ran 2:03:13 pb in Tokyo for second and then won an October edition of the London marathon in 2:04:39. Since then he hasn’t been as good as he dropped out of London in 2023 and then was 7th in Berlin, albeit in a respectable 2:04:49. His only race this year appears to be a 28:37 road 10k in Gabon in June.

Kipruto, who trains alongside two-time Boston champ Evans Chebet and Olympic bronze medalist Benson Kipruto in Kapsabet, told Olympics.com that he is now healthy and is hoping to run a pb in Chicago, where he will be running in honor of the late Kelvin Kiptum (Kiptum set the world record in Chicago last year; Kipruto was a pallbearer at his funeral). If Kipruto is indeed back to his best, he’s one of the favorites on Sunday.

#3 Mohamed Esa – Ethiopia – 24 years old – 2:05:05 pb (Amsterdam, 2022)

Esa has run four marathons in his career and has yet to run faster than the 2:05:05 he ran in his debut in Amsterdam in October 2022. But he is coming off his best race of his career, running 2:06:58 in Boston in April, where he was second only behind 2:01 man Sisay Lemma.

#4 Birhanu Legese – Ethiopia – 30 years old – 2:02:48 pb (Berlin, 2019)

Embed from Getty Images

Only five men have run a marathon faster than Legese, a two-time Tokyo winner who clocked his pb of 2:02:48 in Berlin in 2019. But Legese has not finished in the top four of a World Marathon Major in more than four years, though he did run 2:05:16 to finish 3rd in Rotterdam in April. Legese was a late add to this field after running 60:27 for 3rd at the Antrim Coast Half in August (the winner there ran 59:46), so he must feel he’s in pretty good shape right now. But is he ready to step up and start winning majors again?

#5 Amdework Walelegn – Ethiopia – 25 years old – 2:04:50 pb (Rotterdam, 2024)

Walelegn, the 2020 World Half bronze medalist, has run pbs in his last three marathons: 1st 2022 Seoul (2:06:59), 1st 2023 Seoul (2:05:27 pb), 2nd 2024 Rotterdam (2:04:50). Now he is stepping up to the big leagues for his WMM debut.

#6 Dawit Wolde – Ethiopia – 33 years old – 2:03:48 pb (Valencia, 2023)

While it has become common on the women’s side for former middle-distance runners to develop into marathon stars, there aren’t as many athletes doing it on the men’s side. Wolde may be the closest thing we have right now. A 1:47/3:33 man and a 2016 Olympic semifinalist in the 1500, Wolde has gone from 2:06 to 2:04 to 2:03 in the last five years, running his pb in Valencia in December. The bad news is that only placed him 4rd (he also was 4th in Rotterdam and 17th in Chicago). He hasn’t raced much this year but did clock 26:55 for 10k on the roads in Madrid in June.

#7 John Korir – Kenya – 27 years old – 2:05:01 pb (Chicago, 2022)

Korir, the younger brother of former Louisville star and Boston Marathon champ Wesley Korir, often runs well in Chicago, finishing 3rd in 2022 and 4th in 2023, but has yet to break 2:05 in nine career marathons.

The Total Stud Making His Debut

Daniel Ebenyo – Kenya – 29 years old – debut

Embed from Getty Images

No man has won Chicago in his debut since Evans Rutto in 2003, but Ebenyo checks all the boxes of what you’d want to see in a debut winner.

Fast track times? He’s run 7:37/12:54/26:57.

Major championship hardware? He earned silver at Worlds in the 10,000 last year and at the World Half a month later.

Half marathon success? He has a pb of 59:04 and has won half marathons in Istanbul, New Delhi, and Berlin over the last two years.

Ebenyo missed out on the Kenyan Olympic team after falling in their 10,000m trials at the Pre Classic in May, but he’s been in good form on the roads this summer (3rd at the BAA 10K, 2nd at Peachtree). You never know how things will go in a marathon, and 29 is on the later side for a Kenyan to be making his debut. But Ebenyo is one of the most talented guys in the field and should be right up there with the leaders on Sunday. He may end up being our pick to win.

The Americans

There are nine Americans in the field that have run between 2:09 and 2:11 (full field here), including Brian Shrader (2:09:46 pb), Reed Fischer (2:10:34 pb, 9th Olympic Trials), Nathan Martin (2:10:45 pb, 7th Olympic Trials), and 2016 Olympian in the 10,000 Shadrack Kipchirchir (2:13:02 pb). But there are two Americans who I believe are capable of breaking out and running 2:07 on the right day, and I’ve listed them below. I expect one of the two to finish as top American on Sunday, though it’s possible someone could sneak by them in the final miles if they send it too hard and wind up blowing up.

Zach Panning – USA – 29 years old – 2:09:28 pb (Chicago, 2022)

Panning led much of the US Olympic Marathon Trials in February (Kevin Morris photo)

Panning’s pb is 2:09:28 from Chicago two years ago, a race in which he finished as the #2 American but was overshadowed by Conner Mantz and his 2:08:16 debut. Panning has improved a bunch since then but his pb hasn’t budged because he ran two hot-weather marathons — the 2023 Worlds in Budapest (12th in 2:11:21) and this year’s Olympic Trials in Orlando (6th in 2:10:50).

One of my hopes post-Trials was that Panning would get in a fast race this fall to test his limits. Panning looked incredible for long stretches in Orlando, running 2:06:17 pace for miles 5 through 20 after running a series of killer workouts in his buildup. And on Sunday, Panning will have two advantages that he did not have in Orlando: pacers and good weather. The question is, how aggressive does he choose to be and can he hold on for 26.2 miles this time and not just 20?

CJ Albertson – USA – 31 years old – 2:09:53 pb (Boston, 2024)

More than three years after running a 2:09 marathon on a treadmill, Albertson finally did it for real in Boston in April, running 2:09:53 to finish as the top American in 7th. That came just two months after he finished 5th at the Olympic Trials, closing like a maniac over the final miles and just missing the team in 5th place.

CJ Albertson Joins the Sub 2:10 Club (Kevin Morris photo)

Albertson joined the sub-2:10 club in Boston in April (Kevin Morris photo)

Albertson, who is also running the NYC Marathon this fall just three weeks after Chicago, is a Strava legend and his most impressive workout during this build was running 24 miles at 4:56/mile pace on September 29 — which is 2:09:31 marathon pace.

Some of Albertson’s followers were understandably excited in the comment section, but Albertson will not necessarily run any faster than that on Sunday — he has consistently shown he is able to run close to his max effort in training and recover quickly from those efforts. Albertson pumped the brakes when one follower, Nathan Pennington, suggested he could run 2:06 in Chicago.

“A marathon is typically going to be ~300m long (55s) by your watch (26.38) so watch pace needs to be 4:48 to run ~2:06:45,” Albertson wrote. “The difference between 4:56 -> 4:48 for a runner like me is bigger than you’d think. Also, the field isn’t super deep (not like last year where they essentially had a 2nd pace group), and front pack will likely run much faster, so realistically I’ll run a ton of miles alone in much windier weather than today. 2:06 is somewhat within the realm of possibility if a group forms there, but I’d give it less than 4%. Ultimately though, it’s a race, and you just beat as many people as possible.”

The race dynamics portion of the equation is key. Most of the Africans will likely be going out faster than 2:06/2:07 pace. If that is what Albertson is targeting, his best bet is to work with Panning and the Japanese contingent of Kyohei Hosoya (2:06:35 pb), Toshiki Sadakata (2:07:05 pb), and Tatsuya Maruyama (2:07:50 pb).

Who will be the top American man in Chicago?

Your vote has been counted. Thank you!

How fast will the top American run in Chicago?