And The Winner Of The 2024 Chicago Marathon Women’s Race Will Be….
By Robert Johnson
The 2024 Bank of America Chicago Marathon is almost here and it looks to be spectacular. The weather looks wonderful and the fields are full of quality.
My colleague Jonathan Gault has done an excellent job of breaking down the LOADED American women’s field in Chicago. If you haven’t read that, do so now:
LRC American stars Keira D’Amato, Betsy Saina, Sara Hall, and Emma Bates lead US charge for Sunday’s Chicago Marathon With such a strong core of US women, will an American record attempt be on the cards?
But since an American woman has only won Chicago once in the last 28 editions of the race and an American man has only won it once in the last 20, it’s safe to say none of those women will be your race winner.
So, who wins on Sunday? We’ll try to tell you that at LetsRun.com, starting with this article. Below, we break down the elite women’s field based on the pros’ past accomplishments. On Friday morning, we’ll get a chance to talk to many of them to see how their buildup has gone for this particular race. Then we’ll give you an official prediction.
We’ll be doing a live show from Chicago on Friday at 2 p.m. ET where we share what we learned at the press conference. If you can’t catch it live, join the Supporters Club to get it as a podcast.
Chicago boasts seven women who have run under 2:19 in the marathon. One of these women is almost certainly going to be your winner.
Bib / Name / Country / PB
101 Ruth Chepngetich KEN 2:14:18 (Chicago, 2022)
102 Sutume Asefa Kebede ETH 2:15:55 (Tokyo, 2024)
103 Joyciline Jepkosgei KEN 2:16:24 (London, 2024)
104 Degitu Azimeraw ETH 2:17:58 (London, 2021)
105 Ashete Bekere Dido ETH 2:17:58 (Tokyo, 2022)
106 Hiwot Gebrekidan ETH 2:17:59 (Valencia, 2023)
107 Irine Cheptai KEN 2:18:22 (Hamburg, 2024)
The top three entrants are all heavy hitters, having all run under 2:16:30. Let’s call them the Big 3. One of them is most likely your champion. Let’s start at the top.
The Big 3
Ruth Chepngetich – Kenya – 30 years old – 2:14:18 pb (Chicago, 2022)
© 2022 Bank of America Chicago Marathon/Kevin Morris
Why Chepngetich could win: Chepngetich is consistently one of the world’s best marathoners and she has run extremely well in Chicago in the past. She won in 2021 (albeit in just 2:22:31 after blowing up) and 2022 (2:14:18, just 14 seconds away from the world record at the time) before finishing 2nd last year in a quick 2:15:37. When she races a major marathon other than the Olympics or Worlds, she almost always finishes in top 3, most often winning. She’s finished 12 marathons in her life and won eight of them, finished second in two of them, and third in one of them.
Why Chepngetich might not win: In London in April, Chepngetich had her first career non-top-3 finish in a marathon as she was just 9th in 2:24:36 and lost track of the leaders right at 20k. No one bats 100% in the marathon, so that result doesn’t scare me too much, particularly since she won the Buenos Aires Half at the end of August in 65:58 — 20 seconds faster than what she ran in 2023.
At the press event on Friday, I’ll try to see what went wrong for her in London.
Sutume Asefa Kebede – Ethiopia – 29 years old – 2:15:55 pb (Tokyo, 2024)
Why Kebede could win: She is the world leader in the marathon for 2024 thanks to her shocking run in Tokyo where she took 2:17 off her pb and won in 2:15:55. In that race, she destroyed Sifan Hassan just seven weeks after she destroyed Hellen Obiri by running 64:37 to win the Houston Half. Asefa as a new sponsor now – On – and I heard a rumor that she wants to run even faster in Chicago and make a splash.
Why Kebede might not win: Between 2016 and 2021, Kebede ran eight marathons. She only broke 2:23 once, only won once and never broke 2:20. She was at best a B-level marathoner. She had a breakout race at Seoul in 2022 (2:18:12 for 2nd, also 8th in London in 2:20:44) but then was a DNF in London last year before running just 2:26:49 for 15th in Chicago last year.
Now she’s run 2:15 and I’m expected to believe that’s the norm and she’s going to be even better moving forward? That seems too good to be true. At the press event on Friday, I’m definitely going to try to ask her or her agent Marc Corstjens (same agent as the late Kelvin Kiptum) what explains her massive improvement.
Unlike prior to Tokyo, she has no prep races leading into Chicago (but she often doesn’t run prep races).
Joyciline Jepkosgei – Kenya – 30 years old – 2:16:24 pb (London, 2024)
Joyciline Jepkosgei celebrates her 2021 London win
Why Jepkosgei could win: Like Kebede, Jepkosgei enters Chicago after running a pb in her previous marathon as she lowered her pb from 2:17:23 to 2:16:24 to take third in London. Jepkosgei is a two-time past major marathon winer as she won New York in 2019 and London in 2021.
Why Jepkosgei might not win: Her win rate is nowhere near as good as Chepngetich’s. She’s only won two career marathons and that win at 2021 London was Jepkosgei’s last marathon win. Plus she only ran 67:04 for 3rd in the Antrim Half on August 25 (winning time was 65:31) whereas she ran 64:29 in a half before London.
Conclusion: Of the Big 3, based on CVs, Chepngetich should be the heavy favorite here. They are all roughly the same age but Chepngetich has the fastest pb and by far the highest win rate. The problem is, she comes into Chicago after her worst career marathon finish whereas the other two have never run faster.
Others That Could Win If The Big 3 Falter or If They Have A Big Breakthrough (in Order of Most Likely to Win to Least Likely)
Irine Cheptai – Kenya – 31 years old – 2:18:22 pb (Hamburg, 2024)
Of these longer shots, I like Cheptai BY FAR the best. She’s got a track pedigree as she was 6th in the 2021 Olympic 10,000. She has a 64:53 half marathon pb from 2023 and her first marathon went well as she won her debut in Hamburg at the end of April in 2:18:22. Since then she was second at Peachtree on July 4 in 31:13. She was also the world cross country champion back in 2017.
Degitu Azimeraw – Ethiopia – 25 years old – 2:17:58 pb (London, 2021)
Azimeraw has five career marathon finishes and she’s run 2:19 in three of them, including a 2:19:52 in in Barcelona in March. She did run 2:17:58 for 2nd in London in 2021 — so basically 2:18 flat — but 2:18 flat women don’t normally win majors in the year 2024. No prep races.
Hiwot Gebrekidan Gebremaryam – Ethiopia – 29 years old – 2:17:59 pb (Valencia, 2023)
Like Asefa Kebede, until recently, the 29-year-old Gebrekidan was a journeywoman of a marathoner. Between 2016 and 2020, she finished seven marathons (with wins in two of them) and never ran faster than 2:23:50. Since then she’s run five marathons and broken 2:20 in three of them including a 2:17:59 in Valencia at the end of last year. She was a DNF in Boston though in April after 25k.
Ashete Bekere Dido – Ethiopia – 36 years old – 2:17:58 pb (Tokyo, 2022)
The past winner of Valencia (2018), Rotterdam (2019, 2024) and Berlin (2019) comes into Chicago after having won Rotterdam in April in 2:19:30. But she’s 36 years old. Like Azimeraw, she has run 2:19 a lot recently — in three of her last four marathons — and that shouldn’t be good enough to win in Chicago.
And the winner will be…
I’m not foolish enough to make a prediction before the pre-race press conference. So come back on Friday to learn what we learned. We’ll be doing a live show from Chicago at 2 p.m. ET where we share what we learned at the press conference. If you can’t catch it live, join the Supporters Club to get it as a podcast.
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