What are the odds the Boston Marathon actually takes place in September?

Not going to happen.

The experts, like Fauci, are saying it may not even be safe to vote in person in November. So a massive road race in September is out of the question.

Harloper 2.0 wrote:

Not going to happen.

The experts, like Fauci, are saying it may not even be safe to vote in person in November. So a massive road race in September is out of the question.

Of course no mass events until 2021, but an elite race?

0% chance of it happening. 50% chance Spring 2021. No vaccine for common cold, no vaccine for this thing.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Harloper 2.0 wrote:

Not going to happen.

The experts, like Fauci, are saying it may not even be safe to vote in person in November. So a massive road race in September is out of the question.

Of course no mass events until 2021, but an elite race?

The money for the race, and for the elites, comes from everyone else running it. If they don’t, then no race.

Races anyplace are frills for cities . It’s not gonna happen for years . Get used to it races across the board are over .

That's not entirely true. They could still do a TV broadcast with elites-only which will reduce their losses versus running nothing I'd imagine.

I could see them doing some kind of "top 1,000 , Americans-only" kind of race if they check your temperature and give you a quick corona test in the athlete village (assuming that would be a thing by September). Would be easier to contact trace those people. No crowds at the finish line, but allow people to socially distance and cheer along the course in the outer towns. Maybe make the course narrower to ensure no spectator can get within 10 ft of a runner?

Idk just trying to come up with what the best scenario would be from the BAA's perspective, cuz there is pretty much no chance 30,000 runners and 500k spectators are gonna be allowed to participate in this thing.

brlt wrote:

Races anyplace are frills for cities . It’s not gonna happen for years . Get used to it races across the board are over .

Economic impact of the marathon in Boston is $200 million, not a frill. And much of that spending is in hospitality -- hotels, restaurants, bars, convention center -- which is getting wiped out by the shutdown. They will want that money as soon as they think it's safe, which I can't being years away.

Same goes for smaller races; cities and towns are going to be starving for revenue.

This is as dumb as a NASCAR race with no crowd, which they're going to do - then reveal to everyone that thought e-racing was funner anyway that they were right.

Put effort into virtual racing. That stands a much better chance of working. Virtual miles, like discussed on the podcast a few weeks back. Do a live Strava hour race.

Not with a virus with no vaccine. Not gonna happen until 2022 if there is a vaccine

The second wave is far more likely to hit in late Oct through December than mid September.

Realistically nobody knows how this plays out. Over the next 2-3 months (call it middle of July) the case count could go to about 0 and live could go back to relative normal. Or we could have various hot spots popping up (NYC for 6 weeks, Houston for 6, LA,...) where this keeps being a big issue. Everyone is guessing.

I do doubt anyone will be flying in from overseas for a marathon though...

I just don’t see it. Most other players covered plenty of reasons why. I would add that even if you made it an elite race with testing beforehand, you’re still going to get throngs of people coming to watch and there’s really no way to limit that.

Posters not players

Boston is not happening this year.

They just cancelled Berlin.

They do seem to have jumped the gun with the September reschedule, but I think they realized that pretty quickly. You gotta think they offered the refund option to try and make it a smaller race anyway, and if they had to defer to 2021 there are fewer deferrals and fewer qualifiers. Basically if there are no races in 2021 then you’re not gonna have any 2022 qualifiers anyway. Maybe they could pull off a September race if they do elites and top 10-20% qualifiers in each age bracket. That would both result in a pretty small race (already thinned by refunds) and have the added advantage of spacing out the race a bit on course. I do see that happening. I’ve been on the fence about taking the refund or taking my chances, because basically I think there is close to zero chance it actually happens in September. I also think the odds are against 2021. I do think that BAA has a history of. It screwing over participants, so I feel reasonably confident that if you don’t take the refund now, you will get to run at some point. I’ve also already got a couple of 30 minute + qualifiers for 2021 but I don’t really have $200 to just throw away.

Stupid phone keyboard:

DONT see that happening

History of NOT screwing its participants over.

I'm curious if the thoughts of "top 1000 Americans" or "10-20% of each age bracket" etc, are wishful thinking on the part of the posters or someone's view of realistic options. Those are the exact thoughts that keep me optimistic about having a chance to race in the fall, but I recognize that its wishful thinking. Boston set a precedent last year in separating the elite men from the field. Keeping that in mind, if I'm honest with myself I have to think its truly an elites only race if at all.

BouldeRunner wrote:

I'm curious if the thoughts of "top 1000 Americans" or "10-20% of each age bracket" etc, are wishful thinking on the part of the posters or someone's view of realistic options. Those are the exact thoughts that keep me optimistic about having a chance to race in the fall, but I recognize that its wishful thinking. Boston set a precedent last year in separating the elite men from the field. Keeping that in mind, if I'm honest with myself I have to think its truly an elites only race if at all.

What's this? Is there a rumour Boston is held with 10-20% top age group? As if! What about the charity runners? They'd be screaming! No chance. Cancelled or elite only.

still a miler wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Of course no mass events until 2021, but an elite race?

The money for the race, and for the elites, comes from everyone else running it. If they don’t, then no race.

how did tokyo do it this year?

fourth wave yellow bibs wrote:

BouldeRunner wrote:

I'm curious if the thoughts of "top 1000 Americans" or "10-20% of each age bracket" etc, are wishful thinking on the part of the posters or someone's view of realistic options. Those are the exact thoughts that keep me optimistic about having a chance to race in the fall, but I recognize that its wishful thinking. Boston set a precedent last year in separating the elite men from the field. Keeping that in mind, if I'm honest with myself I have to think its truly an elites only race if at all.

What's this? Is there a rumour Boston is held with 10-20% top age group? As if! What about the charity runners? They'd be screaming! No chance. Cancelled or elite only.

There is more of a chance of charity only than elites only. This board VASTLY over rates the appeal of public popularity of elite marathon racing