Might depend where you live...If school is back in session then that is certainly an argument for allowing groups to gather again.
Might depend where you live...If school is back in session then that is certainly an argument for allowing groups to gather again.
RuningManJumpSuit wrote:
The Olympics were 4 months away and are canceled. XC will be cancelled.
There were only 100m people in the US in 1918. It was much easier for things to die down plus once you get the flu you are immune to that strain. No one knows if that’s the case yet with this.
If there is no vaccine you’d be willing to go into a big group? College kids will be willing to fly to meets or ride on buses?
Olympics were a world wide event starting in 4 months. XC is a local thing that starts in a month later. See a the difference?
And yes without a vaccine, I odds are I will be hanging out in decent sized groups in 4 months. Seriously you are acting like this is the first pandemic in history. It isn't. Is there a chance that this is raging in 4+ months that makes things like XC and going to school a poor idea? Sure. Is it likely? Nope.
There will not be a racing season in 2020 or most of 2021. The olympics will be postponed until 2022 and all races will be cancelled until late 2021. Could be wrong.. but likely will be right.
dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:
XC season starts in 4-5 months. That is a long time for things like this to play out
Let me counter that opinion.
April: Shut down already.
May: Partially shut down in most states. Surely will be fully shut down in every state. (They might as well tell us that now.)
June: Partially shut down in some states already (e.g. Virginia). Other states will follow.
July: Sure to be some level of shutdown, no will be surprised if still complete shutdown in every state. And race directors will need to already know whether they hold a race next month.
August: Early-season XC races start.
September: XC season ramps up.
No XC because colleges won't open. More than 1/3rd of college will close their doors for good because of financial insolvency. The sicknesses are the easy part, the hard part comes when unemployment is at 50%. 100x more people will die from starving to death (or suicide) than will die from coronavirus.
tin can man wrote:
No XC because colleges won't open. More than 1/3rd of college will close their doors for good because of financial insolvency. The sicknesses are the easy part, the hard part comes when unemployment is at 50%. 100x more people will die from starving to death (or suicide) than will die from coronavirus.
Can we please stop pretending a financial crisis would cause more deaths than this pandemic. Linked below is a comprehensive study that showed in a total of 54 countries the 2008 financial crisis led to approximately an additional 5000 deaths from suicide. There have already been over 6,700 confirmed deaths in the US from this pandemic and that number will increase a magnitude over coming weeks.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3776046/Fugu wrote:
tin can man wrote:
No XC because colleges won't open. More than 1/3rd of college will close their doors for good because of financial insolvency. The sicknesses are the easy part, the hard part comes when unemployment is at 50%. 100x more people will die from starving to death (or suicide) than will die from coronavirus.
Can we please stop pretending a financial crisis would cause more deaths than this pandemic. Linked below is a comprehensive study that showed in a total of 54 countries the 2008 financial crisis led to approximately an additional 5000 deaths from suicide. There have already been over 6,700 confirmed deaths in the US from this pandemic and that number will increase a magnitude over coming weeks.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3776046/
Can we please stop pretending that this financial crisis will be similar in size to 2008? It will be many orders of magnitude larger.
I didn't want to list all the threats, but now I will. Starving to death, suicide, drug overdose (accidental), death due to being homeless (freezing to death), not being able to afford life saving medicine, crime will go up due to the hard times and murders will skyrocket too.
When 100 million Americans are without jobs, we are doomed. I predict we hit that number by the end of the summer.
RuningManJumpSuit wrote:
The only way this is getting back to normal is a vaccine. Everything will continue to be cancelled until that happens.
I agree. The alternative is widely available testing so that when someone is found to have COVID-19 they and everyone they have come in contact with over the past week or more can be isolated for days and tested. If we move the curve then 95% of population will not have the virus by say the fall. So is someone at a school, team, non-essential business in the fall catches COVID-19 then everyone who does not have the antibodies will need to be isolated and tested. That will cause a lot of disruption.
Football is the $$ King wrote:
Depends on Football. If the NCAA greenlights the NCAA Football season then all other Fall sports will continue. If there's no NCAA Football......then all the other sports are gone too.
most schools AD's will be willing to have a football season (though likely shortened) since if football is done this year, there will likely be massive cuts to athletic budgets, given football's $ contribution especially in the Power 5---time will tell...
Regardless of our not knowing the future I am remotely urging my Greater Boston Track Club team to prepare for a XC season. For clubs XC culminates in San Francisco on December 12 in Golden Gate Park.
If not there's indoors.
Then spring...
Also Boston Sept 14., 2020 or back to April 2021.
Keep training.
Tom
Football Nation wrote:
Spring sports are one thing. Fall sports are another. The differentiator? Football. No way this country goes without football.
I think you are overestimating the importance of football. England/Spain cancelled soccer which has a bigger and more rabid fanbase than Football.
Regeneron ( nailed Ebola treatment) and other biotech companies will have an antibody therapeutic in trials soon and available
late summer. Total game changer if successful, even if Covid-19 lights up again in the Fall.
Gotta keep the faith!
RuningManJumpSuit wrote:
The Olympics were 4 months away and are canceled. XC will be cancelled.
There were only 100m people in the US in 1918. It was much easier for things to die down plus once you get the flu you are immune to that strain. No one knows if that’s the case yet with this.
If there is no vaccine you’d be willing to go into a big group? College kids will be willing to fly to meets or ride on buses?
Its really not that deadly. Not that big of a deal.
I can’t see us having sports in the fall. I don’t believe we have to shut everything down until we have a vaccine, but summer training/fall racing is a bit far fetched at this point. We will have spring track for sure though.
jamin wrote:
dadsfadsfdasfdsafdas wrote:
XC season starts in 4-5 months. That is a long time for things like this to play out
Let me counter that opinion.
April: Shut down already.
May: Partially shut down in most states. Surely will be fully shut down in every state. (They might as well tell us that now.)
June: Partially shut down in some states already (e.g. Virginia). Other states will follow.
July: Sure to be some level of shutdown, no will be surprised if still complete shutdown in every state. And race directors will need to already know whether they hold a race next month.
August: Early-season XC races start.
September: XC season ramps up.
Let me counter.
April peaks
May fades
June it is at almost Zero. Maybe a few states that were hit late are still struggling
July things start opening
End August everyone goes back to school
Obviously we are all making stuff up. We know 3 months after lockdown China has started open up. That puts us on my schedule. Will we play out like China or something different? Who knows. We aren’t China. Or Italy. over the next 4 weeks a lot will be made clear. If we go from 1k deaths/day to 10k and are staying there, we are screwed. If we go from 1k to 5k and then head back down we are more likely to be in the clear.
hang in there wrote:
Regeneron ( nailed Ebola treatment) and other biotech companies will have an antibody therapeutic in trials soon and available
late summer. Total game changer if successful, even if Covid-19 lights up again in the Fall.
Gotta keep the faith!
If there is a therapeutic that is effective and widely available then it may allow some aspects of life to get back to normal. Another sticking point is at what point will it be used clinically. Will it be applied after the person with COVID-19 is on a ventilator or could it be applied before and prevent the need for a ventilator in most cases. Those with the flu who suffer with pneumonia spend only about 4 days on a ventilator because therapeutic are available. While reducing the time on a ventilator from 20 to 28 days on the long end to a few days would be a great improvement I am not sure it would still be acceptable for the thousands who could be infected during a likely 2nd wave in the fall. At least there would be a much better supply of ventilators. Would anyone want to go ahead and loosen all the restrictions such as allowing sporting events to resume if there was still a risk of a 2nd wave with many still possibly requiring hospitalizations?
soccerxc wrote:
If it is cancelled, that will be really tough. Like really really bad. Don’t know what I’ll do if my junior year track and senior year XC get cancelled. Just prayin God’s got me
Yeah... F all these other people. Let's all pray that god's got YOU.
Not unless everybody can get tested and get a certificate saying they don’t have covid-19 exposure. This slowdown is to blunt the curve. We’re still going to have some form of social distancing got at least a year, I’m guessing.
The Spanish flu pandemic became serious in March 1918 and didn't really end until 1919; also, it only ended because everyone who was susceptible to it died or developed immunity.* The death toll was high because 1) governments avoided publicising information about the outbreak for political reasons (this was during WWII and no government wanted to admit that they were having such a struggle with the disease), and 2) people didn't take it seriously and did not follow guidelines to prevent the spread of the disease until it was too late **. Given that this pandemic is currently playing out in a disturbingly similar fashion, it's not unreasonable to expect a similar timeline to the 1918 pandemic; this could easily take much longer than 4-5 months.
* Source:
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic#section_13
** Source:
Ummm Wait wrote:
The Spanish flu pandemic became serious in March 1918 and didn't really end until 1919; also, it only ended because everyone who was susceptible to it died or developed immunity.* The death toll was high because 1) governments avoided publicising information about the outbreak for political reasons (this was during WWII and no government wanted to admit that they were having such a struggle with the disease), and 2) people didn't take it seriously and did not follow guidelines to prevent the spread of the disease until it was too late **. Given that this pandemic is currently playing out in a disturbingly similar fashion, it's not unreasonable to expect a similar timeline to the 1918 pandemic; this could easily take much longer than 4-5 months.
* Source:
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic#section_13** Source:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/15/us/philadelphia-1918-spanish-flu-trnd/index.html
Is this pandemic playing out like 1918 or is it playing out like 1957 and 1968 or 2009? So far it is more like the others. 1918 wasn't a deadly flu at first. It was highly contagious but the death rate was the same as any other seasonal flu. Then it mutated and came back in the fall and ravaged the globe. Right now we have a much deadlier flu (i.e. like 1957 and 1968). Obviously it is too early to talk about if it will mutate into something more deadly. And it should be pointed out that the reason that the spanish flu was deadly was pneumonia. With antibiotics, most of those deaths wouldn't have happened. It is a bit different than a virsus that destroys your lungs.
And you have the wrong war. Of course WWI is why it is called the spanish flu and not the Kansas flu....