Important to note that total US second derivative falling seen over last 11 days is from cases contracted 10-12 days prior to being reported (5-6 days average from contracting virus to having symptoms and another 5-6 days average for test results).
Hopefully what is actually happening now continues the trend and growth rate is actually way, way down (even though on a larger base).
Rachele 1 wrote:
NO! It will get much much worse! Listen to the scientist!
Only Dr. Fauci is a scientist. He is the world-leading renowned expert on corona viruses. And he still says everyone in NY will die.
Bad Wigins is good with numbers ???
Sleepless in Seattle wrote:
Hopefully what is actually happening now continues the trend and growth rate is actually way, way down (even though on a larger base).
NYC's confirmed level of 43,000 could easily be more than a million infected at this point. Out of 8 million total, that could be approaching R < 1 level and a Wuhan-style sudden halt to new cases.
The global trend of the highest-density areas seeing the worst results is promising. NYC area was probably the worst the US will see. LA has had it for quite a while but never blown up. Likely too warm.
Global south is mucking around in the dozens and hundreds of cases to about 1000 of cases, mainly, many of them well on the way to flatlining their growth.
Yea its getting worse and worse! It is so exciting. Were all gonna get it! Its the end of the world!
Yes its true a hundred ten people die every day in the USA and 4 thousand world wide every day just in traffic accidents alone, but this virus and panic is so exciting!
hope and stats wrote:
I hope this is true, but I would be very skeptical of Levitt. He is a scientist, but his area is not virologist (science of viruses) and he's not an epidemiologist (those studying the community spread of disease). Be very wary of these "armchair epidemiologists" All the modeling and analysis I have seen shows no evidence of this. Hope for the best plan for the worst.
Here is a nice point-by-point discussion by a PhD in stats and post doc in Public Health (who, despite good qualifications, is not presenting an expert, but fighting dangerous misinformation) of sportswriter Clay Travis who also cites Levitt. Worth a read. Data is not data. Data needs context (what measures were implemented in that country?, etc.).
https://statsinthewild.com/2020/03/30/clay-travis-said-another-stupid-thing-and-this-time-it-actually-matters/Also, this is the model the government is following:
http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The narrative has been drafted