Trump says US Could Re-open in 2 weeks.

Gallup sez wrote:

His 49% approval rating would disagree with you. His re-election chances are still very strong. He has a firm base. The Democrats are fractured between the moderats and progressives.

You beat me to it. I was looking at disapproval ratings on 538, which have made a pretty big move down to just over 50%, almost an all time low. But same thing.

I can't stand Trump. And my Mom REALLY can't stand Trump. But the non-Trump has been an incoherent pseudoscience drivel, based 100% on alarmism and 0% on an actual successful outcome. This 'plan', of we all need to stay inside, we need absolute compliance, and we need to do it indefinitely ... this is not a plan.

I don't think most Trump supporters are dumb. And I don't even think most of them really like Trump. They just like him a bit better than the alternative. And opening by April 12th and rolling the dice is a better plan than the current alternative.

If you think we need to stay locked down longer than that, that's fine. You're probably right. But you need a better plan, and it needs most thoughtful and analytically sound consideration. So stop whining and get to it.

Renato Corona wrote:

But the non-Trump 'plan' has been incoherent pseudoscience drivel, based 100% on alarmism and 0% on an actual successful outcome.

Fixed my own typos. Man, who am I calling incoherent ...

Vardy wrote:

[quote]bladerunner wrote:

Where are people going to get the drink and drugs in isolation?

You do realize that liquor stores are open?

As are drug stores?

Pretty sure those who supply illegal drugs are not shutting down their businesses.

The only things shut down in my state are bars, restaurants, and barber shops. So the people who are out of a job are small business owners and people who rely on tips to feed their children. Most alcohol sales are at grocery stores.

The only intelligent plan is putting the people on basic income and telling them they'll be bored for a while.

Look at the curves for your state here. Lets use florida as an example, If florida opens back up, by early may 450,000 people need hospitalization and over 2 million are sick. This seems like a good plan to you? People are going to flock to the beaches with 2 million sick people? They're going to want to come on vacation? Good time to go to Disney?

Its natural for the human mind to not understand exponential growth. I wouldn't unless I'd been doing the research. We need a leader to step up and deliver these kinds of numbers to the nation. I hope governors defy Trump and keep us sheltering in place for the safety of our parents, friends, lovers, etc.

Funny thing is I don't even like my family members as much as most people, yet I'm not so gleeful to see them die for the god of money.

worst president ever.

A few weeks ago:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/trump-says-the-coronavirus-is-the-democrats-new-hoax.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain&fbclid=IwAR17HZjgKXAmk8Jn_fxrAfkOi7n869Fdx6_9OOiS8GKPqON-xB6y653pLJw

“The only intelligent plan is putting people on basic income and telling them they’ll be bored for awhile”.

So...basically socialism...

I don’t like Trump and didn’t vote for him. He is narcissistic and immature. His tweeting is awful. But he still has some level of common sense that appeals to his base. If he makes the call to re-open the economy and the virus ends up not killing nearly as many people as the doomsday media and medical experts predicted, the reelection is his. He’ll spin it once again as the media trying to destroy him, and his base (the waitresses, small business owners, and retail workers) will eat it up because they are the ones living in fear of how to pay their bills right now.

applestoapples wrote:

“The only intelligent plan is putting people on basic income and telling them they’ll be bored for awhile”.

So...basically socialism...

I don’t like Trump and didn’t vote for him. He is narcissistic and immature. His tweeting is awful. But he still has some level of common sense that appeals to his base. If he makes the call to re-open the economy and the virus ends up not killing nearly as many people as the doomsday media and medical experts predicted, the reelection is his. He’ll spin it once again as the media trying to destroy him, and his base (the waitresses, small business owners, and retail workers) will eat it up because they are the ones living in fear of how to pay their bills right now.

Trump will come out and say "everyone was saying 10 million would die but only 1 million died" and will get reelected.

Basic income? There is no basic income if the supply chain is shut down.money won't be worth anything in 2 weeks if there is no TP or milk or eggs or bananas.

applestoapples wrote:

“The only intelligent plan is putting people on basic income and telling them they’ll be bored for awhile”.

So...basically socialism...

If he makes the call to re-open the economy and the virus ends up not killing nearly as many people as the doomsday media and medical experts predicted, the reelection is his. .

Yeah, if my kid brings home Fs all year and then finally gets off his lazy ass and starts to do some work and brings home Cs and Ds, I'm going to buy him a new car. Actually, no. Glad you finally did something, you duffer, but you get no reward for doing what you should have been doing all along.

Kvothe wrote:

The only intelligent plan is putting the people on basic income and telling them they'll be bored for a while.

https://www.covidactnow.org/

I agree in that at least this is an actual plan. Whether or not it's a good plan depends on some things.

Like, how much would a universal income for everyone cost? How do we generate that revenue? What's an intelligent, analytical way of maximizing the number of people back at work and thus revenue, while minimizing risk? What are the economic and psychological realities, of putting huge numbers of people on the dole for a long time? Can you ever take them off?

Right now we have heavyhanded, hand-wavy 'best practices' not based on anything, and a growing number of people not happy with a "just listen to the experts!" solution, possible because a lot of people have enough wisdom to know that blindly listening to 'experts' has a poor track record.

I think Trump pretty quickly calculated that his best chance for re-election, was to go all in on "let's get back to work!" and to have that gamble pay off. And I believe that's accurate. And I certainly don't hope he's wrong. So ... I guess that means I hope Trump is our next president? Yikes.

Dr Fauci and the CDC? "Pseudo-scientific drivel"? So whose science would you rely on? Yours?

You call for a better plan. But isn't that the responsibility of the POTUS? How would you differ from what Governor Cuomo - and others like him - are trying to do? You are aware he is trying to save lives, right?

I am not sure it matters much whether Trump sends everyone back to work after Easter. The current measures in the US are completely inadequate. I am in a huge city in the south with over 300 positives. We finally got a "stay at home" order. But it is full of holes. Basically, all construction can keep going. Any sort of restaurant, bar, brewery, coffee shop, etc. can stay open if they just offer carry out. There is no enforcement so far with tons of businesses violating the order. There will be plenty of COVID 19 cases out there by Easter to zero out any progress towards containing the outbreak.

What will happen after Easter if everyone goes back to work is the US will be crippled by a massive outbreak of the virus while the rest of the world will take the lockdown measures serious enough to be able to get control over the virus and slowly ramp their economies back.

But the big problem for the US will be that the world will not want to have anything to do with us while we let the virus run rampant in our country. Americans will not be able to travel abroad. A lot of businesses will give up on doing business in the US and pull their people out. Everywhere else in the world there will be a v shaped recession with the US going into a full blown depression.

Or, alternatively, the people of the United States go out, start working and live their lifes. People die but Americans do eventually gain herd immunity. Other countries, like Italy and China, have to go on lockdown every flu season (and people still die just over the period of many flu seasons instead of just one or two).

Precious Roy wrote:

I am in a huge city in the south with over 300 positives. We finally got a "stay at home" order. But it is full of holes.

Be Someone!

Trump will be broke by Easter, so that’s his strategy. Personal survival.

Did Trump say the word "Easter" today?

Let's check back into how the pandemic is spreading in the United States and what we have to expect based on the data we have, as problematic as some of it may be:

Yesterday, there were over 11,000 new cases from a base of 43,800 cases, giving us 54,856 (at the moment we're at 61,808 and that number will grow quite a bit by tonight, so the numbers are still climbing fast today). At 25% increase, less than previous days, that would put us still at 400,000 cases in 10 days and 4.8 million in 21 days.

There were also 225 more deaths, bringing us to 780 (we're at 859 at the moment).

Deaths increased by 40.5% in one day from 555 to 780, more than the previous day's increase of 34%. At that 40.5% rate increase in ten days, we'd have a total of 16,636 deaths, or almost 4,000 more than the total from H1N1 in 2009-10 flu season. 21 days would give over 700,000 deaths.

A reasonable guess would put it between 500,000 and 700,000, given daily fluctuations, unless strict containment measures are taken. The isolation we've had so far has helped but it's not nearly enough and so many people already had it, or got it from their families, that the death toll was going to rise a lot once some of them progressed from initial infection to serious problems.

At some point, you've got to listen and learn from the curve and the recent historical experience of other countries.

If we let it go unchecked, the math says that 325,000,000 will die in the US. Pretty sure I am recovering so that would be pretty good to have only a few people around.