rg2 wrote:
birdbeard wrote:
Doesn't seem all that crazy to me. Italy was at 800 today. Our country is about 5x bigger than Italy and we are on the same trajectory.
Wrong, we are 8 days behind Italy. 8 days ago Italy had about 250 die in a day, we would need 1500 dead today, to be equivalent. We’ve only had a total of 300. We are much lower than Italy. If we’re not up to 10,000 deaths by next weekend then there needs to be some outrage on these restrictions.
It's better to divide this up into different US states, like Europe is divided into different countries. The different US states are different in their characteristics (such as density, how much people travel, demographics, etc.). The virus is hitting the cluster level at different times in different states.
And the response is being coordinated mostly on the state or local level.
Using data from the graphs in the link below, in Western Europe, you have France and 8.5 days behind Italy, Germany 9 days behind Italy, Switzerland 14 days behind Italy, UK 15 days behind Italy, Netherlands 16 days behind Italy, so it makes sense to look at European countries separately.
In the same way, it makes sense to look at US states separately. Here are some of the states graphed:
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/20mar2020/covid-us-norm.pngGraph from here:
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/