Darwin12 wrote: Even the CDC admits that if you physically get the flu your resistance to the flu in subsequent years is magnified. You gotta pay to play. Get the flu now and maybe have a chance of surviving a real pandemic.
Is that true? Can someone provide a source?
I did read that the Spanish Flu didn’t kill that many old people as they had some sort of immunity from a previous flu from like 50 years earlier.
applestoapples wrote:
I think when all is said and done, this virus will end up being *slightly* worse than the seasonal flu. Whether that is worth crushing the entire global economy for remains to be seen.
You have to wait and see what a devastating recession/depression looks like? No, it is not worth it.
Especially because all the jackwads who made it happen will be going around bragging about how they stopped the virus with your "sacrifice."
rojo wrote:
Darwin12 wrote: Even the CDC admits that if you physically get the flu your resistance to the flu in subsequent years is magnified. You gotta pay to play. Get the flu now and maybe have a chance of surviving a real pandemic.
Is that true? Can someone provide a source?
I did read that the Spanish Flu didn’t kill that many old people as they had some sort of immunity from a previous flu from like 50 years earlier.
I don't have a source but it is almost common knowledge that if you get a virus and your body wins then you will be less likely to have a problem with it in the future. Its the same idea of giving people shots with that season's projected flu strain so they get a little sick after the shot and not really sick when they encounter it in an uncontrolled environment.
Here is a NY Times article on how the flu works better in terms of future immunity vrs the flu shot. Obviously, the payoff is actually physically getting sick.
is another article that explains it better.
https://www.kqed.org/stateofhealth/152601/better-immunity-from-flu-vaccine-or-flu-itself
The most interesting documented evidence of not just individual future immunity but generational immunity was a NOVA episode that showed that the lucky plague victims that survived the Black Death gave the gift of immunity to their future DNA recipients in the form of HIV immunity. Completely nuts that a disease that hadn't even hit the planet yet had a population that was already immune. In the end, evolution always wins no matter how much man tries to play God.
rojo wrote:
Darwin12 wrote: Even the CDC admits that if you physically get the flu your resistance to the flu in subsequent years is magnified. You gotta pay to play. Get the flu now and maybe have a chance of surviving a real pandemic.
Is that true? Can someone provide a source?
I did read that the Spanish Flu didn’t kill that many old people as they had some sort of immunity from a previous flu from like 50 years earlier.
That's one theory. Another theory is that a young person's healthy, strong immune system overreacted to this particular virus creating what is called a "cytokine storm" resulting in a hyper-inflammatory response that caused death. The high mortality rate was overwhelming seen in the 20-40 age group and much less in the older population demographics. We're seeing the exact opposite with COVID-19.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/It's been about a month since I started this thread, and I think what I said is still correct.
China is now seeing a second wave on infections, showing that zero nations can contain this.
Countries are building temporary hospitals (however some are not being used due to flattening of the curve).
Most experts agree a vaccine is 12-18 months out - far too long to wait, issuing bail-outs to an economy on life support.
The supply chain for essential goods is disintegrating (lack of medical PPE, meat processing facilities being shut down due to infections, temporary farm workers' ability to relocate and get to work quickly is uncertain, etc)
New info:
25-50% of cases are asymptomatic, which means the original dream of being able to test our way out is more out of reach. We will need true mass blanket testing of entire communities to test our way out, now.
But the above also means the fatality rate is much lower than the initial WHO estimate of 3.4%. It's definitely less than 2% and perhaps lower than 1%. The lowest figure I've seen is 0.66%.
When I wrote my original post, people were acting like this would all be over in a month or two. No. This will take years unless we get a vaccine. I think people are finally coming around to that reality.
Update:
One vaccine has been shown to not offer strong protection against a variant, and there are definitely more variants to come.
Much like the common cold, people who got the coronavirus are now being shown to be susceptible to evolved versions of it, meaning this virus may end up being something more like a "cold on steroids."
This "run its course" is already happening.
Deaths are insane on a daily basis right now, but case numbers are dropping. The Super Bowl will cause a surge, because people are dumb, but the numbers don't lie. April/May it's going to start feeling normal.
Full speed ahead by Labor Day.
Our new world will accept 3-400 daily Covid deaths next fall and winter, especially if it's a minor flu season.
Well, it took 9 months to get vaccines approved and out to the first people. 2.2 million people have died, including 475,000 Americans. Countries that had real social distancing and mask wearing have had minimal death toll and are getting vaccinated now, so that they'll come out of this with anywhere from 1/100 to 1/5 of countries that didn't when they're all vaccinated in four or five months. So, no, the OP's thread didn't wear well.
GreenBeans wrote:
rojo wrote:
Is that true? Can someone provide a source?
I did read that the Spanish Flu didn’t kill that many old people as they had some sort of immunity from a previous flu from like 50 years earlier.
I don't have a source but it is almost common knowledge that if you get a virus and your body wins then you will be less likely to have a problem with it in the future. Its the same idea of giving people shots with that season's projected flu strain so they get a little sick after the shot and not really sick when they encounter it in an uncontrolled environment.
This is not a rule in virology. There can be antibody-dependent enhancement that makes the second infection much worse that the first. Dengue fever is more deadly the second time because of ADE.
zxcvzxcv wrote:
Well, it took 9 months to get vaccines approved and out to the first people. 2.2 million people have died, including 475,000 Americans. Countries that had real social distancing and mask wearing have had minimal death toll and are getting vaccinated now, so that they'll come out of this with anywhere from 1/100 to 1/5 of countries that didn't when they're all vaccinated in four or five months. So, no, the OP's thread didn't wear well.
Some realistic truths. The majority of Western county has relatively similar deaths per capita to the US. Most are plus-minus 20%. A few went hard lockdowns that America would never submit to and have around half, or are countries like Russia whose numbers can not be trusted. For New Zealand fans, sorry we are not an island in the middle of the ocean with more goats than people.
Third world countries are not a comparison because they do not have the same testing capabilities and people usually do not live to the age where Covid is super deadly.
Another important note between the US and some other countries. The US population is wildly unhealthy and obese. The truth is if we had a population with the health level of say Japan we would have had a significantly lower IFR. It has been shown the IFR is much higher for obese people, so I would argue our fat problem is amplifying what should be a much smaller Covid problem.
So in summary the US did not do the worst in the world. If we had stayed more open and left it up to individual choice our deaths likely would not have been much more due to Covid, and suicide and OD deaths would have been less. Right now Covid cases in the US are declining not because of the vaccine but because 60%ish of the population has had COVID. The vaccine's impact is for the very vulnerable who have sheltered are now safer, but for the rest of the population, not a big impact.
OP was right wrote:
So in summary the US did not do the worst in the world. If we had stayed more open and left it up to individual choice our deaths likely would not have been much more due to Covid, and suicide and OD deaths would have been less. Right now Covid cases in the US are declining not because of the vaccine but because 60%ish of the population has had COVID. The vaccine's impact is for the very vulnerable who have sheltered are now safer, but for the rest of the population, not a big impact.
Multiple huge errors here:
1) no evidence suicides are up in the US generally
2) 60% COVID attack? Maybe 25% at best. Happy to accept data showing otherwise but that is comically wrong otherwise.
Given the massive winter wave we have had with significant NPIs in place, it's hard to argue we wouldn't have seen much more carnage had we kept things open. We are ~1/3rd of the way to infection-driven herd immunity by reasonable numbers. That's 750k+ additional deaths!
I remember when people thought we were at herd immunity after wave 1 and ~500-800 deaths/million.
zxcvzxcv wrote:
Well, it took 9 months to get vaccines approved and out to the first people. 2.2 million people have died, including 475,000 Americans. Countries that had real social distancing and mask wearing have had minimal death toll and are getting vaccinated now, so that they'll come out of this with anywhere from 1/100 to 1/5 of countries that didn't when they're all vaccinated in four or five months. So, no, the OP's thread didn't wear well.
Thanks for the CNN summary.
Orange man BAD
Dementia man GOOD
OP was right wrote:
So in summary the US did not do the worst in the world.
No, you are down in seventh. Belgium, Slovenia and the UK topping the medal table currently...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/A real blast from the past. Remember "The people predicting 2600 cases/66,000 deaths are less wrong than the people predicting 2 million deaths!!!"? If only that had been true.
China virus wrote:
zxcvzxcv wrote:
Well, it took 9 months to get vaccines approved and out to the first people. 2.2 million people have died, including 475,000 Americans. Countries that had real social distancing and mask wearing have had minimal death toll and are getting vaccinated now, so that they'll come out of this with anywhere from 1/100 to 1/5 of countries that didn't when they're all vaccinated in four or five months. So, no, the OP's thread didn't wear well.
Thanks for the CNN summary.
Orange man BAD
Dementia man GOOD
And yet it was Orange man that had to brag he passed a basic cognitive test. Biden can ride a bike still. Very difficult to do if you have dementia.