Aragon wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
1% in middle distance can be the difference between 1st and nowhere. 2 seconds in the 1500 can be 8 places or more.
I am not accusing you of this logical fallacy, but do realize that with emphasizing the significance of 0.5 or 1.0 % boosts, you are undermining the widespread claim that the blood doping boost must be like 3-5 % otherwise athletes wouldn't use it?
From viewpoint of athletes' decision making process and known prevalence of blood doping, it could even be that the expected boost would be almost zero with like 30 % possibility of 1 % boost, and very many athletes would've blood doped and would continue to do do in absense of a reliable detection method
I haven't argued that blood doping would likely produce a given level of performance improvement - others have done that, here and elsewhere. A figure I have seen quoted has often been in the region of about 3%. I am not arguing that is the case - although I don't dispute it.
My point is rather that if the advantage from doping is minimal - and a figure of 1% was given - that would still have a dramatic effect on outcomes; 1% is almost the difference between first and last in a championship final.
I added that that the figure could be even much less - say, 0.5% - and the result would be very much the same. However, most estimates that I am aware of suggest the benefits amongst elites would be greater than 1%. Examples also of athletes who have tested positive confirm this; their improvements have been substantial.
Furthermore, I would take the view that the incidence of doping - high as it is - is also attributable to the gains that athletes experience when they dope. Thousands of athletes dope; they wouldn't take the risks involved if they didn't literally feel it was making them run faster. Case studies of those who have used doping confirm that was their experience. Doping is typically a programme, not a pill, and athletes would see the difference it was making to training and performance. I realise that point is too obvious for some non-athletes to grasp.
It is untenable to argue that a practise that has occurred over generations of athletes would in many cases be little more than a placebo. Doping is now a science, conducted by professionals, not a crude speculative gamble by amateurs. It has utterly changed sport - all sport.