Vancomycin wrote:
It is insane that the "deniers" argument is now: we should WAIT until millions are infected,
Pay attention - millions probably are infected already. Or tens of millions.
Vancomycin wrote:
It is insane that the "deniers" argument is now: we should WAIT until millions are infected,
Pay attention - millions probably are infected already. Or tens of millions.
Exactly. The CDC released a report TODAY (
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
) on disease severity based on the first 2500 positive cases in the US (through March 16th). The numbers are alarming and even a week more of growth at the same rate would overwhelm any healthcare systems.
Including numbers for the younger age bracket because LRC seems to think we are safe:
20-30% of positives required hospitalization, including 14-21% of 21-44 years olds.
5-12% needed ICU admission, including 2-4% of 21-44 year olds.
1.8-3.4% died, including 0.1-0.2% of 21-44 year olds.
These numbers are significantly more serious than the flu. It cannot be allowed to reach infection levels like the flu.
Sequencing of individual viral genomes DO NOT support this idea. Maybe 5-10x are infected over what we have tested. But has not reached population saturation yet. Containment is critical.
Bad Wigins wrote:
Pay attention - millions probably are infected already. Or tens of millions.
How do you reconcile this chart:
http://www.biotecnologi.org/anbi/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Coronavirus-ENG-1024x771.png
With your inane idea that everyone is infected and testing is just discovering new cases with no additional healthcare system load?
Facts. Matter wrote:
What would make me believe it's not being overblown?
How about some evidence that the virus is actually as deadly as they want you to believe. As I've stated so many times, the coronavirus doesn't come anywhere near to keeping pace with the flu deaths. You can say that's because the flu is established, or because the coronavirus hasn't mutated, or whatever reason you want to say, but that doesn't change the fact that each and every single day, the flu kills more people in the United States than the coronavirus does. That's not a guess, it's not a projection, it's a fact!
You simply lack numeracy. It's common. Hard to learn.
Large numbers and nonlinear growth rates are challenging concepts.
I kind of support these long winded non-even-wrong diatribes you write because it does cause some unconscious self-reflection that might teach you a few middle school math concepts.
This was your "question" you asked me. You're hilarious. You admitting you are fine with containment means deep down you understand the risk. Your contrarian BS is just entertaining, I guess?
Facts. Matter wrote:
When will I accept that it's NOT overblown? When will you accept that it IS,
22,000 is still more than 115
370,000 is still more than 7324
Harambe wrote:
Facts. Matter wrote:
What would make me believe it's not being overblown?
How about some evidence that the virus is actually as deadly as they want you to believe. As I've stated so many times, the coronavirus doesn't come anywhere near to keeping pace with the flu deaths. You can say that's because the flu is established, or because the coronavirus hasn't mutated, or whatever reason you want to say, but that doesn't change the fact that each and every single day, the flu kills more people in the United States than the coronavirus does. That's not a guess, it's not a projection, it's a fact!
You simply lack numeracy. It's common. Hard to learn.
Large numbers and nonlinear growth rates are challenging concepts.
I kind of support these long winded non-even-wrong diatribes you write because it does cause some unconscious self-reflection that might teach you a few middle school math concepts.
Oh, look, he used big words, he must be smart! ?
Large numbers and nonlinear growth rates have nothing to do with the facts as they stand RIGHT NOW. You idiots still don't get it. You want to speculate what might be and I keep bringing you back to reality. The reality is that the flu is killing more people everyday and you keep arguing with me about it. The flu has killed 144 children in the USA this season, that's more than the 118 people of any age that the coronavirus has killed. Go apply your nonlinear growth rate to that, jackass.
Vancomycin wrote:
This was your "question" you asked me. You're hilarious
Which was in response you the question you asked me dipshit.
What would make you accept this is NOT overblown? Honest question.
WOW, you really are an idiot!
Facts. Matter wrote:
Oh, look, he used big words, he must be smart! ?
Large numbers and nonlinear growth rates have nothing to do with the facts as they stand RIGHT NOW. You idiots still don't get it. You want to speculate what might be and I keep bringing you back to reality. The reality is that the flu is killing more people everyday and you keep arguing with me about it. The flu has killed 144 children in the USA this season, that's more than the 118 people of any age that the coronavirus has killed. Go apply your nonlinear growth rate to that, jackass.
You're proving my point for me, I appreciate it. You are unable to extrapolate simple trends out even a few days (hours?). Of course things look not-so-serious if you view numbers absent from any context. Sadly applying that context requires numeracy that you do not possess.
However, I am still optimistic that you can learn from these boards and an algebra I textbook. Give me your address and I'll ship one to you!
Harambe wrote:
Facts. Matter wrote:
Oh, look, he used big words, he must be smart! ?
Large numbers and nonlinear growth rates have nothing to do with the facts as they stand RIGHT NOW. You idiots still don't get it. You want to speculate what might be and I keep bringing you back to reality. The reality is that the flu is killing more people everyday and you keep arguing with me about it. The flu has killed 144 children in the USA this season, that's more than the 118 people of any age that the coronavirus has killed. Go apply your nonlinear growth rate to that, jackass.
You're proving my point for me, I appreciate it. You are unable to extrapolate simple trends out even a few days (hours?). Of course things look not-so-serious if you view numbers absent from any context. Sadly applying that context requires numeracy that you do not possess.
However, I am still optimistic that you can learn from these boards and an algebra I textbook. Give me your address and I'll ship one to you!
Fake, wannabe smart people are hilarious.
Save your book for toilet paper, I already mastered it. You sound like one of the paper hoarders so you keep it.
You better register a new name after this because you are about to look like the complete jackass that you are.
Facts. Matter wrote:
Fake, wannabe smart people are hilarious.
Save your book for toilet paper, I already mastered it. You sound like one of the paper hoarders so you keep it.
You better register a new name after this because you are about to look like the complete jackass that you are.
Harambe will live on forever. Not even bullets could stop him. Room-temperature IQs like yours pose no threat.
Hehe your refusal to acknowledge the second have of my post just proves my point. We score this one as a win boys. He's on our side now!
Facts. Matter wrote:
Vancomycin wrote:
This was your "question" you asked me. You're hilarious
Which was in response you the question you asked me dipshit.
What would make you accept this is NOT overblown? Honest question.
WOW, you really are an idiot!
blinker wrote:
coronasceptic wrote:
I'm looking at the numbers, every day, in every country. I do not see anything nearly as serious as the number of flu deaths, auto accidents, suicides every year. I know the numbers will grow in the US, but I just don't see the millions of deaths on the horizon that we're being commanded to believe.
And if you're going to throw out some number below "millions", why is 25% unemployment, worldwide despair, inflation the answer?
Why do you think China shut down an entire region, built new hospitals, and plunged its economy into recession if they didn't think the threat was real? Was it just a hoax by their liberal media to take down their president?
Also, I don't understand why you think the number of auto accidents, etc. is relevant to coronavirus. Yes all those other deaths are human tragedies but the difference is they are spread out evenly throughout the year and the country so there is no undue pressure placed on our healthcare system.
Our health care system is not set up to deal with the type of large spikes that are anticipated. What happens if someone has a heart attack and the hospitals are full? Or if someone is seriously injured in a auto accident but there are no available medical personnel? It's not just the absolute deaths it's what happens if we can't provide treatment for everyone that needs it. You can't see that would be a problem?
It's that large anticipated spike that's doubted by many. Italy is the only example where an apparently weak government-run healthcare system and an apparently unhealthy and older population have combined to stress the system. The rest of the data doesn't look alarming to me compared to various other health issues.
The news keeps reporting that the numbers are going to explode - because of testing! How will testing destroy our health care system? The new talking point is that the mortality rate will drop as the extent of infections is understood. Sounds like they're hedging their bets on whether the ICUs will be overflowing soon.
But maybe I'm wrong, gun sales have skyrocketed and gun shops are unable to keep up with demand. As society crumbles, yes perhaps our healthcare system won't be equipped for it.
Bad Wigins wrote:
Pay attention - millions probably are infected already. Or tens of millions.
Exactly, and they haven't died and they're fine.
It's very likely been around for decades already, and no one even knew about it or else thought it was just a mild case of the flu.
How many people have been exposed and/or infected can't be known.
Thus we have to use the total population, the same as is done with every other cause of death.
150 = US deaths attributed to covid19
331,002,651 = US population
= 1 death for every 2.2 million people
dunes runner wrote:
How many people have been exposed and/or infected can't be known.
Thus we have to use the total population, the same as is done with every other cause of death.
150 = US deaths attributed to covid19
331,002,651 = US population
= 1 death for every 2.2 million people
I can send you an algebra I textbook also. I consider it charity at this point.
These wild animal practices must end permanently...livestock in China Asia wet markets
Google wet markets
Is it any wonder so many virus get traced back to the same area???
Write your Congress person the White House etc
Demand change!
Front end measures...end these wet market practices vs back end life stopping death despair illness lockdown ie shat we have now
Vancomycin wrote:
Exactly. The CDC released a report TODAY (
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm) on disease severity based on the first 2500 positive cases in the US (through March 16th). The numbers are alarming and even a week more of growth at the same rate would overwhelm any healthcare systems.
Including numbers for the younger age bracket because LRC seems to think we are safe:
20-30% of positives required hospitalization, including 14-21% of 21-44 years olds.
5-12% needed ICU admission, including 2-4% of 21-44 year olds.
1.8-3.4% died, including 0.1-0.2% of 21-44 year olds.
These numbers are significantly more serious than the flu. It cannot be allowed to reach infection levels like the flu.
Again. No one can get the test. They only test those in severe condition. For every one they test, there are ten or more people with a mild case. It would be like trying to find the fastest miler in the US, but only picking from retirees, since they are home during the day to train...
It’s not rocket science where this stuff is coming from...
Well that's not entirely true any more in the Bay and Seattle they are testing 1000s per day. We will have a better sense of the numbers soon. SK has tested hundreds of thousands and sees a hospitalization rate 20-50x that of flu.
Kvothe wrote:
Again. No one can get the test. They only test those in severe condition. For every one they test, there are ten or more people with a mild case. It would be like trying to find the fastest miler in the US, but only picking from retirees, since they are home during the day to train...
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