10 DAYS TO COLLAPSE, warns Tom Bossert former Homeland Security Advisor

By The Numbers wrote:

Coronavirus cases increase 10x every 15-20 days. This means in the USA we will have:

March 15: 1k cases

April 1: 10k cases

April 15: 100k cases

May 1: 1 Million cases

Obviously it might not go that high if a quarantine is put in place. But you should expect the USA to start shutting down by early April.

i can't see it getting past 100k.

The US will do containment/mandatory social distancing/quarantining before then.

Right?

I mean, there's no way it goes over 100,000 in the US alone. We weren't the first hit, it would be ridiculous.

Assume: An infected person has 1:10 chance to infect someone else.

An infected person interacts with 100 people in one day.

Day 1: 10 new people become infected.

Those 10 newly infected people each interact with 100 people in the following day.

Day 2: 100 more people become infected.

wtfbbq wrote:

By The Numbers wrote:

Coronavirus cases increase 10x every 15-20 days. This means in the USA we will have:

March 15: 1k cases

April 1: 10k cases

April 15: 100k cases

May 1: 1 Million cases

Obviously it might not go that high if a quarantine is put in place. But you should expect the USA to start shutting down by early April.

i can't see it getting past 100k.

The US will do containment/mandatory social distancing/quarantining before then.

Right?

I mean, there's no way it goes over 100,000 in the US alone. We weren't the first hit, it would be ridiculous.

I think we will really hit the panic button around 10-20k cases. But this chart shows the trajectory if we simply do nothing. You can also use it to predict when strict measures will be taken based on what number you think people will find unacceptable. I think massive action will occur between April 1 and 7. I don't think Boston is happening this year.

Washington State will probably first to be fully quarantined, then Portland Oregon. While the CDC talks abut "transparency", the meetings behind closed doors are now classified.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-secrecy-exclusive/exclusive-white-house-told-federal-health-agency-to-classify-coronavirus-deliberations-sources-idUSKBN20Y2LM

Denmark in full lock down. They have people until Friday... Friday full lockdown two weeks. They went from 10 to 541 cases in three days.

Trump banning air travel with Europe (except UK).

wtfbbq wrote:

By The Numbers wrote:

Coronavirus cases increase 10x every 15-20 days. This means in the USA we will have:

March 15: 1k cases

April 1: 10k cases

April 15: 100k cases

May 1: 1 Million cases

Obviously it might not go that high if a quarantine is put in place. But you should expect the USA to start shutting down by early April.

i can't see it getting past 100k.

The US will do containment/mandatory social distancing/quarantining before then.

Right?

I mean, there's no way it goes over 100,000 in the US alone. We weren't the first hit, it would be ridiculous.

Of course it'll be over 100,000. Half the country thinks this is some type of political ploy by the Democrats. My Republican family members literally think this is the flu. When my stepdad dies they'll probably blame it on Obama too.

Wuhan-400 wrote:

Washington State will probably first to be fully quarantined, then Portland Oregon.

...

WA first, but Portland? No one taking it serious here. Oh, I see. Shamruck run still on. Blazers game still on. Both ironically sponsored by a health company.

I looked at the numbers. For the number of cases, Oregon has the worst response in the country. They don't want to close schools because it would hurt low income workers. The governor is doing some cap and trade thing. Shamrock run still on? Basketball still going on when NCAA cancelled fans? Unbelievable. Is Oregon a red state?

covid-19 wrote:

[quote]wtfbbq wrote:

[quote]By The Numbers wrote:

Of course it'll be over 100,000. Half the country thinks this is some type of political ploy by the Democrats. My Republican family members literally think this is the flu. When my stepdad dies they'll probably blame it on Obama too.

Same with my highly educated coworkers (engineers). They think it is the “flu”, less deadly than the normal flu and less contagious. When/if they get corrected, they do some hand waving about all the people that don’t get sick from it, yadda yadda yadda. They’re pissed that basketball games might be played without fans and that colleges are switching to online only classes.

bubbadeeboos wrote:

covid-19 wrote:

[quote]wtfbbq wrote:

[quote]By The Numbers wrote:

Of course it'll be over 100,000. Half the country thinks this is some type of political ploy by the Democrats. My Republican family members literally think this is the flu. When my stepdad dies they'll probably blame it on Obama too.

Same with my highly educated coworkers (engineers). They think it is the “flu”, less deadly than the normal flu and less contagious. When/if they get corrected, they do some hand waving about all the people that don’t get sick from it, yadda yadda yadda. They’re pissed that basketball games might be played without fans and that colleges are switching to online only classes.

Exactly. It is worse than the flu

Let's say lilly pads grow in a pond by doubling every day and it's full on the 30th day.

Q: After how many days is the pond half full?

A: it is half full on the 29th day.

Now what's it look like on day 10? Almost empty...

Geometric progression is hard to fathom for many people.

lilly pond wrote:

Let's say lilly pads grow in a pond by doubling every day and it's full on the 30th day.

Q: After how many days is the pond half full?

A: it is half full on the 29th day.

Now what's it look like on day 10? Almost empty...

Geometric progression is hard to fathom for many people.

Great example!!!

lilly pond wrote:

Let's say lilly pads grow in a pond by doubling every day and it's full on the 30th day.

Q: After how many days is the pond half full?

A: it is half full on the 29th day.

Now what's it look like on day 10? Almost empty...

Geometric progression is hard to fathom for many people.

If you are more of a visual learner

wtfbbq wrote:

By The Numbers wrote:

Coronavirus cases increase 10x every 15-20 days. This means in the USA we will have:

March 15: 1k cases

April 1: 10k cases

April 15: 100k cases

May 1: 1 Million cases

Obviously it might not go that high if a quarantine is put in place. But you should expect the USA to start shutting down by early April.

i can't see it getting past 100k.

The US will do containment/mandatory social distancing/quarantining before then.

Right?

I mean, there's no way it goes over 100,000 in the US alone. We weren't the first hit, it would be ridiculous.

Especially in the US, the numbers could be a lot higher than anywhere else, since not many have sick leave. People will get sick and spread it out a lot more while working for fast food restaurants.

Medicare for all looked never better.

Vote for Bernie right now.

UmbrellaMan wrote:

lilly pond wrote:

Let's say lilly pads grow in a pond by doubling every day and it's full on the 30th day.

Q: After how many days is the pond half full?

A: it is half full on the 29th day.

Now what's it look like on day 10? Almost empty...

Geometric progression is hard to fathom for many people.

If you are more of a visual learner

https://witf.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/vtl07.math.number.exp.lilyescape/lily-pad-escape/

Unfortunately, this example is still too advanced for many Let's Run posters. Or the President, for that matter.

IF there was a flu strain that was 2.x mortality for high school students, we'd do something like close high schools, to isolate those who face risk.

But this is risky for older folks with cardio issues, by-and-large. Too difficult to figure this out, huh?

1. Trump doesn't want to rattle those people, his base, or he'll seem inept (!).

2. More certain, he doesn't want to rattle the markets, for obvious reasons.

In Norway we have tried to prevent spreading from day one. We could track back the first 300 cases or so, but now we cant anymore. And we have a population of 5 million people. Americans don't do that much testing. You already have lots of spreading and the hospitals wont have enough respiratory machines or equipment to handle it. You are already to late

Bad Wigins wrote:

There are more than 6,000 hospitals in the US, and only 1040 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Even in the unlikely event that the case load increases by a consistent 5% per day, there will still be only 2600 cases 20 days from now. The hospitals would have to flip a coin to see who gets one.

The only infrastructure that could possibly be overwhelmed is whoever is in charge of dealing with mobs of panicky idiots. Fortunately there are vigilantes like me helping out.

https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

Wigins-

No one likes you when you blather about anything but running. You're just not a likeable person.

stop. writing.

the Bad part is accurate wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

There are more than 6,000 hospitals in the US, and only 1040 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Even in the unlikely event that the case load increases by a consistent 5% per day, there will still be only 2600 cases 20 days from now. The hospitals would have to flip a coin to see who gets one.

The only infrastructure that could possibly be overwhelmed is whoever is in charge of dealing with mobs of panicky idiots. Fortunately there are vigilantes like me helping out.

https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

Wigins-

No one likes you when you blather about anything but running. You're just not a likeable person.

stop. writing.

****************************************

It's not just that he's such a gargantuan *a**hole*, it's that he's always f***ing WRONG about every subject he pretends to be some kind of galaxy-brain genius about.

I don't know what the guy does for a living, but it's a good bet he's some kind of engineer. Engineers tend to be poorly educated and ignorant about most things in life, but because they know a little math (and most Americans, of course, know *zero*) they think that somehow qualifies them to give 'expert' analysis on everything in the world --even though they rarely have any idea what the f*** they're talking about.

It'll be fun to see how his 'genius' prediction above bears out. He pompously tells us that 2600 cases by April 1 is a 'worst-case' scenario.

We're already over 1400.

The growth rate this a**hole pegs at well less than 5% actually looks more like 20-25% right now.

(Today is a lot lower, but that's probably just a blip.)

My guess is that in two weeks his prediction will look unbelievably stupid --like pretty much everything else he says.

(I think he also made an equally-stupid pompous prediction last week that the stock-market carnage was 'already over.' Broad markets down another 15-plus % since then, and over 25% from the top.)

Anybody paying serious attention to this dip-sh*t --or any other self-important nerd playing with his calculator, pompously lecturing folks about exponential growth and logarithmic scales, while unable to correctly process or make sense of the simplest actual data-- deserves what they get.