10 DAYS TO COLLAPSE, warns Tom Bossert former Homeland Security Advisor

There are more than 6,000 hospitals in the US, and only 1040 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Even in the unlikely event that the case load increases by a consistent 5% per day, there will still be only 2600 cases 20 days from now. The hospitals would have to flip a coin to see who gets one.

The only infrastructure that could possibly be overwhelmed is whoever is in charge of dealing with mobs of panicky idiots. Fortunately there are vigilantes like me helping out.

https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

Bad Wigins wrote:

There are more than 6,000 hospitals in the US, and only 1040 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Even in the unlikely event that the case load increases by a consistent 5% per day, there will still be only 2600 cases 20 days from now. The hospitals would have to flip a coin to see who gets one.

Only 950k or so beds in USA, 100k ICU of which only about 20k are available, once those 20k are filled, death rate will sky rocket.

Angela Merkel says she expects around 60-70 per cent of Germans will be infected with the coronavirus, which equates to about 53 million people. Reportedly, the German Parliament fell completely silent when Merkel stated the number.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Even in the unlikely event that the case load increases by a consistent 5% per day

Did you not know that cases are growing at an average of 20% a day outside China? That's just for confirmed cases. Or did you mean specifically in the US? There, the average growth rate is 27%/day over the last 10 days, 24%/day over the last 20 days.

Bad Wigins wrote:

The only infrastructure that could possibly be overwhelmed is whoever is in charge of dealing with mobs of panicky idiots.

Did you not know that the health system in the worst hit parts of Italy is overwhelmed and close to breaking point?

Do you not know these things, or are you trolling? Now is not a time for trolling.

The bell tolls for Trump

coronaidiot wrote:

The bell tolls for Trump

You mean the good odds that he's alredy been exposed, and VP Pence, and probably 2/3 or more of Congress already?

If you mean the elections, well, those probably won't be happening.

UK government probably just as infected already, considering up to 4 weeks before sickness sets in, while being contagious during that 4 week incubation period:

"Mr. Kurtz, he dead.

(Conrad, Heart of Darkness.

Intended as inappropriate literary allusion only)

The damage being economically and socially by the over the top panic from a virus that to date has killed 1 in 10 million of the American population is far worse than the damage done by the actual virus.

Corona virus is worse than the flu, probably, but don't believe the death rate, its almost certainly much less because of lack of reported cases. Containment efforts at this point are a lost cause. Its spread to too many places we dont yet know about. Accept it's not that bad and everyone go about their lives normally.

Listen to Elon!

Americans can't afford to pay for the treatment. So my guess is the hospitals won't get overrun.

Also nobody is able to take sick leave.

Vote for Bernie Sanders if you want a better health care system.

Bad Wigins wrote:

There are more than 6,000 hospitals in the US, and only 1040 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Even in the unlikely event that the case load increases by a consistent 5% per day, there will still be only 2600 cases 20 days from now. The hospitals would have to flip a coin to see who gets one.

The only infrastructure that could possibly be overwhelmed is whoever is in charge of dealing with mobs of panicky idiots. Fortunately there are vigilantes like me helping out.

https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

Case loads have been increasing 20-30% per day.

3/9 am - 546 cases

3/11 am - 1016 cases.

You constantly ignore the facts to make your own assertions.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

The damage being economically and socially by the over the top panic from a virus that to date has killed 1 in 10 million of the American population is far worse than the damage done by the actual virus.

Corona virus is worse than the flu, probably, but don't believe the death rate, its almost certainly much less because of lack of reported cases. Containment efforts at this point are a lost cause. Its spread to too many places we dont yet know about. Accept it's not that bad and everyone go about their lives normally.

Listen to Elon!

Early data shows 10% of reported cases need hospitalization. As the hospital beds are taken, care slows, worsens, or both. This will increase the death rate.

The only way we maintain a low death rate is by being diligent and slowing this thing below our healthcare capacity.

The “panic” is because some of us can see the forest from the trees. Imagine there are 1000 severely drunk drivers leaving a party. They all live in different cities equal distance apart, and they all decide to race home. The first minute of the race, no one has died. Would you consider the fear as panic or genuine concern over a very high possibility of dire outcomes?

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

The damage being economically and socially by the over the top panic from a virus that to date has killed 1 in 10 million of the American population is far worse than the damage done by the actual virus.

Corona virus is worse than the flu, probably, but don't believe the death rate, its almost certainly much less because of lack of reported cases. Containment efforts at this point are a lost cause. Its spread to too many places we dont yet know about. Accept it's not that bad and everyone go about their lives normally.

Listen to Elon!

In nothern Italy, hospitals went from normal operations to being overrun with COVID-19 related pneumonia cases in about a week.

Seattle reported 74 new confirmed cases yesterday. The first patient in Seattle to be confirmed with COVID-19 arrived at SEA-TAC on January 15. COVID-19 has probably been spreading in the PNW for weeks completely unchecked.

It is like the old shampoo commercial where a girl says she loves her shampoo and then told two friends, who told two friends, and so on. Each time they say that, the screen splits by two, then four, eight, sixteen, thirty two. We are at the point where the virus has escaped containment and will spread rapidly.

The efforts to contain the virus in the US have been a complete joke. Six employees in my kids' school district are under quarantine because they traveled abroad to hot spots. One of the employees had symptoms and tried to get a test. He contacted the school district's insurer, several hospitals and was told that they had no tests right now. The school district will not disclose which schools the employees work at until someone gets a positive test. That means that kids who come down with symptoms will not get tested because no one knows which school has possible exposure. Doctors are not sending for tests unless people have traveled abroad or have had contact with a person who tested positive. So, we very well may have exposure in the school system that is going completely unchecked right now.

This is not going to get better. This is just going to get worse. My area is on the gulf coast. We are very warm and humid for this time of year (low 80s) for the next two week. That may save us from a severe outbreak as the virus does not spread as easily when it is warm and humid. But the rest of the US is weeks away from getting spring weather.

The fact that Wigins gets more pushback than Wuhan-400 is pathetic. Both extremes at both ends but everyon just laps up Wuhan-400's garbage like it's fact.

Drink more Corona beer wrote:

Americans can't afford to pay for the treatment. So my guess is the hospitals won't get overrun.

Also nobody is able to take sick leave.

Vote for Bernie Sanders if you want a better health care system.

Yes, so you can wait 6 months in pain as I did to have your gallbladder removed.

Really... wrote:

The fact that Wigins gets more pushback than Wuhan-400 is pathetic. Both extremes at both ends but everyon just laps up Wuhan-400's garbage like it's fact.

Wuhan-400 posts articles and statements made by others.

Bad Wigins post his contrarian opinions to those articles.

Example will go like this:

Article:

WHO says up to 35% of Americans will get Covid 19.

Wigins:

No way 35% will get it because it won’t spread in July.

Wuhan posts 'articles' from the most questionable sources you can find obviously targeted at creating a spreading fear. He's not posting stuff straight from WHO and/or CDC. The other day he posted some garbage about how New York is secretly ordering 2 million body bags. I mean, com'n.

Really... wrote:

Wuhan posts 'articles' from the most questionable sources you can find obviously targeted at creating a spreading fear. He's not posting stuff straight from WHO and/or CDC. The other day he posted some garbage about how New York is secretly ordering 2 million body bags. I mean, com'n.

Yeah, that "RUMORS: NYC Discussing QUARANTINE; Allegedly Ordered 2 Million Body Bags!" on March 8th, and by the 10th, the 1 mile Quaratine zone was announced. Not sure why you'd scoff at the 2 million body bags, considering the infection rate Merkel and other leaders are publicly stating they are expecting for their countries, and the population of NYC. Do you really expect NYC to publicly admit they're ordering huge amounts of body bags? That will only be admitted to long after the fact.

“Harvard University will close only for an act of God, such as the end of the world,’’ former Harvard Dean of Students Archie Epps III once said.

All students must be vacated in three days. Harvard will be closed.

Read between the coronavirus lines.

Anyway, instead of Merkel expecting 60-70% infection of German population on Zerohedge, here's the same article from the BBC:

Also from same article:

New York's governor announced that troops would be sent into New Rochelle, a town north of the city, in an attempt to contain an outbreak of the virus, as the total number of US cases passed 1,000 on Wednesday.

A one-mile (1.6km) containment zone was in force around New Rochelle - with all of those in the zone quarantined.

[...]

A UK health minister, Nadine Dorries, said she had tested positive for coronavirus and was self-isolating at home.

==========

There, for those who like getting the news a day or two late from "reputable" sites.

Jamesengle6 wrote:

"Mr. Kurtz, he dead.

(Conrad, Heart of Darkness.

Intended as inappropriate literary allusion only)

The horror, the horror

Using a screen capture of the ARCGIS website data on 29 Jan showing 7,783 cases and today's total of 121,564 cases (11 Mar), it works out to a compounding rate of about 7%/day. At that rate, we should reach 500,000 cases in three weeks and 1M cases in about a month.

This isn't a forecast or an opinion, it's just an extrapolation of data.