Bad Wigins wrote:
Then let it run its course as quickly as possible and get the whole thing over with.
You really are dunce. If we let it run it's course quickly, 10s of millions will die and there could easily be 100-200 million hospitalizations.
Bad Wigins wrote:
Then let it run its course as quickly as possible and get the whole thing over with.
You really are dunce. If we let it run it's course quickly, 10s of millions will die and there could easily be 100-200 million hospitalizations.
run it's course? wrote:
Bad Wigins wrote:
Then let it run its course as quickly as possible and get the whole thing over with.
You really are dunce. If we let it run it's course quickly, 10s of millions will die and there could easily be 100-200 million hospitalizations.
Make up stupid sh!it, that's bound to help.
coronavirus is Thanos wrote:
So people showing no symptoms can spread it, and as China tried to keep it contained within Wuhan and has failed.
Wrong. You spread it with symptoms. Do some schooling and stop rimming your dad.
containment is not useless.
it slows spread.
that helps by easying the overload of medical institutions, and allowing larger number of sick people access to ICU and oxygen ventilators, which are otherwise in short supply.
also it buys time, during which cure or vaccine may be found.
also, over time, viriuses tend to mutate toward less fatal versions
Excellent post (and a good addendum to elphino's chart). Pretty clear cut.
math is great wrote:
With exponential growth, one of the main factors is the rate of growth. The point of austerity measures is to ensure the pace of the spread is slowed until there is a vaccine.
Math problem:
Let’s say 1 person had the virus today — patient 1.
Let’s say a vaccine will be commercially available in exactly 12 months.
If the virus doubled every day, all 7.7 billion people in the world would have the virus in less than 34 days.
If the virus doubles every week, it would take 225 days for everyone to get it. This is the rate of growth we’re seeing now. It’s doubling in less than a week (outside of China).
If the virus doubles every 3 weeks, in 1 year’s time, less than 200,000 people would have contracted the virus and the vaccine would be ready.
The reason for containment is to slow the growth rate, it makes a big difference.
wtfbbq wrote:
Containment will not stop the virus, that's correct. It's past the point of containment and 100% containment is pretty much impossible.
The realistic goal, however, is to slow it down. If tens of thousands get sick all at once, it will overflow hospitals/those seeking care.
If tens of thousands get sick over the course of a few months, it will be much easier to take care of them/other people seeking help or treatment.
I agree with you as does much or all of the following article that was linked to in another thread here:
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/6/21161234/coronavirus-covid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccineChina have contained it. The only country in the world with the state resources to actually be able to contain it.
12. Comparing it to the seasonal flu, or to Kobe Bryant, or to 9/11, is just so freaking dumb it's scary.
From October 2019 to Febraury 2020 in Italy 300 peolpe died directly for the seasonal flu and another number from 5000 to 8000 died indirectly for the seasonal flu . With almost 18000000 of people infected by the seasonal flu . Normally you have fever 38° 39° for a few days throath pain ecc. and then little by little you are back in shape . And nobody talk about this , and there is a Vaccine for it.
Now with Corona virus more than 50% of people has Zero symptoms.
All those people reported died for Corona virus , died with the Corona virus not because the Corona virus. They already had serious sickness.With this I dont want to say that is nothing
The bad thing is that in the worst scenario it causes a serious pneumonia making the person hypoxic. Of course this need special treatment and in people that already have others serious sickness , they just cant stand this treatment to make them breathing well. And the fear is that there are no place in hospitals to treat all the people that need intensive therapy.
If colleges start keeping students at home, how can they allow participation in sports.
alarmist bs much? wrote:
run it's course? wrote:
You really are dunce. If we let it run it's course quickly, 10s of millions will die and there could easily be 100-200 million hospitalizations.
Make up stupid sh!it, that's bound to help.
It's not made up. Your comprehension is low. The scenario described in that post is if no containment measures are taken, and the virus is simply allowed to spread freely and rampantly so that it runs it's course.
You do know the flu in general would kill manyfolds more people (several million) if vaccines didn't exist? Vaccines are also a form of containment. Currently, there are no vaccines for coronavirus. So, the best course action is do everything humanly possible to slow the pace of the spread.
run it's course? wrote:
alarmist bs much? wrote:
Make up stupid sh!it, that's bound to help.
It's not made up. Your comprehension is low. The scenario described in that post is if no containment measures are taken, and the virus is simply allowed to spread freely and rampantly so that it runs it's course.
You do know the flu in general would kill manyfolds more people (several million) if vaccines didn't exist? Vaccines are also a form of containment. Currently, there are no vaccines for coronavirus. So, the best course action is do everything humanly possible to slow the pace of the spread.
It is made up. Stop making up stupid alarmist bs. You have no idea how the virus will spread or what the death rate will be. Even the top immunologists don't know. So what makes you an expert?
EXACtlyeee wrote:
coronavirus is Thanos wrote:
So people showing no symptoms can spread it, and as China tried to keep it contained within Wuhan and has failed.
Wrong. You spread it with symptoms. Do some schooling and stop rimming your dad.
Ok, then why are we doing containment effort of entire companies working from home when most people are not showing any symptoms? It makes sense in terms of containment if people showing symptoms are contained.
Also, this article states that coronavirus was spread by someone showing no symptoms:
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-research-woman-with-no-symptoms-infects-five-peopleYou must be pretty dumb to make such strong statement and it took me 2 seconds to find at least 10 articles that you're wrong.
chekitout wrote:
Excellent post (and a good addendum to elphino's chart). Pretty clear cut.
math is great wrote:
With exponential growth, one of the main factors is the rate of growth. The point of austerity measures is to ensure the pace of the spread is slowed until there is a vaccine.
Math problem:
Let’s say 1 person had the virus today — patient 1.
Let’s say a vaccine will be commercially available in exactly 12 months.
If the virus doubled every day, all 7.7 billion people in the world would have the virus in less than 34 days.
If the virus doubles every week, it would take 225 days for everyone to get it. This is the rate of growth we’re seeing now. It’s doubling in less than a week (outside of China).
If the virus doubles every 3 weeks, in 1 year’s time, less than 200,000 people would have contracted the virus and the vaccine would be ready.
The reason for containment is to slow the growth rate, it makes a big difference.
Problem is though that half effort containment is happening. People who may have Coronavirus (not being tested) are still going on with their daily lives. Some are showing no symptoms or very mild symptoms and not being in isolation. People may be staying home and not going to work, but still interacting with families, friends, grocery stores, etc.
If true containment is happening, then yes, it's effective. BUT, it's half effort containment which doesn't work. It's similar to six degrees of Kevin Bacon. Without full containment, then I'm still within six degrees from anyone in the world.
alarmist bs much? wrote:
run it's course? wrote:
It's not made up. Your comprehension is low. The scenario described in that post is if no containment measures are taken, and the virus is simply allowed to spread freely and rampantly so that it runs it's course.
You do know the flu in general would kill manyfolds more people (several million) if vaccines didn't exist? Vaccines are also a form of containment. Currently, there are no vaccines for coronavirus. So, the best course action is do everything humanly possible to slow the pace of the spread.
It is made up. Stop making up stupid alarmist bs. You have no idea how the virus will spread or what the death rate will be. Even the top immunologists don't know. So what makes you an expert?
Estimates of growth rate, death rate, and number of people that will get it are widely available if you're reading. At first, I thought your comprehension was low, but now, I know it's a literacy problem. Nothing I said was alarmist. Again, we're talking about the "uncontained" scenario. Where everyone continues to do what they have been doing. Luckily, most government leaders DON'T think like you and have issued state(s) of emergency protocols and guidelines for how to slow the spread.
sp2 wrote:
****************************
1. *Nothing* the Chinese government is telling you should be trusted. (Not by anyone with an IQ over 80, anyway.)
2. Similarly, under a Nazi-criminal Trump administration, NOTHING our federal government tells you should be trusted. (Actually, under the Trump admin, the smart baseline assumption is that the truth is generally pretty close to the exact opposite of anything they say.)
3. Most of the serious epidemiology experts I've been hearing seem to think that containment efforts will ultimately fail to stop the spread, and that eventually something in the rough ballpark of half the world's population will be infected.
4. It appears that a sizable proportion of those will get very sick, and a sizable proportion of *those* will die from it.
5. If it's 2% of those who get infected (which seems entirely plausible, based on the little we know so far), that's maybe 1% of the population.
6. That's 70 million people. In the US, that's 3.5 million people.
7. If you consider that somehow 'trivial,' or 'no big deal,' you're an absolute moron.
8. The only foreseeable development that seems likely to alter the above prognosis in a major way (as far as I'm aware, so far, anyway) is the creation and administration of an effective vaccine.
9. It sounds like there's a slim chance that could happen in a matter of months, and a better chance it could happen in 1-2 years.
10. If serious containment efforts have a chance to slow the spread enough that many less people might be infected before such time as #8 could happen, then, obviously, you can make a case that it's a good idea to try and do that.
11. Obviously, you need to try and weigh the cost (mostly the cost of massive economic dislocation and slow-down) against that potential benefit,... but it sure as hell looks like massive economic damage is gonna happen no matter what.
12. Comparing it to the seasonal flu, or to Kobe Bryant, or to 9/11, is just so freaking dumb it's scary.
Comparing it to the 1918 flu pandemic, sure, *that* makes a lot of sense, and is certainly at least somewhat useful. Comparing it to routine seasonal flu is just stunningly stupid, yet that's what 98% of the morons publicly opining about it continue to do every day.
13. *One* thing is absolutely clear: the arrival of this crisis when America's held hostage by the most corrupt, and most incompetent, federal government our country has ever had in its history
*guarantees* that the outcome will be much, much, much worse than it should have been or needed to be.
THAT you can take to the bank.
...do you honestly believe that 3.5 million Americans will die from COVID-19?
run it's course? wrote:
alarmist bs much? wrote:
It is made up. Stop making up stupid alarmist bs. You have no idea how the virus will spread or what the death rate will be. Even the top immunologists don't know. So what makes you an expert?
Estimates of growth rate, death rate, and number of people that will get it are widely available if you're reading. At first, I thought your comprehension was low, but now, I know it's a literacy problem. Nothing I said was alarmist. Again, we're talking about the "uncontained" scenario. Where everyone continues to do what they have been doing. Luckily, most government leaders DON'T think like you and have issued state(s) of emergency protocols and guidelines for how to slow the spread.
Read your own post.
" If we let it run it's course quickly, 10s of millions will die and there could easily be 100-200 million hospitalizations"
You are being ridiculous.
The movement of this disease is different than that of the 1918 pandemic in that the close quarters of troops and the environmental conditions that they fought in contributed to the rapid exposure to and effective damage from the disease. Also medical capabilities are more advanced now than at that time. The death statistics of cov-19 will be incomparably less than those of the the flu epidemic. An interesting side note is that my grandfather fought the Germans in the trenches in France and his diary from the war made no mention of catchng the flu.
You've backpedaled from "containment is useless" to "our containment is half-assed so it isn't effective enough to slow anything".
alien observer wrote:
The movement of this disease is different than that of the 1918 pandemic in that the close quarters of troops and the environmental conditions that they fought in contributed to the rapid exposure to and effective damage from the disease. Also medical capabilities are more advanced now than at that time. The death statistics of cov-19 will be incomparably less than those of the the flu epidemic. An interesting side note is that my grandfather fought the Germans in the trenches in France and his diary from the war made no mention of catchng the flu.
Your grandfather not catching the flu doesn’t prove anything. Fake news
alarmist bs much? wrote:
run it's course? wrote:
Estimates of growth rate, death rate, and number of people that will get it are widely available if you're reading. At first, I thought your comprehension was low, but now, I know it's a literacy problem. Nothing I said was alarmist. Again, we're talking about the "uncontained" scenario. Where everyone continues to do what they have been doing. Luckily, most government leaders DON'T think like you and have issued state(s) of emergency protocols and guidelines for how to slow the spread.
Read your own post.
" If we let it run it's course quickly, 10s of millions will die and there could easily be 100-200 million hospitalizations"
You are being ridiculous.
globally.