Is Galen Rupp vulnerable on Saturday? Ed Eyestone thinks Jared Ward has a shot at beating him

BYWho wrote:

runnER/DR wrote:

Ward was 1:15 behind Rupp at Rio. If Ward is in BETTER shape and Rupp is in WORSE shape(and 2 years younger) why wouldn't he have a shot?

+1

Because Rupp is the best US American Distance Runner, ever. American GOAT. Ward is a nice guy, but doesn't have the same record. The same credentials. The same results.

Its the same scenario as Bekele. If Bekele was injured, then no namers beat him. If hes healthy, hes the king lion. Same thing with Rupp. If he has achilles issues theb that is the reason people like ward will try to beat him. If hes healthy, end of discussion

Bullet_Proof wrote:

BYWho wrote:

+1

Because Rupp is the best US American Distance Runner, ever. American GOAT. Ward is a nice guy, but doesn't have the same record. The same credentials. The same results.

Its the same scenario as Bekele. If Bekele was injured, then no namers beat him. If hes healthy, hes the king lion. Same thing with Rupp. If he has achilles issues theb that is the reason people like ward will try to beat him. If hes healthy, end of discussion

The question at hand is if on Saturday, does Jared Ward stand a chance of beating Galen Rupp. This is a question if in perfect health and perfect conditions if Ward can beat Rupp. So going back to the original question, yes, Ward has a chance to beat Rupp on Saturday given the reality of the situation of both runners.

Ultra > Marathon wrote:

Rupp won’t finish +1

My gut says he’ll blow a gasket.

running up hills, especially when fatigued, isn't the best thing for the achilles either.

It all dont matter....Rupp is DNF for sure

Ward absolutely has a shot!

I don't follow the guys' health profiles or training. Simpleminded: I just go by what I see at the races. Until he reaches forty+ Or somebody comes along (Nico? ) With his talent, I have to go by what I have seen him do.

*All things being equal (health and circumstances)*, I can't see any one who can do what Rupp has done displacing him at the OT.

Anyone who can *not* do what he has done...."

Eyestone did know how to run in the big ones. I think he was 5th in the World Cross Country the season he was third in the conference.

FatSlowOldGuy wrote:

Eyestone did know how to run in the big ones. I think he was 5th in the World Cross Country the season he was third in the conference.

Huh?

It's been said by many in the past week including me. You are just writing a longer thought about it. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins, DNFs, or is hampered by later in the race, but hangs on to finish in or just out a qualifying spot.

ShilohDoesntCare wrote:

The Olympics is now a trash event because of the prevalence of pacemakers in the WMM. There should not be pacers at these events.

The concatenation of those two sentences baffles me. The Olympic and world championship marathons are two of the few marathons that continue to engage my attention, precisely because they lack pacemakers. (Among the WMM, Boston and NYC aren't bad, but the fields can be uneven, and perhaps sometimes skewed in favor of U.S. or certain other selected runners.)

runnER/DR wrote:

Ward was 1:15 behind Rupp at Rio. If Ward is in BETTER shape and Rupp is in WORSE shape(and 2 years younger) why wouldn't he have a shot?

Yeah and once you factor in the clownshoes it's a pretty even race

I think Rupp beats Ward and makes the team, most likely with the win. But then he doesn’t start at the olympics.

helloworld111 wrote:

What makes Rupp a better talent? And or what does "talent" mean? I'm curious because this is a word that i see used over and over again on these boards.

Among other things, the willingness to do a 20 mile run on a 300m grass loop.

Those hills are going to make an impact on Rupp. Remember when he ran Manchester in 2016 and got dropped on the hills on a cold day? Ended up 10th behind both Korir and Fauble. Rupp has always been a better warm weather runner. I definitely wouldn't say he is a lock to win. Ward is a very analytical racer. I am pretty sure he already knows this course will be almost 3 minutes slower than a flat marathon. Given the cold and wind forecast, it could even be a little slower.

All you guys are crazy.

I think Eyestone is completely within his rights here. He maintains a diplomatic, hesitant tone while talking about AlSal & co., which is the smart, uncontroversial route to take right now.

Eyestone is crazy for suggesting Wardy could beat Rupp? Like it or not, Rupp is still recovering from that achilles surgery. All we have is a DNF and a solid tune-up half to judge him by.

For those of you talking about how much better a 'talent' Galen is, yeah. You're right. But we're not taking them and comparing them at the best point in their respective careers. We're talking about now.

I really, really doubt Galen's ability to have an incredible performance, especially on this course. I'm not saying he's not going to make the Olympic team--I think he will. But he's definitely not a lock for 1st. I think there are a number of guys that have fantastic chances at taking Rupp down. The question is, who will it be?

A lot of focus on Galen, and rightfully so. But the biggest US marathon story of 2019 was Lenny Korir dropping a 2:07. Not only that, but he has been super consistent on the track and roads the last few years. At least Ed mentioned him.

The clear top 3 are Rupp, Korir, and Ward if they perform. The last few trials have gone out "slow" and picked up 2nd half (if my memory is correct), but I somehow doubt Lenny will let that happen tomorrow.

I'm with Rupp DNF.

No matter, though, he was fading hard in Rio, and Ward was coming on. I have neither in my top three, but it's not hard for me to see Ward taking Rupp.

round and round wrote:

helloworld111 wrote:

What makes Rupp a better talent? And or what does "talent" mean? I'm curious because this is a word that i see used over and over again on these boards.

Rupp ran a 13:37 5,000m in high school...

after al sal gave him testosterone and those famous andro gel rub downs with happy endings...so you might want to put an asterisk by it......

irunfastXC wrote:

All you guys are crazy.

I think Eyestone is completely within his rights here. He maintains a diplomatic, hesitant tone while talking about AlSal & co., which is the smart, uncontroversial route to take right now.

Diplomatic, yes, but sorry, it does sound stupid to suggest that a perfectionist and control freak like Salazar didn't know that he was violating anti-doping rules on at least those three occasions he got banned for:

"And I’m of the camp, in terms of Alberto, that yeah, he pushed the envelope. But he pushed it in regard to at least what he felt was within at least in the gray area that was still a legal area."

Ridiculo.