Coronavirus is in California - First case not from known infected person - Sh!t just got real!

Sales of Corona Beer are way down, People think it causes the Corona Virus, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-27/corona-beer-takes-a-hit-from-coronavirus-as-brand-image-suffers?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twi

DistaceCoach10k wrote:

60 confirmed cases in the United States. 370 million residence. That is 1 case per 6 million people. The experts need to give it their full attention and make it a top priority. The citizens need to focus on their lives and not blow it out of proportion.

I genuinely cant tell if people are actually this stupid and can't see the gaping problem with this reasoning, or if this is just trolling.

Parsec wrote:

DistaceCoach10k wrote:

60 confirmed cases in the United States. 370 million residence. That is 1 case per 6 million people. The experts need to give it their full attention and make it a top priority. The citizens need to focus on their lives and not blow it out of proportion.

I genuinely cant tell if people are actually this stupid and can't see the gaping problem with this reasoning, or if this is just trolling.

No, they're honestly that stupid. But they'll be the first to call you up and beg for supplies when the time comes. Watch.

Parsec wrote:

DistaceCoach10k wrote:

60 confirmed cases in the United States. 370 million residence. That is 1 case per 6 million people. The experts need to give it their full attention and make it a top priority. The citizens need to focus on their lives and not blow it out of proportion.

I genuinely cant tell if people are actually this stupid and can't see the gaping problem with this reasoning, or if this is just trolling.

Lol imagine thinking that this virus would take just weeks to infect its maximum number of people, when similarly contagious viruses like flu take half a year for their number to peak.

Imagine not understanding the impact of an Ro above 1, and the exponential growth in cases that results.

Imagine not realizing the virus has an average 5 day incubation period that can be up to two weeks, meaning developing cases are not yet detected.

Imagine not realizing this started in China in November and cases didn't start expoding till late Jan.

Imagine not realizing US cases weren't likely seeded until January and thus are 1-2 months behind China.

Imagine thinking something as contagious as the flu, but 20x more lethal and causing severe illness in 20% of cases is not a concern for an overcrowded medical system.

Imagine not being able to realize that while this is no holocaust and no tens of millions won't die, if we take some action, are more careful with hand washing and hygiene, limit social distance when possible, and track cases and use quarantine we might be able to keep the impact of this below that of the flu.

Imagine being so incapable of thought those things don't register.

COVID-19 fatality rate by age:

AGE

DEATH RATE*

80+ years old

14.8%

70-79 years old

8.0%

60-69 years old

3.6%

50-59 years old

1.3%

40-49 years old

0.4%

30-39 years old

0.2%

20-29 years old

0.2%

10-19 years old

0.2%

0-9 years old

no fatalities

COVID-19 fatality rate by preexisting condition:

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION

DEATH RATE*

Cardiovascular disease

10.5%

Diabetes

7.3%

Chronic respiratory disease

6.3%

Hypertension

6.0%

Cancer

5.6%

no pre-existing conditions

0.9%

But yes let's all panic. It hasn't even killed a small child yet.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Parsec wrote:

DistaceCoach10k wrote:

60 confirmed cases in the United States. 370 million residence. That is 1 case per 6 million people. The experts need to give it their full attention and make it a top priority. The citizens need to focus on their lives and not blow it out of proportion.

I genuinely cant tell if people are actually this stupid and can't see the gaping problem with this reasoning, or if this is just trolling.

I'm with you on that. Funny how stupidity and trolling often indistinguishable. The sheer idiocy of some people's reasoning is staggering. Talking about how many cases there are in the States ignores the fact that we've barely been testing for this or that the total number of infected is a LOW and not an average, max, or even accurate count.

Modernity has given us some great things on a micro scale but really hurt us on the macro scale. We take safety for granted and don't at all understand the boundaries. It takes being personally affected for people to understand and that's crazy when it comes to life altering risks.

Hey chief, when diabetes or cardiovascular disease become highly contagious your argument will seem far less stupid.

Also f*** you for the "it only affects the elderly" crap. That is truly sociopaths reasoning. You're literally saying 'it's cool if some old folks die'. Never mind the number of people who end up being critically ill.

Nobody with a rational brain is "panicking". That's for people that read some headline and think it's the reckoning of mankind. Sure, these people exist, but they are going to panic regardless and over everything.

Now, in what you posted, 0.9% with no pre-existing conditions are dying, and close to 1% of those U50 are dying. That's 10x more deadly than flu off those numbers alone...but that's a bit spurious given that flu kills almost exclusively in the elderly, and even then only approaches a 0.1% CFR. So COVID is 10x lower bound and perhaps 100x upper bound as lethal as the flu.

Now let's look at the flu. It is a major issue every year taking millions of lives and resulting in tremendous medical care costs. There are also routine problems with hospital bed availability on a nationwide basis. Moreover...there is always a very aggressive push for vaccinations which is critical to keeping the spread of the flu somewhat under control due to herd immunity. In other words, we take the flu VERY seriously, and it still remains a major problem with lasting consequences.

Now look back at COVID. We have good Ro estimates. It's on par with flu, or perhaps worse than, depending on the paper in terms of transmissible. Then as above it's somewhere between 10x to 100x more lethal depending on the population you look at. It also does something the flu doesn't....20% of people develop severe or critical illness requiring hospital support and mechanical ventilation. Guess what happens if you don't have hospital beds and ventilators? That 1% or 2% number....now most of that 20% dies. So it's similarly transmissible, significantly more deadly, and with a significantly worse severity of illness than the flu. We also don't have a vaccine like we do for the flu.

We established the flu is not inconsequential in it's impact. You're not honestly, in good faith, suggesting we should completely ignore a "flu" that kills 10x-100x more people, that we have no vaccine for, and that causes severe illness in 20%.

You think we should just stick our heads in the sand? Not worry about our hygiene habits or be a little more cautious about the events and gatherings attend? That we shouldn't try to screen at risk individuals? That we shouldn't take preparations in case of a surge in demand for hospital beds?

Moreover, this is other aspect of your post that is...odd. It reads as if because it's only killing a modest amount of younger individuals, it somehow doesn't matter that it's decimating older populations. Even if you have some bizarre view that older people's live have no value, it doesn't change the fact that the cost of care for all these illness would be dramatic with lasting economic repercussions. Even on a totally utilitarian and selfish mindset, a tremendous number of the old getting sick and dying would have a dramatic impact on medical costs and economy.

R0 shouldn't be treated as a metric. It is distributional only. # of infected is RANDOM, often broadly dispersed, and always exposed to downward bias...ie. it defaults low.

Other than that you're spot on, and far more polite than I.

Another case of the Coronavirus of unknown origin in the U.S. This one also in the SF Bay area, but the South Bay this time. There is about 85 miles of Bay Area between the 2 points of infection. That doesn't bode well for all points between.

Let's face it, this is going to get MUCH worse before it gets better. The President had better wake up! Although, I'm sure he doesn't care that it's in California, his favorite state.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/28/santa-clara-county-announces-new-coronavirus-case/

Good post Parsec.

Anyone thought about all the travel at Spring break?

Hopefully they can get a more diverse Task Force to solve this Fast, https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-coronavirus-trump-lack-of-diversity

Breaking. Oregon. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/28/coronavirus-live-updates/

Ok, Now it's time to Panic! wrote:

Another case of the Coronavirus of unknown origin in the U.S. This one also in the SF Bay area, but the South Bay this time. There is about 85 miles of Bay Area between the 2 points of infection. That doesn't bode well for all points between.

Let's face it, this is going to get MUCH worse before it gets better. The President had better wake up! Although, I'm sure he doesn't care that it's in California, his favorite state.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/28/santa-clara-county-announces-new-coronavirus-case/

The president is very concerned about the corona virus and how it will effect Donald Trump's re-election. This could be his mission accomplished moment. This problem is not over for the USA and he looks and sounds foolish when he says this. The significance of Trump's credibility problem is highlighted when there is a national emergency.

Mike Pence has been set up as the fall guy when this falls apart.

How long can this Corona Virus .

douglas burke wrote:

How long can this Corona Virus last?.